My thoughts aren’t new: the late Isiah Robertson had the fee(eeee)ling 40 years before I did. Heck, it’s the third time in less than three calendar years that it’s been on the doorstep. Heck, the biggest percentages of simulations, bettors, NFL spectators, pundits, fans, etc. all feel the same way.

(Yes this isn’t a numbers post. This one’s all vibes. If you want me to stick to charts, here’s a video about binary logistic regression you can watch instead that would pair nicely with expected goal modeling)

Fairly enough, the Bills have earned it after chipping away year in and year out since 2017. Just like how Josh Allen showed in that Minnesota game that he might just have something that can be unlocked, and how he took a step in 2019 and on after all of the offseason mechanical overhaulings he did with Jordan Palmer. And how the team earned high expectations going into 2020 after their end to the 2019 season that included the signature wins in Dallas and Pittsburgh late in the year. Sure they fell short in Houston, but it was okay, as they had already surpassed the talent of the 2017 team that had ended the drought a couple of seasons before that.

2020 became the season to prove that they could become legit, and look what happened. Allen was an MVP candidate on the best (shush with adjusting for eras in the 90s) offense in franchise history. They had Bill Belichick slamming his phone to the booth on the sidelines in what could only be seen as the Patriots, for the first time in almost two decades, feeling hopeless in a game against the Buffalo Bills. Being one win away from the Super Bowl was still a fairy tale ending in a really tough time for a lot of us.

I was at the opener against Pittsburgh last September. When the offense was introduced, my goosebumps had goosebumps. For the first time after the magical 2020 season, 70,000+ people at once were able to see Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen play at home for the first time. A sold-out stadium was able to simultaneously thank them for last season and provide whatever remaining good vibes they could before the opening kickoff of the season, which Isaiah Mckenzie returned to the outskirts of the red zone. Listen to the crowd in that video. That’s the opening play of the marathon NFL season with the crowd noise that Taron Johnson’s pick-six against Baltimore would have had in a parallel universe where the stadium was full.

One stop from the Steelers’ defense and a field goal settling later, the regular season began with a steel speed bump. The next week, something still felt different even in a 35-0 win in Miami. Washington and Houston were very overpowered by the Bills in the next two games, but it didn’t matter to the overall outlook on the season until we saw them the following week under the lights of Kansas City. Hours of PB&J fights on Twitter later, the Bills’ 38-20 win over the Chiefs was a sign of relief that this thing can keep moving forward; that the 2020 Bills weren’t a fluke.

Of course, it wasn’t too far later that when Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville Jaguars were like a low overhanging bridge that the semi-truck (I also don’t know where all these car and road metaphors are coming from either, bear with me. Want more math? Here’s hockey talk from the last Sloan conference) Bills crashed into. Then Jonathan Taylor had his track meet, Tre White tore his ACL, the Patriots slipped and slid their way to a win in the elements, and Brady once again came out on the winning side against the Bills to drop them to 7-6. Sure they won out, but there were question marks. None of those wins came against world-moving teams and none of the wins were that exceptional or noteworthy; they simply took care of business in December and January and moved on.

And then the playoffs started and they went nuclear on the Patriots, and the path to 47-17 no longer mattered. Who cares that the Jaguars beat them? Or that the Patriots beat them in December? Or even that Allen slipped at the line of scrimmage in Tennessee? If I asked you before you started what their record was last year, would you have remembered it was 11-6? Did it matter that their Y/A dropped or that they ran the ball more in the home stretch? Not at all.

The playoffs arrived, and they flipped the switch.

And yes it didn’t end with confetti. It ended with another notch in the belt of losses with a catchy name. But they were there, in the mix, in a sport of single-game outcomes deciding the playoffs. 14 teams make the playoffs, 13 of those teams have their seasons end with disappointment, and for some of those teams, stunned silence, disbelief, and deflating disappointment, which is what a game like that Bills-Chiefs game deserves.

(Okay okay, I’ll move on now. Now more talk about Th_rt__n S_c_nds. Here’s a video of Rick)

I’m declaring that the 2022 Bills deserve the benefit of the doubt that The Switch provides. The Bills may lose tonight, and that’s okay because this season, with expectations this high, the regular season will be the formality to get them to the playoffs if <those expectations> are coming to fruition. This is especially important with such a tough schedule to start the season where even two of their three “easiest” games before November are against two teams that always play the Bills tough in Tennessee and Pittsburgh.

From the fan perspective, there are only three goals for the Bills in the next 18 weeks: maximum health, the development of the in-game relationship between Ken Dorsey and Josh Allen, and winning the division. Bonus points if the season plays out and they can claim the one seed, which will be easier said than done no matter the path.

Yes, this is a very non-mathematical take, but is there a reason to panic over the Bills’ regular season run/pass ratio when they threw all over the place in the playoffs last year? Is there a reason to panic over extra annoying punts or field goals when McDermott was more aggressive in the playoffs and higher-stakes regular season games last year? Is there a reason to panic if the Bills put up a stinker or two against teams they should beat in November or December when the schedule calms down? Not when the expectations are for more than a cup of coffee in the playoffs.

When it comes to being a fan, analysis can take the backseat this year. Take in the feelings and enjoy the ride knowing that The Switch is an arm’s length away. Save the rest for 2023.

Go Bills.

Photo Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports