I’m not sure I’ve seen someone as snake-bitten as Jeff Skinner over an extended period of games. In his last 53 games, he’s shooting 4.7% with seven goals on 146 shots on goal. Over that same stretch, he’s ranked 11th in the league in individual shot quality at 5 on 5 among all players to play at least 100 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick.

It has been a wild run of poor luck for the 28-year-old winger. The good news is that while he hasn’t been putting the puck in the net he has still managed to provide a positive impact offensively for the Sabres. I’ve maintained that I won’t start to worry about Skinner until the scoring opportunities stop coming and that hasn’t happened yet. At some point, things should shift back in his favor.

Driving Offense vs Scoring on a Top Line

Through seven games this season Skinner is the ultimate example of production versus overall team impact. Ralph Krueger has utilized him on a line this season with Curtis Lazar and Riley Sheahan. A far cry from the offensive talent he played with two years ago in Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart when he scored 40 goals.

Krueger was criticized for this decision when it became clear what was happening near the end of training camp. I was among the critics. However, it has worked out very well for the Sabres head coach.

Now, you can debate if he fell into this on accident or it was his plan all along. On one hand, Krueger talked about Skinner needing to follow the “principles” to get an opportunity to play up the lineup. On the other, he discussed the need to spread scoring out throughout the lineup, which is accurate.

It’s honestly not that important because we are where we are now. So, let’s set that to the side.

A clamoring among the fan base remains that Skinner should be moved up the lineup because of how well he’s playing. We’re also seeing the Eichel line struggle to finish their chances even though they’re generating a lot of offense. Those two factors have made some fans antsy to make a change.

Well, I’m here to tell you the Sabres shouldn’t change anything with Skinner at this moment. What he’s doing right now in the role he’s in is more important than scoring a bunch of goals on Eichel’s line.

Let me explain.

Eichel’s line is going to get their goals. It doesn’t matter who is on that line at the end of the day. Eichel and Reinhart produced with Olofsson last season and if it weren’t for some poor luck they’d be doing the same with Taylor Hall this season. The top line this year is generating a higher offensive shot quality rate (xGF/60) at 5 on 5 than when Skinner was on that line two years ago, according to Natural Stat Trick. The goals are going to come with that trio.

What Skinner has done with Lazar and Sheahan is drive the bus on another line generating offense. Essentially making the club three lines deep in terms of scoring ability. While he has yet to put the puck in the net, his line has three goals through seven games at 5 on 5. According to Moneypuck, they lead the team in goals for per 60 minutes (3.19) among line combos to play over 30 minutes together and are second in shot quality for (2.02).

That line is riding some shooting luck at over 13%, but the best scorer on the line is shooting 0%. Therefore, as the shooting percentage of the other players comes back down, Skinner should be on the upswing.

Before I move too far away from it, I should note that Lazar and Sheahan have played well in their own regard. They’re not just passengers riding to coattails of Skinner.

It’s still early so some of these impact charts should be taken with a grain of salt, but Skinner is positively impacting offense this season at a similar rate to what he was during the 2018-19 season in Micah McCurdy’s model.

The simple way to put this is Skinner scoring at a 20 goals per 82 games rate or a little under that on his own line is more impactful than scoring at over a 30 goals per 82 games rate on the top line with Eichel. Based on the simple fact that, as I mentioned above, that top line is going to get its goals regardless based on the talent of Eichel and Reinhart.

While it’s frustrating that the goals haven’t come for him, he’s the main driver of offense on that line. Not only is that showing up in the numbers, but you can see it watching the games as well. Unfortunately, I only had the video of the Rangers game on hand, but I found two shifts to give examples of how he’s creating opportunity with strong forechecks.

In this first clip, he causes a neutral zone turnover and generates a quality scoring chance for Sheahan in the slot.

The other clip I have is his final shift of this game. It was actually an important shift in that game. The Sabres were on their heels and this line got out there to generate some offense late in the game with a strong forecheck.

Ice Time

I can appreciate the concern among some with Skinner’s time on ice at 5 on 5. I too would like him to see some more ice time, but he’s really not that far behind other forwards on the roster when you break it down.

He’s not buried on the fourth line. The way that Krueger is deploying his lines right now is there’s the top line (Eichel line) and everyone else. Natural Stat Trick has Eichel, Hall, and Reinhart all over 15 minutes per games played at 5 on 5. Skinner is ranked eighth in ice time per game at forward if you account for players to play at least three games.

That may not seem ideal, but he’s only receiving 59 seconds per game less than the fourth highest forward in Eric Staal. Staal is at 12:47 through seven games and Skinner sits at 11:48. In between, there are five other players. You can see how Krueger is basically just rolling his lines after his top line.

The other piece of good news is that Krueger has again shown the willingness to move Skinner up the lineup when his team is trailing or tied late in the game. He has over 14 minutes of ice time at 5 on 5 this season with Staal and just over seven minutes with Eichel. The team has been trailing or tied in 76% of those minutes he has played with the top two centers on the roster.

Again, this isn’t as big of a deal as it appears on the surface.

When all is said and done, Skinner does need to start putting the puck in the net at some point. He’s paid $9 million for that ability he has shown throughout his career. While he may not score at the 40 goal rate of two years ago or even a 30 goal rate. Being one of the top 5 on 5 scorers on the team, even if it’s not at a high rate, and driving his own line to be an impactful offensive threat is worth the paycheck as well. He helps the team be deeper and more difficult for opponents to match up against.

Data via: Natural Stat Trick, Moneypuck, and Hockeyviz.com

Photo Credit: Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images