When the Buffalo Sabres drafted Rasmus Dahlin first overall in 2018, they were getting one of the best defense prospects in recent history. The “Connor McDavid of defensemen” was what one prominent draft analysis described him as.

Outside of a 24-game stretch, the Swedish defender has been impressive as a teenager in the NHL. He had one of the most productive seasons of an 18-year-old defenseman in league history as a rookie scoring 44 points in 82 games. He backed that up in his second year scoring at a 56 points per 82 games pace. Impressive numbers for a teenager playing in the NHL at one of the most difficult positions to transition to at the highest level.

Although he has been productive, the Sabres haven’t fully unleashed Dahlin on the league. They’ve brought him along slowly with sheltered minutes and time on the top power play unit. There’s nothing wrong with the approach and was likely the correct development path for him coming out of the SHL. However, in year three, it’s time for the Sabres to throw Dahlin in the deep end to see if he sinks or swims.

Rough Stretch and a Strong Rebound

Ralph Krueger took a different approach with Dahlin last season as the new head coach. He tasked him with improving his game defensively. Dahlin struggled with it early on last season overthinking the game in situations and resulting in a lot of turnovers.

He never looked comfortable and with Krueger’s system of having defenders play a restricted role in transition, he couldn’t get any aspect of his game going. There were times he played the least amount of any defensemen on the ice and even was benched in certain situations.

Dahlin looked like he was regressing and not even close to ready to handle top pair minutes. You never want to wish injury on anyone, but he suffered a concussion at the end of November. He ended up missing a few weeks, but it may have saved his season. Dahlin was able to reset and watch the game while recovering.

Once he returned from the concussion he went back to being the player we saw in his rookie season. He cut down on the turnovers and started to get involved more on the offense. The on-ice underlying data shows his drastic improvement when you compare his pre-concussion games to how he played after the injury.

His overall shot quality share (xGF%) at 5 on 5 jumped from 39.6% to 50.7%, according to Evolving Hockey. You saw a similar improvement in his shot share as well.

The interesting part is that Dahlin was starting to pick up more minutes when the season was paused and was thriving. In his first 24 games, his 5 on 5 time on ice per game was 14:58 and in the last 35, it was 15:38. March was actually his highest month in TOI per games played at 5 on 5, according to the twins’ site.

Top Pair Minutes

It’s unfortunate that the season didn’t continue in the final month. It’s possible Krueger would have continued to feed him minutes and we could have got a small sample look at Dahlin in top pair minutes.

In year three it’s time to take the training wheels off and see what you have in him. He’s due for a new contract after the 2020-21 season and the Sabres should want to know if he’s capable of playing big minutes consistently. He doesn’t need to play at a Norris level, but he shouldn’t get steamrolled in more difficult minutes.

They should remove all obstacles that stand in the way of finding out what they have in their 20-year-old defender. That’s where Rasmus Ristolainen being on the roster is problematic. He has played the most minutes on the blue line for the club for years and has been crushed at 5 on 5. It’s time for the organization to see if someone else can do it.

The problem is that Ralph Krueger is a fan of Ristolainen and played him as his top pair blueliner last season. Why would this year be any different? I’ll believe that the Finnish defender won’t be utilized as a top pair defender on this team when I see it.

This team can’t continue to allow Ristolainen to drag them down at 5 on 5. There is likely going to be a considerable improvement going from Ristolainen to Dahlin in those minutes. The two played different minutes last season, but when you look at their impacts playing at 5 on 5 with Eichel you see a drastic difference in team performance.

You can see in Micah McCurdy’s impact chart above that the Sabres offense is way more effective when Dahlin and Eichel are on the ice without Ristolainen.

As I said, overall Dahlin and Ristolainen played different minutes. In this situation, however, with Eichel, it’s a similar type of minutes. The quality of teammate is the same and situationally there isn’t a big difference. In Dahlin’s 250 minutes with Eichel, 77% of those were when the Sabres were leading or trailing. Of Ristolainen’s 405 minutes, 70% were when the Sabres were leading or trailing. Yes, Dahlin would have the more favorable offensive minutes, but not enough to account for the drastic difference you see above.

The unfortunate solution to this situation, if Ristolainen is going to stay, is to put them on the top pair together. I hate the idea, but Dahlin needs to get the minutes. If it’s with Ristolainen then so be it. Over the last two years, they’ve played 311 minutes together at 5 on 5. The numbers on-ice numbers are not that bad on the surface with a 48% shot share and 51% shot quality share, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The catch here is that 49% of these minutes were in situations when the Sabres were trailing. Meaning they were playing in more favorable situations offensively. When paired together in situations when leading or tied the shot share drops to 42.7% and shot quality share to 49.8%. This past season, in particular, Krueger used them as the pair to play when trailing. Of the time on ice with Dahlin and Ristolainen as a pair, 67% of them were when the team was trailing in the game this year.

One way or another the Sabres need to figure out how to find out if Dahlin is ready to handle the responsibility and if he’s worthy of a contract that indicates he has reached that level. For me, outside of winning, this is one of the most important things the Sabres need to find out by the conclusion of next season.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Natural Statrick, and Hockeyviz.com

Photo credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images