It’s certainly been an interesting start to free-agency, hasn’t it? In the first 48 hours of the new league year, the Buffalo Sabres started things off with a fizzle (which seems like a very generous description). After deciding not to qualify RFA forward, Dominik Kahun, they continued to infuriate the fan base by signing pending-UFA, Zemgus Girgensons to an absurdly overpriced extension. They then drew even more deserved ire by pursuing a very flawed player in Cody Eakin to presumably take over third-line center duties.

Things looked pretty bleak. That was, until yesterday evening when the Sabres shocked the NHL by announcing that they had agreed to a one-year, $8 million contract with prized free-agent winger, Taylor Hall. The news came as a much-needed tranquilizer to a fan base that started seeing Kevyn Adams’ frequently promoted “analytics approach” come apart at the seams.

While this acquisition certainly doesn’t absolve them of the blatant contract valuation failures that preceded it, it certainly makes things interesting leading into the 2020-21 campaign. Because there were so many teams reportedly involved in pursuing Hall’s services, the front office does deserve a fair amount of credit for landing a “big fish” on what is a very reasonable contract (both in term and expense).

Let’s make one thing very clear – Hall didn’t come here to play with anyone other than Jack Eichel. Though Adams alluded to the possibility of a longer-term agreement coming to fruition down the line, this sure looks like a way for Hall to boost his value for next summer by inflating his numbers next to an elite centerman. What better way to do that than by flanking one of the best in the league in Eichel?

Let’s take a look at Hall’s recent body of work, and try to determine how he’ll impact the blue-and-gold next season. Analytically, 2019-20 was a down year of sorts for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. He got off to a rough start in his third season with the New Jersey Devils, posting a five-on-five xG rate of 48.92-percent through the first 30 games of the season (pacing out for his lowest mark since 2014-15).

An impact recovery did, however, take place once he was dealt to the Arizona Coyotes in December. In 35 contests with the desert dogs, his xG rate recovered to 52.38-percent, which was much closer to what his expected-goal impacts looked like since he left the Edmonton Oilers in 2016. While this boost helped his overall total on the year, it just barely put him above 50-percent, and obviously contributed to a substantial regression in his year-over-year xGAR rate.

Now, this regression could lead some to believe that as he approaches 30 years of age, a regression is taking place (which is likely true to an extent). In order to measure the gravity of that regression, his linemates and their subsequent usage must be properly examined. After all, his xG rate in Arizona trailed only Connor Garland for the best on the team among forwards.

As a winger whose underlying metrics could conceivably be impacted by center quality, that’s the first place we’ll look. Christian Dvorak was his most common (and essentially exclusive) pivot in Arizona. In New Jersey, Nico Hischier was his Hall’s primary centerman (which had been the case for nearly his entire tenure with the Devils).

What’s interesting here is those 30 games with the Devils to start the 2019-20 season. Despite holding an outstanding five-on-five xG rate of 53.81-percent alongside Hischier from 2017-19, that number plummeted down to 45.57-percent in the 208:46 they spent together last season. In their first two seasons as a duo, Hischier’s xG rate experienced a deeply negative effect when he was away from Hall (whose numbers were relatively unaffected either way). In 2019-20, both players were better without the other, which is a bit bizarre.

In Arizona, Hall and Dvorak had an immediate rapport, posting an xG rate of 54.35-percent in 424:30 together. It is worth noting that, analytically, Dvorak is a stronger expected-goal share entity than Hischier. Their line also had Garland (who also posts consistently strong underlying metrics) manning the right side. So, perhaps it’s fair to say that Hall, who was a line-driving presence in his prime, has become a bit more reliant on having stronger linemates in order to make the same xG impacts he produced from 2016-2019.

If that’s the case, it is fortunate that the Sabres are in a position to accommodate this requirement. Despite playing with the likes of Hischier, Dvorak, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the past, Eichel will be the most dynamic centerman Hall has skated with in his 10-year NHL career. Should they spend the entire year together as most expect, his production could reach heights we haven’t seen since he won the Hart Trophy in 2017-18.

It also goes without saying that Hall’s presence on special teams will be a breath of fresh air for a Sabres power-play unit that fizzled after a very hot start last season. 163 of his 563 career points have come on the man-advantage.

At the end of the day, this is a very low-risk, high-reward deal for Buffalo. If Hall’s production explodes on the first line, they could sneak their way into the playoff conversation. If not, he can be leveraged for a future piece from a contending team at the trade deadline.

The only mistake the Sabres could realistically make is extending him to a gaudy contract after he lights the world on fire with Eichel, but that’ a bridge we’ll cross if we get to it. For now, let’s rejoice in the fact that Adams made a move to help salvage what was shaping up to be one of the most disappointing offseasons in recent memory.

xGAR and Linemate Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey

Teammate Data and Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images