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Sabres’ Offseason Additions Providing Value Early On

Leading up to the 2020-21 NHL season, the Buffalo Sabres’ offseason additions had drawn largely mixed reviews. Obviously, the acquisition of Taylor Hall via free-agency, and Eric Staal via trade with the Minnesota Wild were almost unanimously well-received. Kevyn Adams’ depth forward signings, however, seemed lackluster and even somewhat redundant.

Through four games, nearly all of the Sabres’ newcomers have posted impressive metrics. Hall is currently tied with Jack Eichel for the team lead in points, while players like Tobias Rieder, Cody Eakin, and Riley Sheahan have done excellent work at mitigating chances-against while applying some offensive pressure in the bottom-six.

Let’s take a quick dive into their individual numbers and see how their presence has been felt in the early going.

Taylor Hall

As expected, the 2018 Hart Trophy winner has provided immediate impact on the Sabres’ top forward line. Skating almost exclusively alongside Eichel, both players improved on what were already impressive metrics when Ralph Krueger moved Sam Reinhart onto their right wing instead of Tage Thompson (which occurred during their two-game tile with the Philadelphia Flyers).

In about 35 minutes at even-strength, they’ve been by far the most effective offensive trio on the team, currently carrying a five-on-five xGF rate of 61.50-percent. Individually, Hall currently ranks 20th among NHL forwards with an even-strength on-ice xG rate of 64.73-percent. That mark places him third behind Eichel (16th in the NHL) and Jeff Skinner (11th in the NHL) among Buffalo forwards.

With Reinhart in the fold, the Hall-Eichel line now has a high-end setup man that didn’t exist when Thompson was manning the right side. That should help them register more goals at even-strength, and bring their actual rate closer to their current expected total. As of right now, neither Eichel nor Hall has a five-on-five tally to their name through four contests.

Eric Staal

When it was announced that Adams’ first trade at the Sabres’ GM involved sending Marcus Johansson to Minnesota in exchange for Staal, fans were elated. For the first time since Ryan O’Reilly was traded away, it seemed as though the team had a legitimate option to slot-in at center on the second line.

That assumption may have been premature. While he’s certainly been an upgrade over Johansson (who was a winger forced into a suboptimal position) in the same role, he hasn’t had the start that most were anticipating. Through four games, he currently ranks eighth among Sabres forwards with an even-strength xG rate of 48.65-percent.

The most interesting thing about his early metrics is the way they’re distributed. If someone would have told me a month ago that Staal’s xG rate would look the way it does early on, I’d have assumed that he was producing some offense, while giving up chances defensively. In reality, the opposite is true as he currently ranks fifth among Sabres forwards with an xGA/60 rate of 1.50, and eighth with an xGF/60 rate of 1.42.

At 36 years old, perhaps it’s taking time for him to get going after all his time off. For the first time in his career, he looks like he’s declining. His skating is noticeably slower, and he seems much easier to defend against on the counter-rush. We’ll see if that changes at all as the season marches on.

Riley Sheahan

Sheahan is an interesting case in what is a very small sample to this point. After Zemgus Girgensons went down for the year with a groin injury, signing Sheahan to a one-year deal following his PTO was a wise move, given his defensive skill set.

As of right now, it looks like money well spent. His on-ice metrics have been outstanding so far, but to be fair, a lot of his success is probably a result of playing on a line with Skinner. Despite being snake-bitten with zero goals to date, the $9 million man stands head and shoulder above his Buffalo contemporaries, holding an outstanding xGF/60 rate of 3.11.

Krueger’s decision to place Skinner on a line with Sheahan and Curtis Lazar was met with ire, but that trio has been pretty successful in creating chances offensively. We shouldn’t necessarily conclude that this is solely due to Skinner’s presence, as Sheahan and Lazar have both been a big help in terms of puck possession, and defensive capability.

The fact that this group is carrying a high OZS rate of over 63-percent has probably aided their success as well, but their ability to maintain the zone has been key in their positively tilted xG rate. If they can start turning their expected production into tangible results, the Sabres could have a sneaky-dangerous third line.

The Rieder-Eakin Line

Here is where things get especially surprising (and pleasantly so). We’ll start with Rieder, who I personally felt was a bit of redundancy as an above-average defensive entity who didn’t really provide anything the other way. It’s tough to get mad about a one-year deal worth $700K, but he just seemed like another mediocre veteran roadblock in front of Arttu Ruotsalainen.

Eakin on the other hand was widely regarded as the most confounding of Adams’ year-one additions. While I’ll maintain that the Sabres overpaid for a player of his caliber (both in term and dollars), his underlying metrics are currently better than what he had consistently produced for the first nine years of his NHL career. For someone with historically bad defensive metrics, he’s acquitted himself nicely in a limited, yet heavy defensive zone usage.

As a duo, Rieder and Eakin have done a commendable job of forcing low-event hockey on the team’s de facto fourth-line. As it stands, they rank near the middle of the pack (among their teammates) in terms of both xG-percentage and shot-share.

It’s probably worth noting that these two struggled when Thompson was serving as their right-winger but saw immediate improvement when Dylan Cozens slotted into that role. Four games are far too small of a sample to put even a pinch of stock into WOWY metrics (they should call the analytics police on me for even bringing it up). Still, it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward, especially if the Rieder-Eakin line continues to receive a lion’s share of the defensive zone starts (OZS rate for this duo is at 38.46-percent through four games).

Closing Thoughts

It’s early. I know it feels like I keep repeating that sentiment, but I’ll continue to do so for the first couple of months of the season. Underlying metrics are fun to examine and “trajectory track” at this time of year, but it would be irresponsible if I didn’t remind readers that through just four games, these metrics need to be taken with a big grain of salt.

Fortunately, most of the data I’ve seen from the above-mentioned players matches the eye test. On the flip side, it’s rare for a player like Eakin for instance to be a negative impact defensive player for nearly a decade, then at 30 years old, find success in heavy defensive usage. It’s not impossible, just rare.

At this point, the best thing we can do with these early metrics is to keep them in mind and use them in context. With all of that said, the early returns on Adams’ inaugural acquisitions have been very strong. Let’s hope that remains the case as more games are played.

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images

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