Now that the offseason has reached a painfully slow point, this seems like a good time to re-assess the Buffalo Sabres’ salary cap situation, both for the 2020-21 season, and moving forward. Despite making some significant changes (both in terms of acquisitions and incumbent expiries), the Sabres have improved their financial situation from the 2019-20 campaign. They’ve also made several positive renovations to the overall roster.

Several of the Sabres’ re-signings and newly acquired free-agent pieces were locked-down for one-year agreements. For that reason, Buffalo will be in a similar situation next summer with a lot of assets set to expire, and subsequently, a lot of potential cap space to work with (an anticipated $36,700,000 per CapFriendly).

Let’s start by taking a look at where the financials stand as of today. Then, we’ll examine which player performances will have the most significant impact in prognosticating the team’s cap situation heading into 2021-22 (i.e. individual production, line combinations, etc.).

As It Stands

At the moment, the Sabres currently have just under $3.5 million in salary-cap space heading into next season (according to CapFriendly). Obviously, that’s not a ton of space, but it’s quite a bit more than the fist full of pocket change Jason Botterill left himself to work with at the beginning of the 2019-20 season.

This could change if Kevyn Adams decides to make another addition to the roster before the 2020-21 campaign commences, but for argument sake, let’s assume that he’s done. We should also factor in Casey Mittelstadt’s potential contract since he has not signed his qualifying offer at this point. We’ll project that deal around $1 million AAV, which would leave Adams with a $2.5 million cushion.

If that is indeed accurate, the Sabres likely won’t have to worry about potential cap overages if they wish to make a trade deadline addition. They certainly wouldn’t be able to take on a massive cap hit (and any deal for something significant would require some salary going back the other way), but all things considered, they’re in a good spot financially for the next year.

The “wild cards” for 2021-22 are certainly the most interesting part of all this (which we’ll get to momentarily), but where the Sabres stand as of right now is noteworthy. For months, there was speculation that the front office wouldn’t spend anywhere near the salary cap, and that turned out to be false. Though they didn’t max themselves out, they were far from stingy.

The 2021 Offseason

I’ll preface by saying that this exercise places the cart way ahead of the horse. There are so many factors that could alter the landscape of what the team’s financial (and personnel) situation looks like a year from now.

Still, of the assets the Sabres currently have in hand, there are a lot of existing players whose respective performances could single-handedly alter Adams’ approach. That comes with the territory when you make a handful of short-term commitments. Let’s examine which players carry the most significant individual impact in terms of how they could affect the team’s options in 2021.

Taylor Hall

When a marquee player signs a one-year contract on the unrestricted market, they have a built-in ambition to perform at a high rate. After what was a down year for Hall (relatively speaking) in 2019-20, the 29-year-old forward shocked the world when he agreed to an $8 million deal with the Sabres.

Since the announcement of his arrival, it has been widely speculated that Hall would spend the 2020-21 campaign riding shotgun with Jack Eichel on the top line. If that’s the case, he’ll almost certainly experience an increase in his base statistical output. Should that uptick occur, he will probably look for a much more lucrative, longer-term contract next summer.

It’s hard to get a gauge on whether the Sabres are using Hall to try and make a one-year playoff push (in part to regain some semblance fan engagement), or if they would truly be interested in an extension, should he and Eichel experience success together. In the case of the latter, he would obviously affect how the Sabres allocate the remainder of their 2021 cap space.

Sam Reinhart

To the chagrin of many, the Sabres once again elected to extend Sam Reinhart to a short-term contract (one-year, $5.2 million) in lieu of a long-term extension. Fortunately, at 25 years old, he’ll still be an RFA when this agreement expires next offseason.

Reinhart’s situation is perhaps the most interesting. If the Sabres finally detach him from Eichel’s hip, the world will finally get an extended look at how capable he truly is of driving his own line. If his production remains consistent sans Eichel, it will result in a price increase to retain his services.

Of course, Ralph Krueger could inexplicably frontload his top line yet again, in which case Reinhart will likely benefit from playing alongside not one, but two elite scorers in Hall and Eichel. Either way, barring a significant decrease in base production, Reinhart will command a raise, and his long-term status remains uncertain with the Sabres, who are seemingly reluctant to commit to him.

