At first, the title of this article was meant to be a joke to Anthony and Chad. I was hoping one day they’d come in and look at the drafts and say “That Austin…what a jokester.” However, Chad crossed a line recently and now I’m here, writing out the primer for the 2023 draft primer two months early because Sabres Twitter is pining for a trade deadline move:

If they use all 3 second round picks to pick players I’m going to go throw rocks at KBC

— Chad DeDominicis (@CMDeDominicis) February 23, 2023

Let’s get this out of the way first: I am not advocating for tanking. I honestly do not care when we pick in the first round this year. I will say this though: I do care that we pick in the first round. I also really, really, REALLY love the second round of the 2023 draft.

I know I’ve leaned more into the NHL draft, development, and scouting than the Sabres of late. I’m watching 2007-born players for CHL drafts while the rest of the hockey world is watching the wildcard race. I know this article is going to come across as extremely biased toward keeping these picks because of my investment in watching NHL draft-eligible players.

So instead of giving philosophical reasons on why we should keep the picks…let’s dive into this draft and what it could mean for the Sabres. I think there are 5 reasonable questions to ask as a casual draft fan who loves the Sabres.

Three Questions

• Who’s a reasonable target for the Sabres in the 12-20 range?
• Where’s the drop-off in talent tiers in this draft?
• If we make the playoffs by trading our 1st wouldn’t it be worth it?

These three questions are at the heart of the trade deadline debate. For the casual fan, you’re looking for an idea of what the Sabres would be sacrificing (potentially) in this area of the draft in order to acquire a known NHL talent. From there the next question I usually receive on Twitter is some sort of cost comparison between tiers of players we’d lose out in in the draft (So we don’t get Bedard but we get Benson…what’s the downside of that?!). Lastly, it’s the age-old question of instant vs. delayed gratification.

This year’s draft is loaded at the top. All of Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, and Leo Carlsson would’ve most likely been the first overall pick last year and would’ve been in contention for the first overall pick in the past three drafts as well. Add to that that Zach Benson looks to be one of the premier 200 ft. players in the draft and the top 5 should shake out with some very, very high-end players.

So let’s answer question #1: what are we missing out on? To me the biggest thing we’re missing out on is that the 12-20 range is going to have the best playmaker I’ve seen come out of the CHL in a long time in Andrew Cristall. He’s smaller and his top gear isn’t where it needs to be, but his microstat profile in my dataset is un-freaking-believable. He is a playmaking machine and is completing more dangerous pass attempts than Bedard is even attempting. You’re not drafting him for his defensive game, but if you want pure offense he’s firmly planted inside my top 6 for this year.

From there it’s a question of preference. Most of Sabres’ Twitter will discuss the defensive needs, specifically at the RHD position. Unfortunately, this is not the draft that has high-end defensive prospects. The 12-20 range will see the first of the defensive prospects come off the board with right-handed defenders Axel Sandin Pelikka and David Reinbacher being amongst the first. Sandin Pelikka is a dynamic, offensive-minded defenseman out of Sweden.

He’s a bit undersized (standing 5’11) but his deception ability at the offensive blue line, puck-carrying skill, and utilization of space to create passing lanes and use deceptive techniques are all high-end. An added step in his both his north/south and lateral speed would propel him into the top 10 stratosphere, but to be able to carve out a role in the SHL as a draft-eligible defenseman is impressive.

Reinbacher will probably adhere to the fanbase a bit more. He’d be a good complimentary player to the uber-offensive LHD we have already as he’s not puck dominant nor is his offensive game predicated upon activation. The gap control for a defensive-minded defenseman has to get better if he’s going to project to the top 4, but his overall skillset is going to be desirable for a team looking to find a player with a bit of offensive flair to go with a conservative mindset to offset an aggressive offensive defenseman.

If we go LHD then it opens the door to two Russian defenders who I’ve really liked this past year Mikhail Gulyayev and Dmitri Simashev. Gulyayev is a smaller, offensive-leaning defender who is among the most fun with the puck on his stick in this entire draft class. Simashev is a giant, 6’4 defenseman who has shown flashes of deceptive playmaking and great pace, and four-way mobility.

