Despite only posting two points in his first eight games for the Buffalo Sabres this season, rookie forward Jack Quinn is the team’s current xGF leader. This may come as a surprise to those who have equated his point production (one goal and one assist so far) to a slow acclimation to the NHL level.

Of the 345 NHL forwards to appear in at least five games so far this season, Quinn ranks 38^th with an xGF rate of 60.22%. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s produced such impressive underlying metrics despite spending the majority of his ice time with Casey Mittelstadt (who ranks dead-last among Sabres forwards with an xGF rate of 39.53%).

According to Natural Stat Trick, Mittelstadt’s xGF rate alongside Quinn is 67.02% to this point. Sans Quinn however, Mittelstadt’s rate plummets down to 31.42%. Please note that the sample size here is small, and certainly contributes to the dramatic statistical gap here.

Still, it’s interesting to see Quinn provide such a positive linemate impact in the early going. Rather than being dragged down alongside struggling forwards, he appears to be elevating them. Victor Olofsson (Quinn’s second-most common linemate) has experienced a similar xGF bump from Quinn’s presence (a 34.52% WOWY delta per NST).

So, why is this happening? What about Quinn’s presence helping boost two players who have received a great deal of fan criticism for their play? Sure, the Quinn-Mittelstadt-Olofsson line holds a pretty favorable OZS rate of 70.59% so far, but there’s a lot more to the story here.

To get a better understanding of how Quinn’s skillset has proven so beneficial to his most common linemates (and other forwards with whom he’s appeared), let’s dive into the film and identify some of his more subtle contributions which may have gone unrecognized.

Counter-Rush Success

When honing in on the details of his shifts, one begins to understand just how much of a transition maven Quinn has become. That might sound redundant alongside players like Mittelstadt and Olofsson, both of whom have solid offensive transition metrics in their own right, but it works.

As three players who thrive in an aggressive counter-rush environment, they seem to have an inherent positional understanding. All three players can move with a degree of speed in transition, and their most effective sequences occur when forcing opposing defenders back on their heels.

There are two particular aspects of the above clip I want to point out. By my eye, Quinn is one of the more effective Sabres forwards at entering the offensive zone with control. Upon receiving the outlet pass from his defender, Olofsson immediately distributes the puck to a streaking Quinn so he can enter the zone with speed.

Once Quinn crosses into the offensive zone, Olofsson waits behind him. I imagine he does this because Quinn is headed right into a trio of Chicago Blackhawks defenders. Quinn wisely chooses to pass the puck back to Olofsson and establish the offensive cycle.

This brings us to the second point of the clip. In addition to their effective counter-rush abilities, the Quinn-Mittelstadt-Olofsson line does a nice job of establishing the cycle upon entering the offensive zone. In this instance, we see both aspects of their style as a line on display.

Sans Quinn, Mittelstadt, and Olofsson have historically struggled to maintain offensive zone pressure. This clip is a good example of how Quinn’s presence has helped in that regard. Despite his reputation as an offensive skill player with a blistering shot, Quinn is an effective physical presence on offense.

He’s also an extremely mobile entity who moves around the zone swiftly and intelligently. About 16 seconds into the clip, Quinn loses his balance as he positions himself to potentially capitalize on a rebound. The shot goes wide, but he doesn’t quit on the play.

Instead, he engages with Jack Johnson, thwarting the veteran blueliner’s clearance attempt and subsequently prolonging the Sabres’ offensive cycle. It’s a subtle but important skill set to complement players like Mittelstadt and Olofsson, who are less likely to operate in the “dirty areas” of the ice. It’s something for which Quinn doesn’t get enough credit.

It’s also one of many reasons the two of them have experienced historical success alongside Rasmus Asplund, who serves a similar purpose when deployed with Mittelstadt and Olofsson (speaking strictly of his role in the offensive zone).

Without focusing too much on Quinn’s role in the offensive cycle (something we’ll dive into a bit more in the next section), let’s shift our focus back to Quinn’s speed and positional awareness in transition.

In this next clip, the 21-year-old’s speed and tenacity in the neutral zone are on full display again. Casey Fitzgerald sends a bit of a sloppy exit pass to Olofsson at center ice. The puck bounces off his stick and winds up in a prime position for Detroit Red Wings’ forward, Elmer Soderblom to regain offensive possession with speed coming back.

As you’ll notice, Quinn is still in the Sabres’ defensive zone as a safety-valve option for Fitzgerald. Instead, the Buffalo defender elects to try the long pass to Olofsson. Quinn immediately recognizes that the pass was not easily received, and attacks Soderblom with an impressive burst of speed.

