I’m not a huge fan of mock drafts. I much prefer putting together my annual draft guide because it lets me dive into the players who realistically could be available when the Sabres are on the clock instead of trying to predict what 32 different front offices are thinking. The NHL Draft is chaotic by nature. One unexpected pick can completely change the board, and every year there are prospects who go much earlier or much later than anyone expects. Trying to nail the exact order is a losing battle.

Still, they’re fun, and with the draft finally here, it’s time to take my best shot. This isn’t necessarily what I would do if I were making the picks. It’s my best guess at what I think each team will do when they’re on the clock on Friday night, based on organizational tendencies, team needs, and everything we’ve heard throughout the draft process. I’m sure I’ll get plenty wrong, but who cares. You’re still going to read my 2027 mock draft next year.

My general thoughts going into the draft is that there are a consensus top 13 that will get picked in some order for the first 13 picks: McKenna/Stenberg/Reid/Bjorck/Lawrence/Smits/Verhoeff/Cullen/Gustafsson/Malhotra/Carels/Rudolph/Beltchetz.

After that I think there are two players who will definitely get picked before the Sabres pick at 20 in Alexander Command and Oscar Hemming. That leaves four wildcards to account for before the Sabres pick at 20.

In my mind the next tier of players that will be picked is some combination of Ryan Lin, JP Hurlbert, Adam Novotny, Nikita Klepov, Ilia Morozov, and Maddox Dagenais with Jack Hextall, Tommy Bleyl, Maksim Sokolovskii and Mathis Preston having outside chances of slipping into that range.

Here’s my best guess for how it will play out.

1.) Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, NCAA

I don’t think Toronto strays from the consensus #1 pick. On one hand, from a lineup situation, McKenna lands in an ideal spot as a secondary transition player and a set-up man for Auston Matthews. On the other hand, the pressure cooker in Toronto is going to eat him alive when he has defensive missteps and his off-puck laziness starts showing up on tape, especially if the Leafs woes continue into this year.

2.) San Jose Sharks: Ivar Stenberg, W, SHL

I don’t know what the Sharks are thinking. I thought for sure this was Chase Reid and then they went and traded for the 9th overall pick. There will still be a very good defensive prospect available at 9, so I’m going to give Celebrini his running mate in Ivar Stenberg. Those two are going to feast together for years to come, and they will compliment each other’s game as well. They go BPA and address their defense later on in the draft or through packing the picks/assets into an NHL player.

3.) Vancouver Canucks: Chase Reid, RHD, OHL

Skrrrtt…WHAT!?!!? THEY AREN’T TAKING MALHOTRA?? I don’t see any reason to take Malhotra besides he’s the coach’s kid. The #1 defenseman by consensus, who is a RHD, is still on the board and you’re going to pass? I doubt it. They have a long rebuild in front of them and they might as well start the process of building the backend. Now with Buium and Reid, the Canucks have a formable 1-2 punch on the back-end for years to come.

4.) Buffalo Sabres: Caleb Malhotra, C/LW, OHL

I have to think the Sabres are going to be between Malhotra, Smits, and Carels given how NHL group-think works. By that I mean we have drafted several smaller forwards in the past and unwritten NHL rules say you can’t have too many <6′ players on your roster. Carels and Smits are great fits for the departed Byram, but it will be difficult to supplant Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson for ice time. So what do we need more: a #4 defenseman on the blue line or a center? I’m guessing the conversation within the Sabres front office is going to say center.

My draft guide for the #4 pick has my thoughts on Malhotra as a player, here I will just say that Malhotra is a gamble. He’s either middling or has red flags across my dataset, and his only positive datapoint is the percentage of his passes that go to dangerous scoring areas. But in transition, generating dangerous shot attempts for himself, and passing volume and efficiency he has a lot to work on. A lot of positive and NHL translatable traits that appear on tape, but has to refine a lot of his game if he’s going to play center in the NHL.

For the Sabres, my pick would be Viggo Bjorck (you already know this from my article after the trade). I’d take Tynan Lawrence if I was told we can’t add another small forward to the roster. For my faux Sabres prospect pool I’m taking Alberts Smits because I’m loaded at forward already.

5.) New York Rangers: Carson Carels, LHD, WHL

This one seems pretty cut-and-dry for the Rangers as they don’t have any real impact defensive prospects and they tend to lean into the physicality when it comes to defensemen.

6.) Calgary Flames: Viggo Bjorck, C, SHL

The Flames have been the most progressive organizations in the draft the last few years and have quite often picked the player that I would’ve picked for them at their draft position. If Viggo Bjorck was 5’11 instead of 5’9 we’d be talking about him challenging McKenna based off of positional value.