Then you have two of the safer options in this range Dalibor Dvorsky and Eduard Sale. Both players are most likely wingers, and both play at a pretty low pace without exceptional skill levels, but both are very good at off-puck movement and think the game well produce against men in their draft-eligible seasons. With longer development overseas they should get a bit faster and develop into middle-of-the-lineup players.

If we miss out on Cristall when we could’ve had a chance at him I think it’s a huge loss. I think the defenders would be nice to have, and if we get a longer-term contract instead of Sale/Dvorsky I’m not upset by it.

Answer to Question 2: My draft tiers:

Tier 1: Connor Bedard Tier:

1. Connor Bedard

Tier 2: Elite, Game-breaking Talent

2.) Adam Fantilli

3.) Leo Carlsson

4.) Matvei Michkov

5.) Zach Benson

6.) Andrew Cristall

Tier 3: High Potential, Possible Top 6/4 players

7.) Oliver Moore

8.) Will Smith

9.) Gavin Brindley*

10.) Axel Sandin Pellikka

11.) Ryan Leonard

12.) Jayden Perron*

13.) Mikhail Gulyayev

14.) Dimitri Simashev

15.) Nate Danielson

16.) Riley Heidt

17.) Quentin Musty

*I will add the caveat that both Brindley and Perron are rarely inside the top 25 of people’s rankings and most likely are going to be second picks.

Tier 4: Middle Six Forwards, Top 4 Defenders, Potential 1a/1b goalies

Rankings 18-54

Question 3: Perhaps to some, not to me.

I don’t really care if we make the playoffs. I care about if we win a Stanley Cup. We’re not a piece or two away from a Stanley Cup. After this offseason, we should be able to make runs at players at deadlines to make a difference in the playoffs. But we’re 2-3 defenders away, 2-3 forwards, and a starting goalie who can get hot for 20 games away from being in contention. Closer than we’ve been in years…but still too far away to mortgage anything in our future for the opportunity to play Carolina or Boston in the first round.

We love the second round

First off, let’s acknowledge the data that shows that once we get past the first round of the NHL draft it becomes a giant crapshoot. The article is coming up on three years old, but Jokke does work in the NHL now with the Hurricanes in a scouting capacity so I do feel there’s credibility behind his work: https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

There’s a lot to unpack there but you can see that once you get past pick 25 the probability to play >99 games in the NHL becomes stable and looks to be almost like playing the lottery of which player will land in the 35% that will play 100 games in the NHL.

In my own analysis of the NHL draft since 2010 I’ve found that players that outperform their draft capital or make the NHL outside of round 1 often fall into one of five categories:

1.) They’re undersized (<5’11 in height)

2.) They’re European

3.) They’re a winger

4.) They’re a D+1 playing defense in a men’s league (SHL/KHL/Liiga/etc)

5.) Everything checks out but they’ve been labeled as having a skating issue/poor pace

That being said, let’s go through some of my favorite players in this upcoming NHL draft, where I have them ranked, and where Bob McKenzie has them ranked:

Gavin Brindley, C/W, University of Michigan (my rank: 7th…McKenzie rank: 43)

Brindley falls into the undersized and position (winger) complex above. He’s listed at 5’9 at Michigan but it won’t surprise me if he comes in at 5’8. However, there is nothing Brindley can’t do. A fantastic skater who plays with an edge: Brindley is hard on pucks as a defender and a fantastic forechecker. He has skill for days and is the primary puck carrier for Michigan when he’s on a line. He’s at 47% transition involvement despite games where he’s played on a line with the likes of Fantilli, McGroarty, Nazar, and Jackson Hallum. He is successful in 80% of his entries. He is sending 16% of his passes to dangerous areas of the ice and has shot to generate statistics very similar to Fantilli 5v5.

He’s just 5’9. Get over that fact and you have one of the best value picks in this entire draft. People are selling his versatility up and down the line-up. I’m telling you that you have a top potential top 4 scoring forward who can play in your top 6 who could be available in the second round.