Rasmus Dahlin

Make no mistake – Rasmus Dahlin will be an elite defenseman in the NHL. The only question is, when will he make the leap from great, to extraordinary? 2020-21 could be that year, especially if Krueger allows the 20-year-old to do more of what he does best (i.e. carry the puck, and contribute on the offensive rush).

Last season, Dahlin was pacing out for a 56-point year over 82 games. That’s a 14-percent increase from his rookie production (44 points in 80 contests). If we assume he once again experiences a scoring rate increase of 14-percent, that puts him in line for a 64-point clip.

This is obviously very presumptuous, but if he lands somewhere near a 60-point pace while continuing to exhibit improvements in the defensive zone, his next contract could resemble something similar (and probably a little more expensive) to the deal Thomas Chabot signed with the Ottawa Senators in 2019 (eight years, $8 million AAV). In his contract year, Chabot produced 55 points in 70 games with the Senators.

Henri Jokiharju

As a future piece of the Sabres’ defensive top-four, Henri Jokiharju’s next contract will be interesting. After a fantastic start in 2019-20, his performance tapered-off when Marco Scandella (his primary defensive partner) was dealt via trade. How well he bounces back from a relatively rough finish will dictate whether or not the Sabres consider a long-term extension.

As a defender who isn’t a risk to produce gaudy offensive numbers, Buffalo wouldn’t necessarily be taking a huge risk by signing him to a bridge deal next summer. Still, if the improvement is there, and the front office feels that the best is still to come, they could capitalize and lock him down on a longer-term contract.

Of all the players listed above him, he is the most likely candidate for a “bridge deal”, barring some massive growth next season.

Possible Exits

Now that we’ve taken a brief look at the players who could have the biggest effect on next season’s plans, who are the surest bets to leave? At age 36, Eric Staal sticks out as someone unlikely to return. Barring a very surprising bounce-back year in net, Carter Hutton is a near certainty to hit free agency in 2021 as well.

The same could be said for players like Jake McCabe and Brandon Montour, but their situations aren’t as clear-cut. McCabe is a strong defensive defenseman in his own right and does have some value at the right cost. Montour, despite all of his flaws, seems to be a favorite of Krueger’s.

Regardless of the Sabres’ plans here, none of these pieces carries a significant financial impact. At least not enough to throw a wrench in the overall 2021 offseason approach.

Conclusion

If we assume all of the above-referenced players hit the open market, it would leave Buffalo with the aforementioned $36.7 million in cap space. Is that enough to extend Hall, Reinhart, Dahlin and Jokiharju?

What does the worst (or perhaps most expensive) case scenario look like? If we assume excellent seasons for all of the team’s key pending free agents, it could look something like this:

• Hall – Five-years, $10 million AAV
• Reinhart – Six-years, $7.5 million AAV
• Dahlin – Eight Years, $9 million AAV
• Jokiharju – Four Years, $4 million AAV

That would account for roughly $30.5 million of the Sabres’ cap space, and they’d still need to find replacements for McCabe, Montour, and Hutton (perhaps from within). These figures are somewhat arbitrary, but even in the worst-case scenario, the situation wouldn’t be insurmountable.

To attain even more space, Adams could use his buyout option for the last two years of Kyle Okposo’s contract (and probably should regardless). He could also trade someone like Rasmus Ristolainen, but as he showed this offseason, there appears to be a push from within the organization to keep him around.

On top of the Okposo buyout, Adams would need to hope that players like Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, and Arttu Ruotsalainen are ready to assume full-time NHL roles in 2021-22. The continued development of the Sabres’ young assets shouldn’t get lost in all of this either, they are key pieces in the team’s ability to retain all of their top players next offseason, including Hall. Inexpensive contributors must be present in order to afford so many expensive pieces at the top of the lineup.

Again, this is all very premature. There are so many extenuating circumstances that could take place and change the tides. Still, Adams’ strategy of negotiating short-term commitments was largely an intelligent move. Not only are the Sabres immediately more competitive (and less expensive) than they were a year ago, but he also has enough financial flexibility to navigate through a multitude of different scenarios for the 2020-21 trade deadline, and the 2021 offseason.

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