7.) Seattle Kraken: Alberts Smits, LHD, Liiga

The Seattle Middle-Sixers have invested already into the forward group, and are in desperate need of some backend talent in their prospect pool. Smits is the most pro-ready of the available defensemen, who was able to change his approach to the game depending on the level he played at this past year. He was a dependable defenseman in Liiga, a wild and talented and aggressive offensive defenseman in his brief stint in the U20 league in Finland, and a composed offensive leaning defenseman internationally.

8.) Winnipeg Jets: Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, NCAA

Winnipeg needs just about everything when it comes to their prospect pool. They have some interesting depth players at both forward and defense, but with question marks surrounding how viable they are to remain a contender and Josh Morrissey’s contract up in two years, they may look to find their PP1 QB of the future this year. Verhoeff goes back out west where he won’t be expected to join the NHL club this year, and if his feet and decision making improve he could hit the once lofty draft expectations he had coming out of the WHL.

9.) San Jose Sharks: Malte Gustafsson, LHD, SHL

They went Stenberg with #2, so they’re going to get one of the last defenseman in the top tiers of this draft to compliment Sam Dickenson. He may never run a power-play, but he does have the potential to be one of better shutdown defensemen in the league with his size, mobility, and defensive awareness.

10.) Nashville Predators: Daxon Rudolph, RHD, WHL

This is a pretty easy pick for Nashville as the right side of their defensive prospect pool is barren, and Rudolph instantly becomes their top prospect there. Daxon Rudolph isn’t ranked this high for me for a couple reasons, but his lack of mobility defensively and his confounding puck decisions at times are the main reasons why. Still, there is a foundation of an offensive-leaning defenseman here who was a plus player in cycle defensive metrics despite not using his size to his advantage as often as I would’ve liked.

11.) St. Louis Blues: Wyatt Cullen, W, USNTDP

I debated long and hard between Cullen and Lawrence for the Blues, ultimately landing on Cullen with the idea that they just traded Kyrou and need a player who has a high-end playmaker as a ceiling in their prospect pool. There are things about Wyatt Cullen I really like, but he does need to get a little bit faster and play through teammates a bit more if he’s going to succeed without increasing his pace. With the Blues sitting on the backend of the top 13 players, I could see them either trading up from 11 to get a defenseman who projects to the power play.

12.) New Jersey Devils: Ethan Belchetz, W, OHL

I think the Devils will look to diversify the prospect pool and bring a power-forward with scoring ability into the mix. I question a lot about Beltchetz, and didn’t find him neither physical enough nor impactful enough this past year in Windsor, but the size and puck-skill combination don’t come along often in NHL drafts and I doubt he slides any farther down the board.

13.) New York Islanders: Tynan Lawrence, C, NCAA

The steal of the draft! Tynan Lawrence should start being considered as high as third overall, and to fall all the way to 13 is criminal. He is going to be a fantastic two-way centerman who has offensive potential that just didn’t get realized until the last few games in the NCAA. He was a monster in the USHL offensively and the fact that so many people have written him off when he was on pace for like 40 goals and 90 points in the USHL before making the jump is bonkers.

14.) Columbus Blue Jackets: Oscar Hemming, W, NCAA

The Blue Jackets could go Command/Hemming here, but I lean towards Hemming as they look to add one of the better power forwards in this class who combines great skating, skill, and size. Depending on the Blue Jackets feelings towards Del Bell Belluz and his progression into the NHL lineup this could easily be Command, but the Blue Jackets have a need to bring size and scoring into the lineup and Hemming projects cleanly to a scoring role on the third line with upside.

15.) St. Louis Blues: Alexander Command, C, U20 Nationell

As we enter the four swing picks for the Sabres, if I were picking for the Blues I’d be leaning towards Ryan Lin after taking Wyatt Cullen at 11th. However, Lin’s lack of size and questions surrounding his defensive game might sway the Blues to just wait at the position and instead take a high-value position at center and Alexander Command. Command is a high-compete, high-motor, centerman whose offensive game took big leaps over the course of the year both within the U20 and internationally.

16.) St. Louis Blues: Elton Hermansson, RW, Allsvenskan

Hermansson as the third player off a draft board makes a lot of sense. One of the most skilled players in this draft with an offensive ceiling that is bananas, who also has a long ways to go in terms of compete level and thinking the game in an effective manner. A true boom/bust pick. The Blues swing big here.

17.) Los Angeles Kings: Ryan Lin, RHD, WHL

The Kings are desperate to add some dynamic skill to their defensive blue line, and Ryan Lin falls right into their lap. He’s one of the smartest puck-movers from the backend in the draft who is able to see through layers and both carry and pass the puck through the neutral zone. He’s hyper-aggressive in the offensive zone and will look to activate into scoring areas to support the cycle game as well as join rushes as both a primary and secondary attacker. The defensive game is questionable, but it’s NHL passable.

