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Peterka’s Breakout Campaign Off to an Excellent Start

by Anth - 0

Leading up to the 2023-24 season, a lot of folks (myself included) felt that JJ Peterka was the next Buffalo Sabre primed for a breakout campaign. Early in his second NHL season (preceded by two years of pro hockey in the DEL and AHL, respectively), the 21-year-old has been one of the team’s most impactful forwards.

With eight points in his first 12 games, he’s on pace to eclipse his 32-point output from a year ago. His five goals currently sit one shy of Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson, who lead the team with six tallies each.

His scoring clip has been immensely helpful as some of his more veteran contemporaries have struggled to produce offense early in the season. Let’s take a closer look at his underlying production to date, and examine which areas of his game have exhibited the most significant growth.

Shooting Prowess

The biggest aspect of his success to date has been a massive uptick in shooting. We’re still not far enough into the year to avoid the obligatory “sample size” disclaimer, but the results are impressive nonetheless.

Not only do the early returns suggest that Peterka is shooting more effectively, but he’s also shooting more often. Last season, he averaged 3.09 shot-attempts per game. Through 12 games this season, that rate has increased to 4.17. That’s a significant uptick.

Additionally, Peterka was one of the few Sabres forwards who converted shots below expected in 2022-23 (12 goals on 14.2 xG). Again, the sample is small, but he’s converted five goals on 2.9 xG so far in 2023-24. It’s extremely unlikely that he will continue to convert shots nearly two times more than expected, but Peterka becoming a “plus-shooter” would be a welcome development (especially when paired with an increased propensity to take shots in general).

This trend will be interesting to monitor once Jack Quinn returns to the lineup. While I’d stop well short of suggesting that Peterka’s willingness to shoot is a direct result of Quinn’s (a known shooter) absence on his line, it’s a factor to consider. This, of course, assumes that Quinn will be to Peterka’s line once he’s healthy, and that in itself, is presumptuous.

Filling the Scoring Void

Peterka’s hot start is more than just a personal achievement. As franchise headliners like Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch struggled to find their way onto the scoresheet during the team’s initial stretch of games, players like Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt helped fill the void.

Thompson and Tuch have since recovered (to varying degrees) offensively, but this speaks to a larger theme. For years, when the Sabres’ top forwards go cold for stretches, nobody has been able to step up and bridge the offensive gap. Buffalo has those depth-scoring pieces now, and Peterka is one of them.

This all speaks toward overall team improvement, but it was worth noting since Peterka has developed to the point where he can be relied upon in such a way. Without him, the Sabres’ lackluster start could have been a lot worse.

xGA Improvement via Transition

From a flyover view of the metrics, Peterka’s defensive results are showing significant improvement. The Sabres are a more effective defensive team. At the same time, he’s deployed, and his on-ice xGA/60 rate has decreased substantially in the early going (2.28 compared to 3.16 a year ago, according to Evolving Hockey).

Oftentimes, defensive improvement from an xGA standpoint can be attributed to a lot of factors like linemates and situational deployment. Peterka has spent time with a bunch of different linemates thus far (in relatively even samples), many of whom vary drastically in terms of historical proficiency on defense.

In watching Peterka, his “defensive” impact doesn’t usually come from traditional defensive plays (i.e. zone-entry denials, puck retrievals, shot-blocks, etc.). Instead, it’s how he moves himself into advantageous areas to receive outlet passes from his teammates (or, at times, recover loose pucks in space).

Other than that, Peterka doesn’t involve himself in the “defensive fray” all too often. While he isn’t afraid to engage physically, he tends to know his role as an outlet option rather than someone who needs to win puck battles in deep. Again, not a “traditional” defensive forward, but one who can positively contribute to on-ice defensive impacts all the same (assuming that player is deployed with strong puck retrieval players, which the Sabres have made a point of adding to the roster).

Closing Thoughts

As the season progresses, I’ll be focused on Peterka’s defensive game and how it translates when opposing teams start to clog the neutral zone. It’s something we’ve seen a handful of times already this year. Further, I want to see if his shooting propensity and proclivity continue and if so, to what degree.

Frankly, those are the keys to his continued success. He’s always been a dynamic skater and a dangerous asset on the rush. Those things haven’t changed, and they’re part of what made him such an effective rookie asset in 2022-23.

If he can continue to build his positional acumen on defense and keep up his shooting rate, those will be valuable additions to his overall skillset portfolio. In short, fans should watch for Peterka to continue showing signs that he’s becoming a more versatile entity.

Charts and Advanced Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images


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