The message from the Buffalo Sabres over the past month has been about building a lean organization that is more efficient. It’s not out of the question that this plan to be more “efficient” extends to player spending. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to fans if the Sabres decided not to spend up to the cap ceiling next season.

Elliotte Friedman speculated as much today:

Friedman adds the Buffalo Sabres are a team that everyone is looking at once UFA starts, they have tons of cap room, but they just went through cost cutting phase, EF is not sure if they will go anywhere near the cap.

— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) July 14, 2020

Every season in the Pegula era the Sabres have been a team that spent to the cap ceiling. Next year could be different with everything surrounding the team due to the pandemic and change in approach.

At first glance, it may seem as though not spending to the cap is a bad thing for the team on the ice. It’s not ideal to implement an internal cap, but it doesn’t mean the team still can’t be competitive. If they’re going in the direction of analytics, they should be able to find some under the radar players to add to their club.

Being the fancy stats nerd I am, I tried to put together a team that could be competitive on paper and had between $7 to $9 million remaining in cap space when the roster is complete. I know people like the mock offseasons and trade ideas so here’s another one for your enjoyment with a small twist.

Restricted Free Agents and Draft

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first. The Sabres have a handful of RFA’s to re-sign this offseason. Here are the players I re-signed and their cap hits:

• Sam Reinhart – 5 years, $7 million AAV
• Victor Olofsson – 4 years, $4.5 million AAV
• Dominik Kahun – 2 years, $2.75 million AAV
• Tage Thompson – 1 year, $800k AAV
• Curtis Lazar – 1 year, $813k AAV
• Linus Ullmark – 3 years, $2.25 million AAV

Combined, these six total $18.11 million in cap space. That leaves me roughly $16 million in cap space to use the remainder of the offseason. 

The next thing to cross off the list is the NHL Draft. I keep the pick at eight and select Anton Lundell out of Finland. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who follow me. I feel like he’s a perfect fit for the Sabres if he’s on the board at eight. Here is how I have the top eight picks breaking down:

1. TBD – Alexis Lafreniere
2. Kings – Quinton Byfield
3. Senators- Marco Rossi
4. Red Wings – Tim Stutzle
5. Senators – Jamie Drysdale
6. Ducks – Lucas Raymond
7. Devils – Alexander Holtz
8. Sabres – Anton Lundell

Trades

Alright, let’s get to the fun part of this and go through how I put the Sabres roster together. I’ll start by taking you through my thought process on the trades that I made. 

Trade 1: Brandon Montour (D) traded to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Andrew Copp (F)

This one is pretty simple. The Jets have a need on the right side of their blue line and Montour immediately fits that role for them. Rasmus Ristolainen was almost on his way to the Jets last summer, but this time it’s Montour actually being dealt. 

In return, the Sabres acquire their bridge center in Copp. The 26-year-old forward isn’t going to fill the role as the 50-point second-line center behind Eichel, but he would help in a lot of other areas of the game. He’s a positive impact player at both ends of the ice and would be a big upgrade on the penalty kill. 

Copp has one year remaining on his deal and this is a restricted free agent in the 2021 offseason.

Trade 2: Rasmus Ristolainen (D) and Casey Mittelstadt (F) traded to the Florida Panthers in exchange for MacKenzie Weegar (D), Henrik Borgstrom (F), and a 2020 second-round pick

There’s a lot going on in this one and it may not be return that you expected for Ristolainen. So, let me break down my thought process.

In this trade, I’m banking on the Panthers not realizing that the better defenseman in these deal is Weegar. While he doesn’t produce offensively at the same level as Ristolainen, he’s cheaper and impacts the game better at both ends of the ice at 5 on 5.

It’s rare in Micah’s model that you see a defenseman with impacts like the ones you see above in the offensive zone and on goal scoring. The 26-year-old could step in on the right side of the blue to replace the vacancy from moving Montour and Ristolainen.

Weegar is a restricted free agent and using Evolving Hockey’s contract projections as the baseline, I gave him a two-year contract with a $2.75 million cap hit.

