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Analyzing Ristolainen’s strong start to the season

Rasmus Ristolainen is off to a strong start again this season for the Buffalo Sabres. We saw the same thing occur last year, but the wheels fell off again when the calendar flipped to 2020. Hopefully, this season he can maintain this level of play. If the Finnish defender can play at this level throughout the season on a pairing with Jake McCabe, the Sabres are going to be in good shape.

The reason I wanted to get this out there right now is because of a misconception that is occurring about his early-season performance. We heard Pierre McGuire talk on the NBC broadcast in the first game against the Philadelphia Flyers about how the Sabres want Ristolainen to be more physical. He went on to insinuate that’s why he’s playing well to start the season. A similar sentiment was making the rounds on Twitter the day after the game.

I felt it was an unfair and easy way out to explain his start of the season. Hits have never been an issue with Ristolainen. This is a player that is among the leaders in hits every season. You may often hear me tell you having a lot of hits isn’t always a good thing. It usually signifies you don’t have the puck often when you’re on the ice.

The 26-year-old defender has kept up that physical style he plays, but it’s the other things he’s doing that is allowing him to play so well.

Defending the Blue Line

It’s only four games, but among defensemen to play at least 20 minutes, Ristolainen ranks 16th in the league in shot quality share (66%) at 5 on 5. He also ranks 13th in on-ice shot quality against, according to Evolving Hockey. The team as a whole is doing a great job reducing scoring chances and it’s still very early. However, these numbers are still impressive.

McCabe and Ristolainen have worked as a pair, for the most part. They can get themselves into trouble with poor decision-making at times, but they do a good job suppressing the opponent’s offense.

Krueger is deploying them differently this season. In the first month of the 2019-20 season, that pair was at 15:17 minutes per game played at 5 on 5. This year, they’re down to 13:01, according to Natural Stat Trick. That’s over two minutes less a game.

The Sabres coach is also not doing a lot of line matching in the first few games of the season. You can see above in Micah McCurdy’s time on ice chart that the minutes have been split pretty evenly so far among the six defenders.

Ristolainen himself is also seeing the lowest amount of ice time per game since the 2014-15 season at 16:50 TOI/GP.

The biggest difference you’re seeing in the performance of McCabe and Ristolainen as a pair is their willingness to protect the defensive blue line. They’re stepping up in the neutral zone or attacking the puck carrier early when they enter the zone.

Ristolainen is the one that has seen the biggest improvement among the two. This is where people are mistaking that physicality as the reason he’s playing so well. While he’s stepping up on players; it’s not always with the body. It’s just attacking the puck carrier to stop their momentum to force a dump in or in a lot of cases a turnover.

Let me show you a few video examples. Here’s the step-up in the neutral zone on Jakub Voracek that most people remember.

Here against the Flyers again he steps on the forward in the neutral zone to disrupt the pass and cause the Sabres to regain possession.

Again, a simple, aggressive play on the puck that causes another turnover.

Lastly, he reads the play of the defenseman going to Alex Ovechkin on the wall. He attacks the puck and forces Ovechkin to dump the puck in.

The video is backed up by the numbers. Entry defense has been a poor area of his game in the microstats. You can see that below in CJ Turtoro’s tool of Corey Sznajder’s tracking data.

Over the last three years, Ristolainen was allowing carry-in percentage against of 68%. In the three games tracked this season by Corey, that number is now down to 44%. Defending the blue line and preventing the opponent from entering the zone is a good way to avoid getting yourself into trouble in your own end.

Smart Offensive Plays

We’re seeing some smarter decisions in the offensive zone, as well. Ristolainen has been a drag on offense when he’s on the ice the last few years. He’s known to kill offense by forcing point shots and skating himself into trouble along the walls resulting in turnovers.

This year you’re seeing simpler plays at 5 on 5. I particularly like this video clip below. You’ll see Ristolainen use the body smartly to take a player off the puck. Then he reads open ice and carries the puck through the neutral zone. Continues to follow the puck behind the net and helps retrieve possession back.

In this next video, you’re going to see him make a simple play to get the puck to Taylor Hall. In years past he may just throw this one to the net. Instead, he moves the puck to an open Hall for a better scoring opportunity.

Lastly, another easy play to pinch down the wall, and instead of forcing a play to the net or skating into trouble, he moves the puck to Hall again.

There are still some mistakes that happen from time to time and bad reads in his game. That’s not as big of a deal if it happens intermittently and it’s mixed in with more good plays.

It’s promising how this season has started for Ristolainen. Also, Krueger deserves credit for how he is not only utilizing Ristolainen but all of the defensemen on the roster to this point.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Corey Sznajder, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockeyviz.com
Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images
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One thought on “Analyzing Ristolainen’s strong start to the season

  1. I’ve liked his play at the blue line. The one risk involved with that play style is obviously the potential of giving up a rush if your man beats you. You really need a cohesive system to ensure a high forward is pressuring from behind and support against the rush. The player has to be smart about it too. A missed pinch is what burned them on Konecny’s breakaway goal the other day. I haven’t loved Krueger so far in his tenure but if there’s one thing he’s good at it’s getting guys to buy in, so hopefully this continues.

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