18.) Washington Capitals: Adam Novotny, W, OHL

Tommy Bleyl makes a lot of sense here, but they’re going to have to prove they’re as progressive as I think they are before I give them a defenseman in the archetype of Cole Hutson when he’s already there. They swing big at forward on Novotny as they look to continue to build around the newly acquired nucleus of Tuch/Kyrou. Novotny’s flaws can be hidden by both of those players while also being a great sidekick to both of them offensively.

19.) Utah Mammoth: Oliver Suvanto, C, Liiga

I mean I just CTL+F players that are 6’4 and bigger for Utah and then give them the highest ranked player I have left on my board every year. It works out better than you think when predicting them for mock drafts.

20.) Buffalo Sabres: Tommy Bleyl, RHD, QMJHL

I think the Sabres will say “we’re good” at forward after taking Malhotra and want to address the blueline. I don’t think Villeneuve is going to be a player they’re super excited about but I would be pounding the table for him here. Bleyl is the compromise. A great offensive weapon, some defensive concerns, bigger than Villeneuve, and going to Michigan State in 27-28. There isn’t a defensive-defenseman in this range I think they look at (please don’t pick Maksim Sokolovskii) so we lean into the offensive ones. Morozov makes a lot of sense if they want to go forward here. I’m taking Villeneuve if he’s available, Preston if he is not.

21.) Philadelphia Flyers: Jack Hextall, C, USHL

Gritty, two-way centerman who has some offensive potential. Just screams the type of player Briere typically takes.

22.) Pittsburgh Penguins: Ilia Morozov, C, NCAA

Not as Dubas-coded as normal, but a bet that the great defensive work he showed in the NCAA continues to develop and he takes a step in the right direction offensively to one day become a middle-six center.

23.) Boston Bruins: Casey Mutryn, C/W, USNTDP

A big boy who skates well and hits anything that moves. Just a typical Boston pick and a player we’re all going to hate to play against.

24.) Vancouver Canucks: Mathis Preston, RW, WHL

Swing for the fences, Vancouver! One of the most exciting players ranked by consensus outside the lottery who has legit top-six potential. He could be on this roster sooner rather than later.

25.) Ottawa Senators: Maksim Sokolovskii, LHD, OHL

He’s 6’8, moves decently well for his size, and hits like a wrecking ball. He has no puck skill, struggles in transition, and I doubt he ever puts up points in the NHL. However, he is going to have some monster hits as he goes through the system.

26.) New York Rangers: Gleb Pugachyov, RW, MHL

The offensive upside is somewhat limited, but he is a good middle-six winger who plays with a high-compete level, is very physical, and has a scoring touch as well. He’s a pretty safe projection to the NHL, but not sure about the upside.

27.) San Jose: Maddox Dagenais, F, QMJHL

They are going to look to diversify their prospect pool at some point, so they go get their power-forward with size later in the first round. Dagenais showed a great ability to be functional in transition, has puck skill for his size, and uses his body well to protect pucks and gain net-front positioning to get his goals.

28.) Montreal Canadians: Nikita Klepov, RW, OHL

Has all of the tools to be a top-six player but his skating holds him back from projecting him cleanly to that role. Take a bet on the skill and hope the skating gets NHL passable and they just added even more skill to the roster.

29.) St. Louis Blues: William Hakansson, RHD, SHL

The Blues took three forwards to start so they’ve got to take a defensemen at some point. Hakansson is as dependable a defensive prospect as they come at this point in the draft. Not much to write home about offensively, but he should see NHL games and could be a good sidekick in the top four to a more offensive leaning defensive partner.

30.) Calgary Flames: JP Hurlbert, RW, WHL

They are just swinging for the fences with every pick. They just traded for Nemec after already having Parekh…I think they don’t swing on Villeneuve because someone on their backend has to actually play defense. Hurlbert is all offense, all the time. If his skating improves just a little bit he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with.

31.) Carolina Hurricanes: Xavier Villeneuve, LHD, QMJHL

Never has there been a more Carolina pick than this. If there is a 10% chance a player could be an NHL star, Carolina is going to draft them. Concerns be damned. This is a dream scenario for the Hurricanes.

32.) Ottawa Senators: Brooks Rogowski, C, OHL

I am not picking Rogowski just because he’s 6’6 and it’s the Senators turn to pick. I actually like Rogowski. I think he has functional skill for a player his size, is a good playmaker, and gets inside with the puck on his stick to get his shot off. Has some skating development that needs to happen to create offense at the NHL level, but this is a good swing for Ottawa to make after taking their typical giant goon at 25.