I could’ve previewed last week’s Bandits v FireWolves first-round playoff matchup, but external factors kept me from doing much more than some quick tweeting between countless naps since last Wednesday.

But hey, I did pretty well on my keys, so let’s start there. The Buffalo Bandits defeated the Albany FireWolves in their 1v4 first-round matchup this past Saturday in front of 12,535 in Banditland.

My first two keys came to fruition, as the Bandits put on a defensive and goaltending clinic on their way to a 10-5 win.

🔑2️⃣

Keep things simple defensively: Matt Vinc will be bringing his A game as he’s done throughout his career in the playoffs. If the defense keeps ALB’s attempts to the outside with little traffic in the shot lanes, the saves will be made

— First Line Lacrosse (@FirstLine_Lax) May 7, 2022

Matt Vinc added to his already illustrious playoff resume with 45 saves on 50 shots on goals faced. Dominant. The Bandits’ defense held their end of the bargain too with the limit of Albany’s offense to only 50 SOG on 74 total attempts. The Bandits’ offense started slow with only two goals of their own in the first half, but as has been the theme this year, it’s a matter of when, not if, a goal run is coming. It wasn’t lengthy in this game, but when they come out of halftime and score 14 seconds into the third quarter and then again 92 seconds into the third, the score effects change in the blink of an eye. The Bandits responded to each of Albany’s second-half goals and then added two empty netters in the final two minutes for a cushion to solidify their spot in the league’s semifinals. Dhane Smith once again led the team in scoring with 2 goals and 4 assists while Josh Byrne and Connor Fields each added 2 goals and 2 assists of their own.

They will face the Toronto Rock on Sunday, May 15 at 6 pm for the first game of the best 2 of 3 series.

The Rock reached the East Final after finishing off the Halifax Thunderbirds in an overtime track meet. After a 5-1 first-quarter lead for Rock during which they chased Warren Hill in favor of Aaron Bold, and a 9-3 lead at the half, the Thunderbirds fought back outshooting the Rock 36-19 in shots on goal in the second half and even led 13-12 5:33 into the fourth. Tom Schreiber’s goal a few minutes later forced nodded it up at 13 and that took the game to overtime where Challen Rogers went coast to coast and won the game on a breakaway. Tom Schreiber (3G 2A), Rob Hellyer, and Zach Manns (2G 3A each) led the Rock offensively with 5-point nights while Nick Rose stopped 41 of 54 shots to preserve the eventual victory.

As the dust settled on the regular season, it became clear that the Bandits and Rock were the top two teams in the East, so it’s fortunate for all those with interest in the league that we will get at least two more matchups between the two teams this season. Across the last 6 matchups, the series is even a 3 apiece. Why 6? Well…

2019 NLL Eastern Division Finals: This is the second consecutive Eastern Division Final between the Bandits and Rock, from the last time the NLL had playoffs (COVID). As customary, the Bandits had a 4-0 run in the fourth quarter to break open an 8-7 to 12-7 on their way to a 12-8 win. The full game is on the NLL’s YouTube page if you feel inclined to check it out. Both Nick Rose and Matt Vinc went over 0.800 save percentages, and Dhane Smith led the Bandits with a 5-point night.

January 18, 2020: Buffalo defeats Toronto 10-8. After another slow start in the first matchups between these two teams following the playoff game, the Bandits use a 4-goal run and a 5-1 stretch to end the first half to provide the cushioning needed to hold off the Rock in Buffalo. Josh Byrne and Chase Fraser each registered hat tricks in the victory, while Rob Hellyer had 5 goals and an assist to lead the Rock.

February 9, 2020: Toronto defeats Buffalo 13-9 at Scotiabank Arena after Toronto shuts down the Bandits’ offense in the second half. After the game with tied at 8 at the half, the Bandits nearly went 30 full minutes between goals. Toronto during this time scored one goal in the third and four in the fourth to pull away to even the season series. Dhane Smith led the Bandits with 3 goals and Matt Gilray had 2 goals and 3 assists out the back door. Dan Dawson had 3 goals and 4 assists to lead the Rock.

