In reviewing each NHL team’s projected salary cap space for next season, there are only a few of them that absolutely need to shed salary this offseason. The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of those teams. With eight restricted free-agents on expiring deals and just over $5 million in projected cap space, veteran bodies will assuredly be on the move.

The headliner on the Blue Jackets’ RFA list is 22-year-old center, Pierre-Luc Dubois. His next contract, whether it be short or long-term, will likely single-handedly put his team over the cap. If you add players like Josh Anderson, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Devin Shore to the mix, it could equate to another $6.5 million against the cap, on top of Dubois’ extension, according to Evolving Hockey.

Any way you slice it, Columbus will likely have to move multiple existing pieces in order to be cap compliant next season and retain most of their key restricted assets.

Blue Jackets Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Cap Space (Projected via Cap Friendly): $5.2 Million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Josh Anderson (arbitration-eligible), Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kevin Stenlund, Gabriel Carlsson, Ryan MacInnis (arbitration-eligible), Jakob Lilja (arbitration-eligible), Devin Shore (arbitration-eligible), Vladislav Gavrikov (10.2C)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: None

Projected Needs: Cap Space, Futures

Potential Trade Targets

Josh Anderson – RW | Age 26 | RFA

We’ll start with the most popular, and frequently discussed option for the Sabres in pending RFA winger, Josh Anderson. Prior to the NHL trade deadline, there were rumblings that Buffalo was in discussions with Columbus regarding the 26-year-old in a deal that would have sent Rasmus Ristolainen back the other way.

Anderson is a bit of a roller-coaster to analyze. After catching fire in 2018-19, he cooled off this season, registering just four points in 26 games before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. As of May 27, Tom Gulitti of NHL.com reported that he might not even be cleared for small group training until August.

Last season, his metrics were outstanding, particularly on offense. Ranking fourth among Blue Jackets forwards in xGAR with a mark of 8.7 on the year, he totaled career-bests with 27 goals and 47 points. Interestingly enough, his isolated impacts on offense from the 2018-19 season were essentially replicated in the 24 games he played in 2019-20.

Obviously, the base statistical production didn’t come with it this time, but that certainly seems like an outlier issue. In terms of expected-goals, despite his point production (or lack thereof), he was pacing out to post his highest xG percentage of his career at 54.97. Another big reason behind the low point total could be attributed to PDO. Compared to last season, Anderson’s on-ice shooting percentage dropped by 4.21-percent, which contributed to a PDO mark of .965 compared to 1.04 in 2018-19.

If the Sabres want a low-risk, high-reward option to fill out their thin ranks on the wing, Anderson might be one of the most enticing options on the trade market. They would of course be gambling with the condition of his shoulder moving forward, but if he can replicate the offensive metrics he posted from 2017 to 2019, he’d be a slam-dunk acquisition.

According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, Anderson should land in the 2-3 year range at $2.65 million AAV. Coming off a major injury on a team with very little financial wiggle room, it seems likely that he will be aggressively shopped on the trade market.

Given the Blue Jackets’ salary cap situation, there would probably have to be additional assets being moved as part of the framework, particularly if Ristolainen is one of the pieces going back. Otherwise, it might not make sense financially for Columbus to shop Anderson for futures, something Buffalo doesn’t currently have in spades.

Riley Nash – C/RW | Age 31 | Two years, $2.75 million AAV

As a result of his age and salary, Riley Nash might be another veteran incumbent made available by the Blue Jackets this offseason. In the event that the Sabres do not retain Johan Larsson, Nash could be an excellent option to assume a defensive specialist role down the middle in Buffalo.

While Nash doesn’t give you the same possession impacts that Larsson does, his ability to thwart danger as a forward is outstanding. When Columbus signed him as an unrestricted free-agent in 2018, fans in Buffalo were disappointed that he didn’t end up with the Sabres. Despite his age, the defensive metrics he posted during his time with the Boston Bruins have translated seamlessly to John Tortorella’s system.

While Nash wasn’t asked to operate in the same low DZS circumstances that Larsson did in 2019-20, last season he did very well with an OZS rate of 30.37-percent. In fact, his xG and Corsi percentages were better in that role, compared to the 46.22-percent OZS rate he experienced this season.

There is a very real chance that Kevyn Adams will let both Larsson, and Zemgus Girgensons hit the open market in October. If that’s the case, they need to find defensively competent forwards either via trade or free agency.

Columbus needs to replenish their futures in the form of both draft picks and prospects. They don’t have a second-round pick this season or next, and their farm system isn’t anything to write home about. Nash shouldn’t be too difficult to acquire for a mid-round draft pick, and if the asking price is reasonable, he’s an option worth considering.

David Savard – D | Age 29 | Two years, $4.5 million AAV

Due to the Blue Jacket’s current surplus of defensive assets, David Savard is a bit of an “outside the box” idea that comes with some caveats. With players like Seth Jones, Ryan Murray, and Zach Werenski in the fold, Savard could be the odd-man-out after a down year, statistically.

Before we get too far, it’s important to mention that this idea is predicated on the off-chance that the Sabres decide to trade both Ristolainen and Brandon Montour this offseason. Should that happen, Buffalo could look to add a steady veteran to fill-out the defensive top-six.

Leading up to the 2019-20 campaign, the 29-year-old was probably the best “defensive defenseman” on the roster who could also chip-in on offense. His relative xG of 4.56 on the year was second only to Murray among Columbus blueliners. On top of that, his OZS rate of 46.05-percent was the lowest among his contemporaries, and with the fourth-highest TOI at even-strength, he served as his team’s go-to shutdown defender (and performed very well in said role).

This season, his base statistics were down (11 points in 68 games) as were his underlying metrics, but his skill set could be exactly what the Sabres need, and the price to acquire him should be very reasonable. Despite his age and lackluster 2019-20 performance, Savard was still a net-positive impact player for the Blue Jackets and is a good player to take a gamble on with just two years remaining on his deal.

That said, if the acquisition price is higher than say, a second-round pick, the Sabres should turn their sights elsewhere. Good defensive defensemen can be had for a much lower cap hit on the open market, and while they might not give you the same net-result, the drop-off probably wouldn’t be all that severe.

Joonas Korpisalo – G | Age 26 | Two-years, $2.8 million AAV

Since the Sabres were involved in some goaltending trade rumors during the 2019-20 season, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Joonas Korpisalo as a potential target. Now that Elvis Merzlikins is in the fold with a freshly-inked two-year, $4 million AAV contract, there is a chance that Korpisalo could be shipped-out this offseason despite signing a two-year extension of his own in April.

As most who follow my work are already aware, I’m pretty averse to acquiring goaltending help via trade. While Korpisalo is still young by goaltending standards, his unremarkable season paired with the Sabres’ already thin stable of tradeable assets might make this an ill-advised way to address the position.

Compared to a player like Aaron Dell (who could be acquired for nothing as a UFA). Korpisalo doesn’t really stand out in any discernable way. On what was one of the best defensive teams in hockey last season, his workload was relatively easy with poor results. Dell was much more successful under a significantly more difficult set of circumstances.

While Korpisalo is four years younger and carries a conceivably higher ceiling, as previously mentioned, the Sabres need to be very careful how they handle their futures on the trade market. With so many holes to address up front, spending trade capital for a rotational starter seems like mismanagement of assets when a capable free-agent option could serve the same purpose, and potentially (dare I say, likely) deliver better results.

RAPM Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

xG and Deployment Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

GSAx Chart courtesy of Charting Hockey

Photo credit: Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images