The Buffalo Sabres have been an inconsistent team over the first 11 games of the season. We’ve seen them play arguably one or two complete games so far. Goaltending has been a topic, but that’s not what we’re focusing on here.

Instead, I want to take a look at some early-season shooting and scoring data for this team. They’re finishing at a worse rate than they were last year, but it’s not terrible. They’ve dropped from top-five to league average at 5-on-5.

Missing the Net

What sent me digging into the data was a comment from Lindy Ruff in his post-game media availability after last week’s loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. He said he thought the Sabres were the worst, or second-worst, in the league at missing the net.

That sounded right to me based on what I’ve watched. The next day, I looked at the numbers to see how bad it was. Turns out it wasn’t. They aren’t the worst team in the league at missing the net at 5-on-5 or in all situations. The data below shows they rank 23rd in the league for how often they miss the net on unblocked shot attempts.

Their standing compared to the rest of the league isn’t good. They look a little better when you break it down by the hour.

Over the last three years, these missed-net percentages have been consistent. They’ve hovered between 34% and 35% since 2024.

It starts to look like a significant issue for the Sabres when I look at the high-danger missed-net percentage from Natural Stat Trick. I’m not a big fan of high-danger chances. It’s based entirely on shot location and ignores everything else. However, in this case, it holds water for me because these shots come from high-quality areas on the ice.

They rank 28th in the league in all shot attempts from high-danger areas that don’t hit the net. Missing the net on 42.5% of those attempts is a problem. This could be what Ruff was referencing.

This has been an area the Sabres have struggled with the last three years. They ranked 23rd in the league last season, but it has gotten worse through these 11 games.

At the player level, it’s hard to pinpoint which player or players are driving this issue.

The chart above shows Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs, Jiri Kulich, and Josh Norris as the players who miss the net often. Tage Thompson is missing the net at his individual rate over the last three years. Jack Quinn has also improved there.

We’d probably find that more of these players grade out poorly against the rest of the league.

Losing the Bread and Butter of Scoring

As I mentioned, the scoring is down compared to previous years. At 5-on-5, they average 2.51 goals per hour. Last season, they ranked fourth in the league at 2.95 goals per hour. Shot quality is down year over year in the Hockey Stats model, but they rank the same as last year (14th) in the league.

It doesn’t feel as dangerous an offense, even if the numbers say it is. Hockey Stats added some more in-depth data points this year, such as the types of goals a team scores. This is where the red flags in their offense started to show up.

We know that the Sabres bread and butter of scoring has been in transition, leading to rush opportunities. Over the previous two seasons, they ranked first and second in the league, respectively, in 5-on-5 rush goals per hour. That has dropped off sharply this year. They rank 16th in the league thus far.

Those weren’t even the significant drop-off numbers. The Sabres ranked second in the league in carry-in goals scored per hour at 5-on-5 in each of the last two years. They have since dropped to last in the league this season in that category.

The good news is they have improved to second in the league in dump-in goals per hour. That suggests the forecheck is working, and they’re getting their cycle going to create chances. You can even argue that being that good at generating scoring off of the forecheck is more sustainable in the playoffs.

While they need more balance, it can’t be this drastic. They have a system that shows it can attack the game on the rush and pressure the opponent.

I do want to mention that one data point is missing and isn’t publicly available right now. I can’t validate whether the shooting percentage is down on rush attempts, resulting in a lower scoring rate, or if the volume is down. Based on the eye test, I’m confident it’s a volume reduction.

I don’t think this is because we lost Alex Tuch or Bo Byram. Quinn and Zellweger have stepped in as solid rushers. They may be shifting focus in how they want to generate offense. Ruff would be the one to answer that.

The factor here could be how poorly they’ve been exiting the zone for long stretches. I’m not even calling out the defensemen here. I believe the forwards have been a bigger issue. Turning the puck over, either failing to exit the zone or making bad passes in transition, is limiting opportunities.

They need to get back to what made them a successful team.

Data via: Hockey Stats and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images