As the 2020-21 regular season comes to a close, the Buffalo Sabres face a critical offseason on the horizon. On top of upgrading the current lineup, Kevyn Adams will have to consider expansion draft implications with the introduction of the Seattle Kraken as the league’s 32nd franchise.

Given how the Sabres’ roster is currently constructed, there is a good chance that the front office will elect to go with an 7-3-1 protection approach (i.e. seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goaltender). If that’s the case, there is an interesting conversation to be had regarding which forwards should comprise the eight available spots.

Let’s start with the obvious selections. Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, and Jeff Skinner (NMC) are all locks. Casey Mittelstadt and Anders Bjork are probably close to “lock” territory as well. Mittelstadt is in the middle of a breakout season as a 23-year-old, and the team just targeted Bjork as a key piece of the deal that sent Taylor Hall to the Boston Bruins.

That leaves us with one available forward spot. Assuming the Sabres elect to go with an 7-3-1 approach, it would leave them with an interesting decision to make between Rasmus Asplund and Tage Thompson. There are arguments to be made for both players. For that reason, I decided to play devil’s advocate and put together short campaigns for both options and then reach a final verdict. So, without further ado, let’s dive into the numbers.

A Case for Asplund

We’ll start with Asplund, a player who has done a nice job of silencing doubters (myself included) this season. After floundering during a 29-game sample with the big club in 2019-20, at 23 years old, his prospects as a long-term NHL asset were dwindling.

Following a three-game stint with the Rochester Amerks to start the 2020-21 campaign, Asplund received another chance to show what he could do at the next level. He seized the opportunity and has since cemented himself as a roster regular. While his eight points in 22 games don’t exactly jump off the page, his impacts as a high-energy forechecking forward provide a great deal of value.

Though Asplund has been regarded throughout his development as a “defensive forward”, it’s his on-ice offensive impacts that have stood out the most this season. In fact, he currently leads the team with an xGF/60 rate of 2.52. Defensively, he’s closer to the middle-of-the pack, ranking ninth among Sabres forwards with an xGA/60 rate of 2.62.

At face value, Asplund’s overall xG percentage of 48.89 doesn’t look very good. Relatively speaking, however, it represents a pretty strong number considering his respective QoT and QoC marks to this point. From a quality-of-teammate standpoint, only three Sabres forwards have had less quality to work with this season.

While his QoC ranking is below-average among his blue-and-gold contemporaries, it still doesn’t offset the level of player he’s had to work alongside. For this reason, his weighted RAPM numbers look a lot more favorable than his raw xGF mark might indicate. His ability to draw penalties (while taking very few of his own) also needs to be viewed as a significant positive factor.

Right now, Asplund’s cap hit holds an AAV rate of $845,000. That said, he is set to become a restricted free-agent this summer, and will assuredly command a raise. For comparison sake, the Sabres are less than a year removed from handing Thompson a three-year, $1.6 million AAV after proving almost nothing at the NHL level. Despite Buffalo setting something of a dangerous precedent there, Asplund will likely seek something similar.

A Case for Thompson

In the red corner (because why not), standing at 6ft-6in tall, hailing from Pangea we have a human dinosaur in Tage Thompson. Alright, he was born in 1997, not during the Cretaceous Period, but the kid is gigantic.

The only problem is that there are instances (a lot of them in fact) where his frame looks to be more of a detriment than a blessing. That being said, the 23-year-old winger has shown flashes of offensive prowess, headlined by what has the potential to be a lethal shot.

From a raw point production standpoint, Thompson’s 10 points in 32 games translate to about 26 points over a full season. That total would pace-out at nearly double what he produced in his first season with the Sabres in 2018-19 (he was injured for most of 2019-20, appearing in just one NHL game).

For Thompson’s current price tag, 25-30 points is pretty fair production. What’s also interesting is that, despite their very different styles as players, Thompson and Asplund share very similar on-ice shot quality metrics (though Asplund’s numbers are a little better).

While there is a gap between their respective offensive zone-deployment rates (Asplund at 38.62% and Thompson at 45.26%) they are both defensively-tilted. That mark for Thompson is actually pretty consistent with the OzS rate he experienced in 2018-19, which is an odd tactical approach since the weakest parts of his game are on defense and in transition.

As far as relative impacts go, Thompson’s QoC difficulty ranks fifth among Sabres forwards. His QoT conversely is the seventh-strongest on the team, so it washes out to a certain degree. Due to the fact that teammate quality weighs a bit more heavily in terms of RAPM metrics, the fact that Asplund has had a less talented slate of linemates makes his RAPM chart more attractive despite relatively comparable on-ice shot-quality differentials.

For a player that missed virtually a entire year of development last season, Thompson has recovered nicely and while still flawed, is a better player than he was when he first arrived in Western New York. If his offensive production this season is a sign of incremental growth, perhaps the Sabres brass feel that he can be sheltered and provide additional offensive impact on a team that sorely needs it.

Final Verdict

Had I been asked to choose between these two players a year ago, I would have probably picked Thompson based strictly on offensive upside. The reason why my answer is different now has everything to do with skillset balance.

While their respective underlying metrics are closer than I initially thought, Asplund has had a more impressive 2020-21 campaign. A year ago, I’d have anticipated pedestrian production from him, particularly on offense. The most surprising part of what he’s done in 2020-21 has nothing to do with what he can do as a defensive forward, and everything to do with the forechecking upside that was previously absent from his game.

The fact that he and Thompson have actually spent a lot of time on the same line, and Asplund has produced more individual offense in said sample is also telling.

A bet on Thompson in this hypothetical scenario would require a great deal of confidence that at 23 years old, he’s just now scratching the surface of his offensive potential. Defensively, he’s still a net-negative asset (by a lot) and there is no real reason to believe that his offensive production will ever be great enough to offset everything he gives back.

At the end of the day, we have a player who needs to be sheltered versus a player who has shown a lot of previously unseen lineup versatility. Given the success Asplund has experienced on the de facto second line flanking Casey Mittelstadt, his newfound forechecking ability has added a degree of utility for a player whose ceiling appeared to be that of a defensively competent fourth-liner.

Had Thompson produced more impressive metrics alongside Jack Eichel earlier in the season, perhaps my mind could be changed about his versatility, but the fact that he’s produced similar underlying numbers whether he’s been on the first line or fourth is troubling. It’s likely a sign that the offensive potential we saw in him as a prospect doesn’t have a very high ceiling after all.

In short – I’ll take the sure bet without any glaring flaws in game versus a player who is only positively impactful when he’s scoring goals (which isn’t very often).

Advanced Metrics and RAPM Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

On-Ice Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

Player Cards courtesy of JFresh Hockey

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images