Then the Bandits and Rock were scheduled to play on March 13, 2020, in the rubber match, which, you guessed it, didn’t happen.

And now we get sad because I don’t have charts for this season’s games (yet…It’s a summer project and hopefully the league doesn’t change stats partners next year so I can start next season with weekly data refreshes). The hyperlinks for these games are the game recaps from NLL.com

January 8, 2022: Bandits defeat Rock 12-6 in Buffalo. Another Bandits game to match their ideal game script, as they opened the game up 3-0 after 1, Toronto tied it at 4 in the second, and then Buffalo scored the 8 of the final 10 goals and cruised to a victory. Josh Byrne had 4 goals and 4 assists and Chase Fraser added 4 goals of his own while Dhane Smith added a goal and distributed 5 assists. Matt Vinc saved 45 of 51 shots. Tom Schreiber missed this game for Toronto.

Also, the fourth quarter was, shall we say, chippy

February 9, 2022: Rock defeat Bandits 12-10 in Hamilton. While this game was not as chippy with only 11 total penalties handed out compared to the 16 in the fourth quarter alone of the first matchup, it was a slugfest within the means of the game. It was Toronto this time that started hot with 4 goals in each of the first two quarters, and then after going scoreless in the third, managed to continue to hold the Bandits off in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight after the Bandits tied the game at 9 halfway through the fourth quarter. Tom Schreiber led the Rock with 4 goals and 2 assists to make up for time lost in the previous matchup. Victor’s TD Ierlan won 25 of the 26 faceoffs in this one, but it is a note that Max Adler was not yet signed to the Bandits to accommodate for their struggles in the faceoff circle during the first half of the season.

April 30, 2022: I figured coming into this game, since it was the last of the regular season and each of the two teams had their seeding locked in, that this would be a weird game that probably wouldn’t have much to take away from it, and I think I was right (which is why in the end I didn’t write anything up for it)? The Bandits led 5-1 at the half, 6-3 after 3, and 7-4 1:54 into the 4th before Toronto finished the game out with 6 straight goals to win 10-7. Schreiber and Challen Rogers each had 4 point nights to lead Toronto’s offense, Nick Rose made 42 saves on 49 shots on goal, and their defense led Dhane Smith without a single point for the only time this season. It didn’t necessarily seem like an end-of-season throwaway game, especially as John Gurtler mentioned on the broadcast during the first-round matchup with Albany that the team stayed back in the locker room longer than anticipated before commencing in Fan Appreciation Night ceremonies. Frankly, the Rock beat the Bandits with their own game. Whether that was because they put the brakes on too early or not, we’ll never know.

Scouting The Rock

Built on the Back End – Rock GM Jamie Dawick set out during the COVID break to take his defense from great to elite, and the combination of new faces and nearly two years of development of their existing youth, and the Rock finished the season only giving up 166 goals to lead the league. This was highlighted by trading for Mitch de Snoo after 5 seasons with the Bandits. Brad Kri followed up his breakout in 2019-20 with another strong season in 2021-22. De Snoo and Kri shared that the team lead caused turnovers during the regular season with 39 each. And no conversation about the Rock defense is complete without their two transition stars: Challen Rogers and Latrell Harris. Each of them was outstanding in their 5th season. The 24-year-old Harris has come into his own this year after only playing a single game in 2019-20 due to injury and chipped in 8 goals and 10 assists and 114 loose balls which were good for third on the team behind De Snoo (185) and Kri (127). As for Rogers, he played more out the front door this year as a definitive transition player, including a lot of special teams time, and finished fourth on the team in points with 21 goals and 28 assists to go along with 79 loose balls and 12 caused turnovers of his own. This unit plays very soundly both on and off-ball, so the Bandits will need to make sure their screen game is strong this series to counter.