Jayden Perron, W, USHL Chicago Steele (my rank: 13th…McKenzie Rank: 50)

Another player falling into the size and position category. Jayden Perron is the best playmaker in the USHL. He sends over 30% of his passes to dangerous areas of the ice. He is involved in over 46% of his team’s offensive transitions when he’s on the ice and is successful on 81% of them. He has the skill for days, some of the best passing and playmaking vision in the entire class, and is great as an F3 forechecker even if he lacks the physicality that Brindley has on the boards. Currently riding a heater with 16 points in his last 10 games and 51pts in 47 games on the season. The UND commit has all the talent to be in the top 6 in an NHL lineup but will most likely be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Gracyn Sawchyn, W/C, WHL Seattle Thunderbirds (my rank: 22…McKenzie Rank: 80)

Another one of these players whose size (5’11) plays a part into his evaluation but also his skating which has been a knock on him most of this year. However, if you watched the CHL Top Prospects game I don’t know how you don’t come out of that game utterly impressed with Sawchyn and wondering why more people aren’t talking about him. He’s been firmly planted inside my top 25 all year due to his amazing vision, one-touch passing, and small-area skill. Couple that with a motor that is relentless in puck pursuit and you end up with a recipe for being one of my favorite players similar to Brindley in this entire draft. As he fills out and lengthens his stride I think the speed comes, and from there you just scratching the surface of what I think Sawchyn could become. He is fighting for a role on this super-star Seattle team and has earned everything given to him. Pound the table if he’s available in the second round, Kevyn Adams. Pound it.

**Two Bonus 2nd Rounders in case Ryan Johnson doesn’t sign and/or we acquire more 2nd round picks**

William Whitelaw, C, USHL Youngstown Phantoms (my rank: 25…McKenzie rank: 65)

Beau Akey, RHD, OHL Barrie Colts (my rank: 23…McKenzie rank: 55)

Whitelaw is a small player (5’8) who most likely projects to the wing. Beau Akey is an anomaly that I think gets corrected before the draft but is currently sitting outside the first round from most draft outlets, but I don’t think should.

Whitelaw is one of the best skating and most skilled forwards in the entire draft class. There really aren’t many players that have his combination of evasiveness and jaw-dropping skill, however, he hasn’t put it together well yet. He’s still taking too many low-danger shots (though it’s getting better) and he’s got to penetrate deeper into the offensive zone off his initial rushes. However, even with these more significant issues, he’s still producing well on a microstat level and still producing well in the USHL. Give him a few years to really begin using his teammates in college and you have one of the most interesting draft picks in the entire class.

Beau Akey should be ranked higher by more people in my opinion. He doesn’t fall into any of the categories listed above. He’s a plus skater with great four-way mobility. He’s deceptive and one of the best-passing defensemen in my entire data set. He utilizes space very well in the offensive zone. His only blemish is he makes some weird decisions when keeping a gap on the defensive blue line, and I’d like to see him join more rushes. But for a guy with great microstats, 42 points in 55 games, and no physical limitations…it seems like a no-brainer to run to the podium and scoop him up in the second.

Other players with first-round grades who aren’t in McKenzie’s top 32:

Tanner Moldendyck, LHD, WHL

Bradley Nadeau, LW/RW, BCHL

Dimitri Simashev, LHD, MHL

Luca Pinelli, LW/C, OHL

Luca Cagnoni, LHD, WHL

The Goalies

I’m the biggest Devon Levi truther there is. I tried to put him at #2 on our top prospects podcast at xB this summer. That being said: with the expected loss of Portillo and who knows what will happen in RFA with UPL I think this is a good goalie draft to snag one in the fourth/fifth round. If you want to use one of our second-round picks I’d target Michael Hrabel, Trey Augustine, or Carson Bjarnsson.

I like to target later-round goalies because it’s the best use of draft capital, so I’m looking for us to select one of these three goalies: Scott Ratzloff, Jacob Fowler, or Adam Gajan.

We need to build up the goalie pipeline and this position is, by far, the longest road to get to the NHL.

Final thoughts

I think the 2023 draft is going to be a deep one. Perhaps not as deep as 2020, but I do think it has a lot of very interesting players. Right now there are about 67 players I’m interested in drafting who I think have tools/data that warrant an NHL selection and I’d feel comfortable saying they stand a decent chance to play in the NHL. That’s better than last year at this time when I look at my notes where I had 47 players. I ended 2020 with something like 85 players I loved. I don’t think I’ll get above 70 this year.

Four draft picks in the top 64 is a lot of capital. We’d be wise to use it this year and then start selling our future capital to make this team better.

Photo Credit: Pär Bäckström/ Frilans