Is it even worth putting a lead here? We’re 24 days into the regular season and we collectively have pretty much talked about the goalies, the special teams, and the forwards daily ad nauseum. Wrote about the goalie first, now it’s the forwards’ turn. We’ll give the special teams until the end of the west coast trip before their turn.

The team is averaging 2.8 goals per game in their first 10 games, down from the 3.45 they averaged last season, and it’s the distribution of the goals that may be the most concerning part of that drop off:

	Forwards	Defensemen
2025-26 Regular Season (283 goals in 82 games played)	228 (80.57%)	55 (19.43%)
2025-26 Playoffs (43 goals in 13 games)	31 (72.09%)	12 (27.91%)
2026-27 Regular Season (28 goals through 10 games)	19 (67.86%)	9 (32.14%)

And we’ve seen it play out too the last two weeks. In the first of the two Montreal games and the Toronto game, the team got a combined 5 goals from defensemen. Defensemen have scored in 6 of the 10 games to the tune of a 4-1-2 record. In games with no goals from a defenseman, they are 0-3-1. Especially when you consider that 10 of the 19 goals from forwards have come from Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn, that is not going to be a sustained recipe for success, even for a team with a defense as active as Buffalo’s (1 out of every 5 goals being from the defense last year worked just fine).

With the lone departure from last year’s forward group being Alex Tuch, that replacement via “the young guys stepping up” has become the narrative of the strategy going forward, but what does (or, what should) that mean?

What’s the Line? And the Spine?

If the foundation falters, it’s all going to crumble, and that’s why we’re not going to start with looking at the kids here. Outside of Jason Zucker, Sam Carrick, and Justin Danforth, the rest of the group remains under 30, with Tage Thompson turning 29 next week. The 26-29 range is the consensus range for a forward’s offensive prime, so the body of work from last season being similar this season shouldn’t be unexpected.

Without his most common linemate for most of his career, Tage Thompson has seen similar production to start the year. His 5-on-5 numbers match the teams’ goals per game in all situations (At 5-on-5, the team is at 2.38 GF/60 on 2.7 xGF/60, for reference. The xGF/60 ranks 11th in the NHL through October 23).

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 10	xGF/60 26/27 First 10
Tage Thompson	3.02	2.8	3.29	3.11	2.8	2.8

But after that, the center spine Kevyn Adams envisioned back in the spring of 2025‘s two 27 year olds are not starting very strong compared to where they left off.

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 10	xGF/60 26/27 First 10
Josh Norris	3.88	2.95	2.77	3.33	2.8	2.58
Ryan McLeod	3.67	3.12	2.02	2.94	1.65	2.56

Neither of them are shooting much either to create individual offense, with McLeod only having registered 8 shots on goal and Norris 12, and their 1 and 2 goals respectively are right in line with their individual expected goal values through 10 games. Norris in particular has shot less frequently at 5-on-5 than he did in each of his seasons in Ottawa after first full year in 2020-21.

If this continues on the road trip, it’s probably the most concerning piece of the roster build going forward. Having only one of your three centers producing at the rate they did last year (and neither of those two being common linemates with Alex Tuch in either of the last two seasons) hurts the outlook of the team before wondering what young wingers are going to step up. McLeod’s playoff struggles had a good sample under the hood. Both that and the assist rate (he finished with 40 last season) are missing to start this season.

One Up One Down

The other team leader in goals scored is off to a fantastic age 25 season. Of course the question will remain if that is going to be sustainable or not. And so far? Well, not too shabby under the hood. We’ll get to potentially why soon.

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 10	xGF/60 26/27 First 10
Jack Quinn	3.17	2.92	2.7	3.37	2.54	3.21

After 25 goals and 27 assists last season, things are not going well so far for 24 year old Josh Doan. After averaging slightly over 2 shots on goal per game last season, Doan is at 15 SOG in the first 10 games, which could be a sign that the lower-body injury Lindy Ruff mentioned he suffered a couple weeks ago has lingered. That makes it tough to hold too much against him, but as the first in line to take that first line right wing spot, the drop-off (especially compared to the playoffs) is noticeable on-ice and in the numbers:

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 10	xGF/60 26/27 First 10
Josh Doan	3.17	3.12	3.65	3.14	2.59	2.7

Doan did also start slow last season. In the team’s 0-3 start and 5 game losing streak in mid-November, Doan was limited to a single assist and that came in the final game of that second skid.

All in all, the step forward for the kids is going to be important for the Sabres forward group to replace Alex Tuch’s contributions, but no team can afford those in more favorable spots on the age curve having down seasons to get back to the playoffs. And so far, only two of their top 4 scorers from last season are picking up where they left off (Jason Zucker was 5th on the team in points).

U22

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 10	xGF/60 26/27 First 10
Zach Benson	3.38	2.93	3.45	3.17	3.06	3.47
Noah Ostlund (3 Playoff Games)	2.9	2.58	5.03	2.75	3	3.05
Konsta Helenius (9 Regular Season Games, 4 Playoffs)	2.99	3.56	2.96	4.01	2.37	2.24

Even without the goals finding the back of the net, Zach Benson is off to a fantastic start driving play and setting up his teammates to the tune of 6 assists in the first 10 games. He and Noah Ostlund appear to be on their way to being staples on Buffalo’s best line night in and night out, and it seems to be paying off nicely for Jack Quinn too. So as far as those two are concerned, they have definitely held up their part of the bargain and the goals should follow.

It hasn’t been as smooth of a start for Konsta Helenius compared to his regular season and playoff cameos last year. As the newest member of the forward group, the 20 year old will have a lot of attention on him to become an productive NHL regular going forward, but as mentioned earlier, there are other places to look first for wondering what is happening with the Sabres offense to start the season. Adding defense into the conversation, both he and Jiri Kulich are experiencing a little bit of bad luck so far. Might it be beneficial to each of them to have a week or two in Rochester? Maybe, but the forward ranks of the organization being more heavily weighted to the bottom six doesn’t really bode well with the corresponding rough Goals Against results they’re getting if offense would also be diminishing to accomplish that.

	GF/60	GA/60	GF%	xGF/60	xGA/60	xGF%
Konsta Helenius	2.89	5.18	35.8%	2.24	2.44	47.8%
Jiri Kulich	4.33	3.7	53.9%	3.44	2.28	60.2%

So in general, it’s fine for the first 10 games to have cause for concern to monitor going forward, but there are signs to keep monitoring as opposed to going fully into panic mode yet. The west coast trip is definitely a chance for some get right signs. But as mentioned off the top, a team that rode its depth last season needs to get it everywhere.

And since it’s a game night,

While we’re here, might as well.

	GF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	xGF/60 25/26 Reg Szn	GF/60 25/26 Playoffs	xGF/60 25/26 Playoffs	GF/60 26/27 First 9	xGF/60 26/27 First 9
Alex Tuch	3.69	2.9	2.39	3.23	3.72	3.83

(Photo Credit: Buffalo Sabres)