The other part of this trade is a straight swap of prospects that are struggling for each club. The Panthers appear to be done with Borgstrom as he wasn’t added to their return to play roster. There were also rumors that he would be heading overseas next season to play in Finland if he wasn’t going to play in the NHL with the Panthers.

We are all well aware of the struggles of Mittelstadt in the Sabres organization.

Looking at Byron Bader’s NHLe model, I’m banking on the better chance of NHL success with Borgstrom. I also see the big Finnish forward as having a better shot at playing center in the NHL. Whereas Mittelstadt, I see him as a winger at the top level.

Having Dylan Cozens, Borgstrom, and Lundell in the organization gives me the potential of high-end talent at the center position. Something this organization hasn’t had in a few years.

Borgstrom is a restricted free agent and was given a two-year deal with a cap hit of $858k

Trade 3: Rasmus Asplund (F), 2020 second-round pick (FLA), and a conditional 2022 fourth-round pick traded to the New York Islanders in exchange for Anthony Beauvillier (F) and Thomas Hickey (D)

This trade is a situation where the Sabres are taking advantage of a poor cap situation for the Islanders. According to Cap Friendly, they have roughly $8 million in cap space with Mat Barzal, Ryan Pulock, and Devon Toews as restricted free agents.

Hickey is the cap dump that I take on from the Islanders in this deal. The 31-year-old defender has two years left on his contract with a $2.5 million cap hit. I would follow the Islanders’ decision and send Hickey to the AHL, which would save me $1.025 million in cap space. He can act as the veteran leader for a young blue line that is forming in Rochester.

The reward for helping the Islanders get some cap space is a middle-six winger in Anthony Beauvillier. The 23-year-old would add some much-needed offensive to the Sabres lineup. He has been one of the best forwards on the Islanders in individual shot quality (ixG) at 5 on 5 over the last three years, according to Moneypuck. He could be a good winger to play alongside Cozens.

The Islanders can’t afford to take salary back in this trade. Asplund is an NHL-ready prospect that can step into the bottom of their lineup. The second-round pick gives them a pick in the first two rounds of the 2020 NHL Draft. The fourth-round pick would become a third-round pick in 2022 if the Sabres make the playoffs in either of the next two seasons.

Free Agency

I put my finishing touches on the team with two signings in unrestricted free agency. The first signing fills a need on the left side of the blue line. I signed defenseman Jon Merrill to a one-year contract worth $2.8 million. He’s an underrated defender that played well for the Vegas Golden Knights that last few years. His impacts in the defensive zone are impressive and he could be a good partner for Henri Jokiharju.

Merrill can step in and allow the handful of left-shot defenders in the system to continue to develop for another season.

The second signing was Cam Talbot to a one year deal worth $1.8 million. He bounced back this season in Calgary and would be a good veteran to sit behind Linus Ullmark.

Speaking of the goaltenders, it should be noted that I waived Carter Hutton to the AHL in this scenario. Again, it saves me $1.025 million in cap space. It also gives Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen a veteran goaltender to learn from in his first full AHL season.

Here is how my roster shakes out when all is said and done:

Forwards

Victor Olofsson – Jack Eichel – Sam Reinhart

Jeff Skinner – Andrew Copp – Marcus Johansson

Anthony Beauvillier – Dylan Cozens – Dominik Kahun

Arttu Ruotsalainen – Curis Lazar – Kyle Okposo

Tage Thompson

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin – MacKenzie Weegar

Jon Merrill – Henri Jokiharju

Jake McCabe – Colin Miller

Will Borgen

Goaltender

Linus Ullmark – Cam Talbot

This lineup leaves $7 million in cap space remaining. It also sets up some roster interesting battles for ice time. Ruotsalainen, Thompson, and Borgstrom would compete for the final two spots on the roster.

On defense Borgen and Miller would compete for ice time on the blue line.

There you have it. Another fun roster projection for you to digest and consider some fun trade options.

Data via: Hockeyviz.com, Evolving Hockey, Moneypuck, Cap Friendly, and Hockeyprospecting.com

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images