Michael Kesselring was the main acquisition for the Buffalo Sabres in the offseason, or so we thought. It was intended that he would be the impact piece from the JJ Peterka trade and solidify the blue line.

The organization had him penciled in as a top-four defenseman alongside Owen Power. Six months later, Kesselring now finds himself out of the top six and perhaps as low as eighth on the depth chart at his position.

Although Kevyn Adams is no longer with the club, they’re lucky that Josh Doan has worked out for them as part of that deal. It’s rare to see a plan like this fall apart in a matter of months, leaving the player’s future with the team in doubt.

Injury

I wanted to dig into what happened with Kesselring this season to try to understand where things truly went wrong for the 26-year-old defender. What pushed him out of favor with Lindy Ruff?

It started to go downhill early for the American-born defender. He picked up a lower-body injury near the end of training camp, and it kept him out nearly the first month of the season. Once he returned, he was unable to establish a rhythm because he re-aggravated the injury, forcing him to miss more time.

Kesselring was in and out of the lineup, battling what I believe is an ankle injury. Something he acknowledged he’ll have to deal with for the remainder of the season.

We know how difficult it is for a hockey player to fight through a lower-body injury, especially an ankle. It impacts their skating and ability to engage in physical contact. He was never able to establish a true chemistry, and by the time he was back in the lineup, the Sabres’ top four was rolling. Kesselring was relegated to a third-pair role, where he remained inconsistent.

Penalties

For me, the skating is where I noticed the biggest difference this season with Kesselring compared to what I watched last year with Utah. Particularly in the defensive zone, it was evident. As I mentioned, the injury is likely playing a factor in this regard.

He was beaten to pucks far too often, and his footwork was messy when defending rushes. This resulted in not only defensive zone turnovers or chances against. Kesselring put himself in bad positions and was forced to take penalties. I think this may be one of the primary reasons that Ruff lost faith in the player.

Kesselring leads all Sabres players in penalties taken at 5 on 5 at 1.82 per hour. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the NHL for any player to be on the ice for at least 200 minutes. That’s something Ruff wasn’t willing to deal with for a player playing minimal minutes on the third pair and contributing nothing of significance elsewhere.

Below is an example of a play I’m talking about, where his footwork is sloppy while defending a rush. He takes himself out of position and makes a desperation play with his stick in Sam Bennett’s hands. It’s a soft call, but an example of the issues he was having.

The Panthers would score on this power play less than a minute later to tie the game.

Below is another penalty against the Tampa Bay Lightning that comes from a turnover on the wall. He doesn’t make a strong play with the puck and is forced to take down the Lightning forward.

Kesselring is playing a career-low 13:26 per game this season, and this is a primary reason.

Adjusting to the System

The Sabres system under Ruff asks a lot of the defensemen. I understand how it can be difficult to adjust and find your place within it. He wants his defenders to be able to skate, join the rush, feed transition with clean exits, and be active in the offensive zone. It’s one of the key elements that has made the Sabres dangerous this season.

We touched on the exits and microstats from All Three Zones are a mixed bag. He hasn’t been bad at exiting the puck with possession, but is by far the biggest culprit in clearing the puck out of the zone to the opponent. Resulting in lost possession and not how they want to play.

Some of his exit numbers grade out well this season, but it’s the inconsistency in limited ice time.

The offensive zone has been a struggle for Kesselring this season. He only has two assists through 32 games. He had 29 points in 82 games with Utah last season and 21 in 65 games with the Arizona Coyotes during the 2023-24 campaign.

I observed that he struggled to distribute the puck in the offensive zone. At times, he would get involved in the Sabres’ cycle, but didn’t have the vision to find forward-hitting openings with the defense. Kesselring began settling for shots from low-quality areas of the ice because of that inability.

He leads all Sabres defenseman in unblocked shot attempts at 5 on 5 this season. Not by a small margin either. According to Hockeystats.com, he has a unblocked shot attempt rate of 10.17 per hour at 5-on-5. Dahlin, the next closest, is at 8.11.

The Hockeyviz heat map tells the story I’m trying to explain with the data.

No other defenseman on the roster features such a significant shot volume from this side of the ice as Kesselring does. This once again works against the style the Sabres want to play to make them a lethal offensive team.

You look at the on-ice numbers that Kesselring has this season, you’d have a hard time understanding why he’s not playing more. He’s second among defenseman on the team in expected goal share at 5 on 5 in Hockey Stats model. He has the third-lowest shot quality against and the second-best on-ice shot quality for.

The problems come when you see his 45% on-ice goal differential at 5-on-5, which is second-worst among defensemen on the team. There’s some bad luck built into that, in particular with the on-ice shooting percentage, but what I went through above is what is contributing to the situation he finds himself in now. There are too many mental mistakes.

If the Sabres need to call on him in the playoffs due to injury, I think he could give them quality minutes if he cleans up some things. That may be a way to work his way back into the good graces of the coaching staff and front office. He’s a restricted free agent in the offseason, and as of now, the odds are not good for him to be on the roster next season.

Data via: Hockey Stats, All Three Zones, and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images