It appears as though the Buffalo Sabres will return basically the same group on the blue line next season. The only new addition will be Matt Irwin as the likely extra defenseman. It’s surprising that Kevyn Adams and Ralph Krueger decided to return the same squad.

While the team itself finished top 10 in shot suppression at 5 on 5 last year, there were still some shortcomings with that group. With us now being only a month from the NHL projected start date of January 1st, it’s time to start attempting to project pairs.

Finding the Minutes for Dahlin

In my opinion, the most important thing the Sabres need to figure out is how they’re going to get Rasmus Dahlin top pair minutes. I recently wrote about why it’s time to elevate the former first overall pick to that status on the club.

The question that remains is who is going to play on that top pair with him? One option could be Henri Jokiharju, but Krueger may not want to put arguably his top two defenders on one pair. Colin Miller is another player to consider, but can he handle that deployment over an extended period of time?

The last option they can consider is likely the most probable outcome. That partner is Rasmus Ristolainen.

Let’s be real here. Until we see otherwise Ristolainen is going to play 20 minutes a night. Every Sabres coach has fallen into the trap and Krueger is a fan of his. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be played as a top-pair defender again.

While this isn’t my favorite idea, the path to get Dahlin the top pair minutes he needs likely means partnering him with Ristolainen. Putting this pair together would allow the rest of the defense to fall into the roles they’re fit to play.

Jokiharju and Jake McCabe can pick up on their success together last season on the second pair. Then Miller and Montour can be the sheltered third pair. We also avoid the dreaded Montour and Ristolainen pairing in this scenario.

Dahlin and Ristolainen History

The hope in putting Dahlin with Ristolainen is that he can cover up for some of the shortcomings in Ristolainen’s game. He can handle the exit responsibility which is an area we all know that Ristolainen struggles. On the flip side, Ristolainen can help on the walls and controlling the front of the net.

This duo does have a history together over the last two years. They’ve played a total of 311 minutes together as a pair at 5 on 5. Most of that occurred during the 2018-19 season under Phil Housely. Krueger only put this duo on the ice together for 91 minutes last season.

The on-ice results are not that bad from a high level. In a small sample, they produced positive impacts offensively and defensively last season as pair in Micah McCurdy’s environment distiller tool as you’ll see below.

Even in the bigger sample of the 2018-19 season, we see similar results.

Unfortunately, there’s a caveat to these results. Of the 311 minutes together, 48.8% (152 minutes) came when the Sabres were trailing in the game. What that means is that these offensive and defensive numbers could be inflated by the game state. We know that teams go into a defensive shell and as a result, it impacts their offense. The trailing team also pushes offensively more than they would in other game states.

The graphic below from Micah’s write up on his new impact model gives you an idea of how teams perform based on game score according to his analysis.

So, let’s break it down by game score to see how the results fair for Ristolainen and Dahlin as a pair. It’ll give us a better idea of their performance:

Trailing – 152 minutes (48.8%)

• Shot Share (CF%) – 55.24%
• Shot Quality (xGF%) – 53.75%
• Goal Differential (GF%) – 42.86%

Leading – 75 minutes (24.1%)

• Shot Share (CF%) – 43.71%
• Shot Quality (xGF%) – 47.98%
• Goal Differential (GF%) – 80.00%

Tied – 82 minutes (26.3%)

• Shot Share (CF%) – 41.61%
• Shot Quality (xGF%) – 51.87%
• Goal Differential (GF%) – 42.86%

According to this data from Natural Stat Trick, we can see that when you get away from the situations when they were on the ice and the Sabres were trailing, the results get worse.

I’m curious how Krueger would feel about the idea of this pairing. Last season he used them primarily as a pair to play when his club was trailing. In the 91 minutes together last season, 61 minutes came when the Sabres were down. It’s possible he doesn’t see them as a pairing that can handle tough defensive situations and the data indicates he may not be wrong.

However, as I mentioned, he may not have a choice if he’s unwilling to take Ristolainen off the top pair and wants to give Dahlin those minutes as well.

It’s possible, as well, that Krueger could feel Dahlin isn’t ready for that responsibility. That’s not something I’m ready to think about at this point because of how big of a blunder it could turn out to be.

If he doesn’t feel they’re able to handle tougher defensive deployment it may help putting them with a strong transition line headlined by Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall. It would help get the puck out of the defensive end quicker.

A pairing of Dahlin and Ristolainen isn’t the best outcome by any means, but it may be the only option if we want to see Dahlin get the ice time he needs.

Data via: Hockeyviz.com and Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images