It’s once again Sabres game night, and this year, we here at Expected Buffalo created a Discord server for subscribers. And since some of those subscribers have asked good questions, it feels like the best way to answer them is with an opening night mailbag! Want your questions answered in a future mailbag? Subscribe to our Patreon

@juscoo: I definitely wanna hear how you guys feel about Tage at center and if that has any chance at success: Bad news: I won’t answer this right now. Good news: I’m writing a post about it as we speak. I want to give it a couple of games to see it in action before finishing the post, but for now, to summarize: I’m not worried about whether or not they’re going to generate shots, but I’m concerned about how those will be generated and how they will get the puck to take those shots. At first thought, the defense pairs will likely drive a lot of the transition play when he is on the ice (likely with Oloffson and Asplund).

@Nickwid913: I wanna know if you think the Sabres could maybe go after Kravtsov or just your thoughts on that situation: This would be a much more fun question to look further into if the idea of the Sabres and Rangers trading felt realistic, which after this summer, doesn’t feel that. Eichel with Kravtsov involved in the trade package would probably make sense if it comes to that though. Otherwise, I don’t think the Sabres would want to pump multiple assets to get him. As for the situation as a whole, I’m honestly surprised it doesn’t happen more frequently. Some guys just don’t like the teams they are drafted to and would like a change of scenery. In the instances where they speak out about it, there’s nothing more than to make a trade (the right trade, of course, if you’re Chris Drury). 

@kozyshank: Would you pump and dump guys for assets at the potential expense for developmental ice time for younger players?: Simply put, once guys are ready, I’d prefer them to get NHL ice time as soon as they can. But of course, that relies on the trade market, which given the NHL, will mean that these moves wouldn’t occur until the week or so leading up to the trade deadline. So especially considering that most of the full-time roster spots from guys like Hagg, Butcher, Miller, Hinostroza, etc. won’t be available until mid-March, the body of work the next wave of Rochester guys will be large enough to get a sense of what they will be able to contribute for the remaining games of 2022. The Sabres are in asset acquiring mode, so once the front office concludes that they don’t see an expiring player as part of the team’s future, they should go right on the block.

@SKS: Maybe predictions on who will move up from Rochester by the end of the season and likewise who will move down: I’m going to save this one for next week leading up to the Amerks opener. But rapid-fire for now: Peterka, Murray, Laaksonen, Fitzgerald, and Davidson are the five guys I expect to be in the injury rotation of going up and down. UPL should be the up and down guy of the three Amerks goalies. As for Quinn? That’s still complicated.

@juscoo (good job with two questions!): How’s everybody feeling about night 1 of ESPN?: I’ll include TNT in here too since I have the Chicago v Colorado game on the TV. Both broadcasts have been impressive especially compared to NBC’s product. The Rush was cool from ESPN matched with the ice-end camera to show the speed of the game. TNT knows they had a great NBA product and applied it to the NHL as a starting point. I’m sure that will develop more as the season goes on. I’m excited to see how well streaming goes for ESPN+ in the coming days. I hope Steve Levy gets some national games after the NFL season.

@Armadillo66 Over the years I have theorized that maybe it feels like a power play split across periods is doomed if it makes it to the next period. Statistically is that true or am I just making that up? Are power plays less successful if split across periods? Oooh, this is a really good question. Your theory supports the logic of what an intermission-interrupted powerplay would entail. I was unable to find data to look directly into this but to model this, it would probably entail the following variables: Time remaining in the powerplay at period-beginning faceoff, the team that wins the opening faceoff, and how good that team is at re-entering the zone on the powerplay. With the best power plays scoring only 25% of the time, most of them are unlikely to score, so adding those extra obstacles affects how likely it is for the team to get a powerplay goal. It’s just a matter of someday having the data available to learn just how much less likely it becomes.

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And since it’s season-opening time, it’s time for some quick predictions: 

Atlantic	Metro	Central	Pacific
Tampa Bay – East 1 seed	New York Islanders	Colorado – President’s Trophy	Vegas
Florida	Pittsburgh	Dallas	Edmonton
Boston	Washington	Minnesota	Calgary
Toronto – WC1	Carolina – WC2	Winnipeg – WC2	Seattle – WC1
Montreal	New York Rangers	St. Louis	Anaheim
Ottawa	New Jersey	Nashville	Los Angeles
Buffalo – 30	Philadelphia	Chicago – 28	Vancouver
Detroit – 31	Columbus	Arizona – 29	San Jose – 32

East

Tampa Bay over Carolina

Boston over Florida

New York Islanders over Toronto

Washington over Pittsburgh

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Tampa Bay over Boston

New York Islanders over Washington

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Tampa Bay over New York Islanders

West

Colorado over Winnipeg

Minnesota over Dallas

Vegas over Seattle

Edmonton over Calgary

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Colorado over Minnesota

Vegas over Edmonton

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Colorado over Vegas

Stanley Cup

Colorado Over Tampa Bay

Buffalo not last? Okay, look. Hockey is weird. Nobody is good at predicting anything. Even with the best data, the variability of expectations, and the error of roster changes and things like that change so much that beginning of the year predictions are best for right now: You reading this getting ready for tonight’s faceoff. Detroit hasn’t proven that they are so much better than the Sabres that I have to feel inclined to put them in the 7th spot in the Atlantic, so I’m going to leave room for hope today that the Sabres could outperform them. Detroit gives off feelings of the past couple of years of Sabres teams where they look better and it still just looks the same. Plus, I think San Jose is one or two injuries away from being the first team to finish 32 in the NHL. The Sabres are probably looking at anywhere between 29 and 32 in the league, even if 32 is the most likely. 

What happens with Jack Eichel? I’ve given up on trying to guess. My best answer is, verbatim, “Vegas? I think?”

Other quick thoughts:

-Toronto’s placing will depend mostly on Jack Campbell. The Atlantic could finish in any order of those top four teams. 

-Any of Carolina, Montreal, the Rangers, New Jersey, and Philadelphia could realistically get that second wild-card spot. Goaltending is probably key here too

-Too many models are picking Seattle to make the playoffs for me to ignore. Their division is also looking rough. That, combined with the bottom five teams in the Central probably beating each other up and driving down each other’s point totals, is what keeps them as the first wild card spot.

-Can we please have Colorado and Vegas in the West finals? Please? I’m asking nicely

Okay, that’s good for now. Hockey is a game. Remember to have fun this year. Find something, whether the Sabres, NHL, Amerks, NCAAs, etc., to keep you happy watching hockey this year.

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images