Unless the Buffalo Sabres can successfully flip one of their defensemen (along with some other assets) for a legitimate top-six forward help this offseason, they may need to pursue one via free agency. It is well-established that there are very few reasonable options to fill said role on the open market in 2020 (with the Sabres’ fickle cap situation in mind).

Knowing what we do about the NHL as a whole, second-line centers are rarely made available via trade. Even if one could be acquired, it would probably take more assets than the Sabres currently have available, unless they part with the eighth-overall pick. Even then, it might not be enough. With that in mind, what can Kevyn Adams do to acquire a possession-driving winger (or two), should the likes of Rasmus Ristolainen of Brandon Montour not garner such a return?

One particular veteran forward stood out as an all-around solid option, should the Sabres look for scoring reinforcements via free-agency. As a current member of the Nashville Predators, Craig Smith is expected to hit the open market in October (or whenever the truncated offseason ends up commencing). Even though he’ll be on the wrong side of 30 next season, his versatility and extraordinarily consistent impacts are impossible to ignore.

We’ll start by examining his well-rounded skillset on what has been a perennially competitive Nashville squad. In nine seasons with the Predators, Smith has never once posted a negative relative xG percentage. Last season, his mark of 8.08 was the second-highest of his career (9.67 in 2017-18). As for his Corsi metrics, only once did he post a negative campaign, which occurred eight years ago.

As anyone who regularly reads my work knows, when examining versatility, I look at performance correlations between xG and OZS rate. This serves as a tool to help determine whether a given player’s strong metrics might have been partially due to a “sheltered” deployment.

Up until last season, this could have looked like a potential concern for Smith. As of 2018-19, he had only once served in a defensively tilted zone-start rate. That itself is not an issue, but it happened to come during the 2012-13 campaign, his second full season, and the only year of his career where his on-ice could be argued as negative.

In the seasons that followed, his offensive-zone faceoff rate skyrocketed, reaching its highest point in 2015-16 at 77.52-percent. Last season, he only took about 48-percent of his faceoffs in the offensive zone. If it had again resulted in negative impacts, that would have been a red flag, but, as mentioned above, this was not the case. The fact that he was able to post the second-best xG mark of his career, in that deployment style (and at his age) was good to see.

While it was nice to see him succeed in said role, there is no denying that Smith’s presence is felt the most in the offensive-zone. His defensive impacts, while quite strong, have been a little less consistent throughout his career and he’s always generated shots better than he’s prevented them.

Smith has reached gaudy shot contribution numbers in the past, but his unblocked rate in 2019-20 (as illustrated above) was by far the best of his career. For a Sabres team that struggles to generate scoring chances, his presence would be a welcome addition.

A similar shooting trend also took place on the Predators’ power-play unit (something the Sabres have struggled with since Bob Woods was behind the bench), where Smith was once again, an extremely positive presence. Without Smith, Nashville averaged an xG/60 rate of 7.73 on the man-advantage, which was nine-percent higher than the league average. In the 157-minutes he was on the ice however, that mark jumped to 8.56 (20-percent higher than the league average).

There is a “catch” of sorts to all of this. In reviewing the isolated impacts and transition metrics for his most common linemates in Nick Bonino and Rocco Grimaldi, it becomes clear that Smith was part of an extremely complimentary line last season in Nashville. The balance in skillset we see from that trio is masterful optimization work from the Nashville coaching staff.

Bonino, despite his shortcomings as a shot-contributor and transition asset, provided defensive stability, and a solid net-front presence on offense. Grimaldi served as a high-event transition asset who generated a lot of primary-shot assists. His liabilities as a defender were mitigated to an extent as a result of playing with Bonino.

As for Smith – he was more of a balanced contributor, proving capable in all of the aforementioned areas. He posted well-above-average zone-exit and zone-entry numbers and did a solid job defensively as well. The primary-shot assists were not very high, but he made up for it in a big way by generating his own shooting opportunities. On the year, his unblocked shot-count of 250 at even-strength was significantly higher than his linemates (142 for Bonino, and 161 for Grimaldi). This all goes hand-in-hand with the 2019-20 heatmap posted above.

Let’s take a step back here. With such stellar offensive impacts, how is it that Smith only generated 31 points in 69 games (a per-game ratio that has remained relatively consistent throughout his career) this season? Part of it has to do with the fact that, at even strength, only one Predator forward (who played at least 30 games) had a lower TOI average than Smith at 11:07 per-game. That is more than a 90-second reduction from 2018-19. It’s also nearly two minutes fewer than he skated at even-strength in 2017-18, a year where he posted career bests in goals and overall points with 25 and 51, respectively.

If you were to only look at his base offensive production, it might seem like Smith was slowing down as he approached 30, but the metrics indicate that this is not the case. The significant TOI reduction is noteworthy, but it’s probably more indicative of Nashville’s forward depth than anything else. That said, his massive impact numbers may (in part) require similar players alongside him in order to be replicated, especially in a defensively tilted zone-start ratio.

The only problem is that the Sabres do not currently have anyone similar to Bonino at center, and while someone like Marcus Johansson could potentially replicate Grimaldi’s transition numbers on the opposite wing, he doesn’t create nearly as much offensively (conversely, does give up less on defense).

As is the case with any potential free-agent target, a player could look great on paper, but reality sets in when projecting their next contract. According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool, Smith should look for something in the three-year, $4.4 million AAV range in free-agency. As he enters the “back-nine” of his career, he’d probably look to jump on with a contending team. Pair that with what will surely be a healthy demand for his services, and it would likely force the Sabres to overpay to acquire him.

Assuming Smith would even consider Buffalo, let’s conservatively project that deal at four years at an average of $5 million-per-year. For a team that has to carefully navigate their salary situation under a flat cap for the next few years, a contract like that might be tough to justify. If he were a little younger, perhaps it would be easier to swing.

Still, a veteran option like Smith could be an ideal candidate to place alongside Dylan Cozens next season in order to take some of the “line-driving” pressure off of his shoulders. If Adams is indeed forced by circumstance to re-create the Casey Mittelstadt experiment by deploying a teenager as his second-line center (yes, Cozens is a more polished prospect, but the sentiment remains), improving the team’s depth, experience, and overall talent on the wing is a necessity.

RAPM Chat courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

xG, Corsi, and TOI metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Transition Data courtesy of Charting Hockey

Photo credit: Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images