It’s only two games, but Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is off to a slow start once again. We saw the 20-year-old defender have a rough 20 or so games to start last season. He struggled with turnovers and looked hesitant in his decision making.

We’re seeing a similar thing take place in the two opening contests against the Washington Capitals. Dahlin needs to get his game back on track because of the shortened season. There isn’t a lot of race track to work out issues and every game is more meaningful this season.

Relying on Instincts

There could be a lot of factors at play here to be causing the slow start. Dahlin hasn’t played a game in over 10 months. With no preseason games and a short training camp, there could be some rust to kick off the year. He’s also not playing with the best defensive partner in Brandon Montour. The system of Ralph Kruger could be another thing holding Dahlin back a little as well.

Last season was split into two parts for the Swedish defender. He suffered a concussion at the end of November and when he returned he was back to the player we saw in his rookie season. The underlying data of on-ice performance show a stark difference between the two parts of his season.

His on-ice shot quality for and against took huge positive leaps. He went from a 39.63% shot quality share at 5 on 5 to 50.76% over the final 35 games of the season.

I wanted to go back and see if I could find something in his game that changed as the season went along. I reviewed Corey Sznajder’s tracking data and found some interesting data in Dahlin’s microstats. We all know that he’s playing at his strengths when he’s carrying the puck and being creative offensively.

In the first 25 games of the season last year, Dahlin was playing outside of his instincts. As a result, he wasn’t as involved at both ends of the ice and we saw that impact on the shot quality for data point during that stretch of the season.

As you can see in the chart above, over the final 35 games Dahlin went back to playing his style. The largest jump was in his offensive zone entry carry-in percentage. His carry-ins per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 doubled from 2.3 to 4.2, according to Corey’s data. As a result, his primary shot contributions per 60 minutes increased from 15.4 to 19.5.

The overall point I’m trying to make here is that Dahlin is playing within his game when he’s getting involved in transition offense. That’s what makes him a dangerous player and one of the strengths of his game. With the puck on his stick and trying to create he’s playing within his instincts. When he gets outside of that he starts to overthink and his decision-making process becomes sloppy.

In the first game of the season, Corey tracked Dahlin back down at a carry-in percentage under 40%. Although Corey didn’t track the second game yet, my eyes told me that once again he wasn’t carrying the puck through the neutral zone.

We know that Krueger’s system last season didn’t have the defensemen to consistently carry the puck through the neutral zone. They relied more on a dump and chase system. Krueger also wanted a focus on the defensive game with their inability to consistently create offense.

This season, with an improved roster, the hope was to see a more open offensive system. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case so far, but it’s still early in the season. They were unable to create a lot of quality offense against the Capitals.

Dahlin needs to get back to playing his game and follow the instincts that have got him to this point. If it’s a system thing that is holding him back, it’s on the coaching staff to let him play his game. Attempting to turn him into a different type of player is going to result in what we’re seeing. Second-guessing decisions, playing slow, and turnovers.

At the same time, Dahlin needs to step up and take control of his game. This is a big season for him. He can’t hide behind all of the excuses if he puts up another long stretch of poor play.

Data via: Corey Sznajder and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images