It really has been a wild week and a half in the NHL. We’ve seen a lot of players move around and a handful of trades. The Buffalo Sabres even pulled off the surprise signing of the offseason in Taylor Hall.

The goaltending market was perhaps the busiest position group in terms of movement since the draft. Corey Crawford, Matt Murray, Devan Dubnyk, Jacob Markstrom, Cam Talbot, Aaron Dell, Braden Holtby, Thomas Griess, and Henrik Lundqvist all found new homes.

Below Average Goaltending

In a saturated goalie the market, the Sabres have decided to stand pat in goal, at least for now. An improvement between the pipes is a need for the club this offseason. For a while now, they’ve received below-average goaltending from their tandem in the crease.

Last year was the second year that Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton played together for the Sabres. Yet again the overall results were below league average in combined performance. It was one of those odd years when you look at the numbers for the goaltenders.

The Sabres as a team finished ranked 11th in the NHL in 5 on 5 save percentage, according to Evolving Hockey. The 5 on 5 save percentage was particularly good for Ullmark, as he finished fifth among all goalies to play at least 1,400 minutes. Jason Botterill loved to bring these numbers up to talk up his goaltenders, but there’s a caveat here that he didn’t discuss. While the save percentage is good, you can get yourself into trouble if you don’t properly account for the shot quality faced. This is particularly important in the Sabres case.

They were a top 10 shot suppression team at 5 on 5 last season. What that means is that Ullmark and Hutton saw a lower quality of shots and shot attempts than the majority of the goaltenders in the NHL. The twins’ site had the Sabres at the 10th-lowest shot quality against at 5 on 5. Ullmark himself had the eighth-lowest shot quality against (xGA) at 5 on 5 and Hutton faced the 10th-lowest.

The point is that save percentage can look inflated when you don’t account for shot quality faced. It’s a dangerous way to evaluate goaltending.

When you account for shot quality, the Sabres tandem dips below average at 5 on 5 and in all situations. Both Hutton and Ullmark posted some of the worst numbers in the league when shorthanded. That drastically impacted their goals saved above expected in all situations. You’ll see below in the chart with data from Evolving Hockey, that among goaltenders to play at least 1,400 minutes, the Sabres were at the bottom in goals saved above expected.

The numbers do look better at 5 on 5, but still, come in slightly below league average.

Hutton struggled in all situations, including 5 on 5. Ullmark, however, still posted respectable goals saved above expected numbers in Evolving Hockey’s model. He ranked 15th (62nd percentile) among all goalies to play at least 1,400 minutes at 5 on 5 in GSAx.

Replacing Hutton

There’s no denying that Ullmark showed year over year improvement. Perhaps not to the level that some believe, but he improved. Hutton is the one that continued to sit at the bottom of the data set among goaltenders and is the one the Sabres need to replace. I’m still not sure the Sabres can rely on Ullmark to be the guy to handle 50 or more games in goal. He’s still likely best suited for a 60/40 or 50/50 type tandem moving forward.

If they would like to upgrade at the position now, there are not too many options remaining. The free-agent market is the bottom of the barrel options like Jimmy Howard and Craig Anderson. Ryan Miller would be a nice story, but that isn’t happening.

The best avenue at this point looks like the trade market. There have been reports from Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News about the Sabres being involved in the goalie trade market and I’ve heard similar information from my sources. Joonas Korpisalo is a player that they continue to remain in contact with the Columbus Blue Jackets about. The issue is the cost may be too great for the Sabres.

I would still encourage the Sabres to explore a trade for Arizona Coyotes goaltender Antti Raanta. It’s hard to believe the Coyotes will go into next season with over $8 million invested in goalies. They also currently sit $3.2 million over the salary cap.

It may be difficult for the Sabres to fit in Raanta’s $4.25 million cap hit, but if they can, his salary for 2020-21 is only $2 million, according to Cap Friendly. He also has only one-year remaining on his deal, which lines up with the Sabres’ desire to target short-term deals to give themselves future flexibility.

If it were up to me, I’d target Raanta over Korpisalo. Raanta has been one of the top goaltenders in the league, when healthy. Korpisalo, on the other hand, reminds me of a little bit of Ullmark. He can hit some good stretches as we saw in the playoffs. Then he’ll throw together a 10-15 game stretch where he struggles.

It could be that he hasn’t found that inconsistency due to his age, but I’d prefer to go with the known commodity at this point. Not to mention, Raanta, will likely be the cheaper acquisition cost for the Sabres.

There is still a lot of runway left in this offseason. Kevyn Adams is likely sitting back at this point and see how the secondary market unfolds. If you were to hold me down, I’d predict that the Sabres will eventually upgrade in goal. They can’t undervalue the importance to upgrade this position.

With the roster as it currently stands, I’d predict that they would take a step backward in their team defense performance. They need two goaltenders that are capable of making up for that difference and more.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Cap Friendly, and Charting Hockey

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images