Goaltending Clinic Ahead: I’ve stressed countless times this year that Matt Vinc has been having another goaltender of the year season and has continued to validate that throughout the season. But it’s not without having been very contested in the competition by a 14-year vet, Nick Rose, who put up an 0.803 save percentage this season with a 9.05 goals-against average to counter Vinc’s .807 SV% 10.10 GAA. He led a Toronto unit that only allowed 10 goals once in their final 9 games, including 7 GA in 3 of their last 4 games. In the goaltender of the year discussion, it’s very close, and the only reason I’d still side with Vinc is because of the much higher volume of shots that Buffalo gave up compared to Toronto’s. Both, however, are very deserving. Rose is the poster goalie for an angles style where he relies on his positioning to make saves and when he is squared up, he will usually be fairly still (which makes some of his goals allowed not look great, but that usually means the shot would’ve gone in by the smallest of margins. With this, the key to beating Rose is to pass East-West and get a fair share of quick sticks to open up the available space for the ball to enter the net (Which, yes, is very hockey).

Right Side Strong Side: Toronto’s defense and goaltending were their calling cards this season, but don’t let that take away from their offense, who finished 3rd in goals for with 207 when the dust settled on the regular season. It starts with the right side for them with Tom Schreiber, the probable MVP finalist who tied with Joe Resetarits and Lyle Thompson for a league-leading 47 goals. His 39 assists add up to 86 points which placed him 13th in scoring in the league this season. It’s interesting to see Schreiber having transitioned this season from a facilitator in his first 4 seasons for a scorer this year, with 95 goals and 176 assists in his first 52 career games coming into 2021-22, especially when considering he is heavily regarded as one of if not the best passer in the world in the field game (Guess it shows how good he is, in general, more than anything). I discussed Challen Rogers’s role on the offense above, which leaves us with Rob Hellyer and Dan Dawson as the #2 and #3 option on the right side. Hellyer had 18 goals and 45 assists this season after an MVP runner-up campaign in 2019-20, one during which Schreiber only played 5 of the team’s 11 games. Then to round out the depth on that side, they have one of the league’s all-time greats in Dan Dawson who still put up 17 goals and 28 assists in 14 games at the age of 41. Dawson surpassed John Tavares this season for the record for assists earlier this season as well. While not nearly as dominant as he was earlier in his career, his vision hasn’t missed a beat and his post-up game is still phenomenal.

When you have three exceptional passers on the right side of the floor, it’s going to do wonders for lefty shooters. Dan Craig would confirm this. Craig had a breakout season of his own this year. After putting up 40 goals and 59 assists in his first 37 career games over three seasons, the lefty played the full 18-game season and registered 34 goals and 45 assists, primarily as their left side’s outside shooter who will also appear behind the net occasionally on the power play. He also registered 105 loose balls as the offense’s premier offensive rebounder.

The most efficient way to cover this offense is to keep them from getting comfortable and then obviously doing as much as possible to keep the ball out of Tom Schreiber’s stick. That won’t be easy, though, as there are two big ways that Toronto could counter: First is Hellyer and Dawson pick up their contribution and it just becomes a different distribution problem, and the second is that not letting them be comfortable comes with the Bandits needing to increase their transition play, which of course would keep the ball out of their set offense’s hands and open the Rock to reverse transition for Rogers, Harris, and Kri.

Outlook: This is going to be a really good series, regardless of if it goes to all three games or not. It’s going to be a heavyweight matchup. The Bandits’ home floor advantage is where I’d give them the edge in the series; they need to take care of business in game 1 and not let Toronto get comfortable. The last time the Bandits played a three-game series, Game 1 of the 2019 NLL Finals, the Bandits were stunned by the Roughnecks and played catch up the rest of the way before losing game 2, and the series, in overtime.

I’ve talked all season (and through this post) about the Bandits’ ability to go on runs. If they can go on one in the first quarter just like they did in the final game of the regular season, that would be a great start towards controlling the pace of the game and forcing Toronto to play uncomfortably. Easier said than done, but when the matchup is lining up to be this good, all we can do is sit back and watch it play out.

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert