Jeff Skinner is a player that will be talked about often this offseason. Coming off a down year, there is some belief that the Buffalo Sabres should look to see if they can get out from under the three years remaining on his contract.

The 32-year-old forward will have difficulty living up to the $9 million cap hit at this point in his career. If he’s closer to the 30-goal scorer he was the two years before this one, you can deal with the other shortcomings in his game.

Buyout

If Kevyn Adams decides to move on from Skinner, a buyout could be on the table. He has $22 million remaining on his contract. Therefore, according to Cap Friendly, here is how the buyout would break down if they did it this summer:

The Sabres would get a lot of cap relief this season but will carry a larger cap hit in the two years after. In this scenario, the cap penalty will be extended to the 2029-30 season.

If the Sabres are willing to go the buyout route, it may be better to try to squeeze one more season out of Skinner. With his salary being $10 million this season, they’d only be on the hook for $12 million in the summer of 2025. Waiting until next year is a more palatable buyout.

They would carry a slightly lower cap hit penalty in 25-26 and 26-27. The buyout would only extend to the 2028-29 season with a lower cap hit.

I have a hard time believing that Terry Pegula would be willing to eat the remainder of Skinner’s contract. This is a team that has been unwilling to utilize its cap space to acquire assets or retain money in various trades.

Trade

The other avenue the Sabres can examine is moving Skinner in a trade. His $9 million cap hit is going to be difficult to move. Even with the salary cap taking a significant jump this summer, there are not a lot of teams willing to bring on that contract for a potentially declining player.

Another factor at play here is Skinner carries a full no-move clause. If doesn’t want to waive it, the Sabres can’t trade him. Remember, when he was traded to Buffalo, the Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs were the only teams he was willing to waive for.

Adams will also have to decide if he’s willing to give up an asset to get him off the roster. Over the last two years, there have been five “cap dump” trades that we can look to for precedent.

Player	Remaining Contract	Retention	Trade Return	Asset Cost to Move
Ryan Johansen	2 years, $8 million AAV	50%	Alex Galchenyuk	n/a
Kevin Hayes	3 years, $7.42 million AAV	50%	6th round pick	n/a
Sean Monahan	2 years, $6.375 million AAV	0%	Future Considerations	2025 1st round pick
Max Pacioretty	1 year, $7 million	0%	Future Considerations	Dylan Coghlan
Matt Murray	2 years, $6.25 million	25%	Future Considerations	2023 3rd and 2024 7th round pick

In three of these five trades, the team dumping the player had to pay an asset to unload the contract. None of these players carried a cap hit as high as Skinner’s and only one had the same three years remaining on their deal.

A hypothetical Skinner deal probably costs something between what the Ottawa Senators gave up in the Matt Murray trade and the Ryan Johansen deal from last offseason. Once again, this brings us back to ownership. Is Pegula willing to eat $4.5 million for the next three years at 50% retention?

The less the Sabres retain in a trade, the heavier the price will be to move the contract. At that point, it becomes a debate if Skinner has performed poorly enough to need to give up assets.

Decline or down year?

My opinion is that his performance has not risen to the level where they need to give up pieces to get him off the team. I would look to move him down the lineup and shelter him with offensive usage. I understand that’s not ideal for a $9 million player, but the easiest move here is to try to bring back that 5 on 5 scoring.

In the two years before this past season, Skinner ranked seventh in 5 on 5 goals per 60 minutes. Last season, he ranked 86th. It was his fourth-lowest 5 on 5 scoring season of his 14-year career.

The Sabres have to figure out if he’s about to go over the cliff or if this was just a down year. Throughout his career, Skinner has been up and down. He has been better the three years before this one than the previous season. The downswing was heavy.

Looking back at his 2023-24 season, Skinner had a few things working against him. His linemates Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson started slowly while dealing with injuries. He ended up losing his spot on the top line and dealt with injuries of his own.

The red flag for me is that he had his lowest individual expected goal rating per 60 minutes of his career at 5 on 5, according to Evolving Hockey. His expected unblocked shooting percentage in the twins’ model was a career-low 6.13%. For reference, he had an 8.68% xFSh%.

Skinner is a player that makes his living around the net as a finisher. Those data points tell me he didn’t get to the net as much as he has in the past. Was it because of the injuries? Was it because the team as a whole struggled in that area? Has he lost a step and late getting to pucks?

I honestly think it’s a mixture of all three of those things. Having said that, I still believe in the right role he can be an effective offensive player for the Sabres next season. I envision a bottom-six role for him next season with reduced minutes and heavy offensive deployment. A depth-scoring line of Jiri Kulich, Peyton Krebs, and Skinner feels like it could work as a trio.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Cap Friendly

Photo Credit: Getty Images