Before Soderblom knows what hit him, Quinn steals the puck right back and puts the Red Wings defenders on their heels as he and Olofsson enter the zone together. While the sequence doesn’t result in a goal, Quinn not only helped his team avoid a dangerous situation, but he turned it into a scoring chance.

Quinn’s penchant for coming out of nowhere to disrupt potentially dangerous plays is something I noticed more than once. Late in the third period of the aforementioned contest against the Blackhawks, Vinnie Hinostroza sends a blind pass to the middle of the ice on his own end.

From out of frame, Quinn mitigates the potential danger by slicing back into the defensive zone to regain control of the puck and commissions the zone exit himself. What happens next is subtle, but important.

Quinn exits the zone with control, sending the puck back to Hinostroza on the right side of the neutral zone. At this point, Quinn could use his speed to scream back into the play, but he takes his foot off the gas in the most subtle way.

In slowing down just a little bit, he positions himself in a perfect window to receive the puck back from Hinostroza. He then enters the offensive zone with control and fires a shot that appears to get stuck in Arvid Soderblom’s mask.

Movement in the Offensive Cycle

As a team, the Sabres predicate their offensive approach on a quick, counter-rush style of attack. It’s part of the reason they’re such a “high event” team in general. One thing I noticed, however, is that when Quinn’s on the ice, the Sabres’ offensive transition has a higher propensity to turn into an established and prolonged offensive cycle.

The first clip I posted in the last section (which resulted in an offensive possession that lasted about 35 seconds) is one example of this. Despite not lasting quite as long, this next clip is perhaps even more representative of what I’m referring to.

Last season, Chad DeDominicis and I spoke at length on the Expected Buffalo Podcast about how Asplund tended to “assume centerman duties” while playing with Mittelstadt (even though Mittelstadt was the one taking the faceoffs). In terms of his role in the offensive cycle, Quinn has served in a somewhat similar fashion when deployed on Mittelstadt’s line.

Pay attention to Quinn’s movement relative to Mittelstadt. Throughout the sequence, there isn’t a part of the ice that Quinn doesn’t touch. On several occasions, his movement and positioning either force the Montreal Canadiens’ defenders to adjust their positioning or just lose him completely.

Conversely, Mittelstadt stays stapled to the right-wing boards. That’s not a shot at him, because it appears to be by design. Quinn’s ability to shift his direction with speed and precision is something Mittelstadt just doesn’t possess. In the interest of keeping the cycle alive, he assumes something of a centerman’s role, while Mittelstadt acts as the right-winger.

It’s another subtle thing that could go unnoticed in the waning minutes of a tie game, but it’s interesting at the very least.

Defensive Metrics

One thing that jumps out in Quinn’s metrics is his xGA numbers. Despite playing primarily alongside two forwards who have historically struggled defensively, Quinn’s xGA/60 rate of 1.60 is currently the best on the team. Again, I’ll stress sample size as a key factor here.

Before this exercise, I wondered if Quinn’s couple of games alongside Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo (two historically strong xGA players) were perhaps boosting his metrics in this regard. The opposite turned out to be true, as the Quinn-Girgensons-Okposo trio got shelled as a unit, to the tune of a 27.14% xGF rate.

So, one of my primary objectives was to determine why Quinn struggled so fantastically alongside two players with historically strong underlying results (alongside a myriad of different linemates to boot). The answer ended up being relatively straightforward.

In many cases, sheltering a young, offensively gifted forward by playing him on a line with a defensively competent veteran is a good idea. In focusing on their shifts as a line, however, it appears that deploying Quinn with both Okposo and Girgensons was something of a redundant overcorrection.

As you’ve noticed in the previous clips, Quinn’s offensive impact is somewhat predicated on having linemates who exhibit patience and positional understanding (some might refer to this as “chemistry”). Okposo and Girgensons aren’t strong transition players. They’re aggressive forecheckers who do their best work as puck retrievers on offense.

The above clip is a good example of how Girgensons and Okposo lacked positional anticipation of where Quinn would look for their support upon entering the zone. Initially, Girgensons does a nice job of finding Quinn in space to facilitate a clean zone exit.

In turn, Quinn does a great job flipping the ice with speed and entering the zone with control of the puck (as he tends to do). The sequence falls apart from there, however.

Quinn turns his body position, hoping to find one of his linemates coming up behind him with speed. He does find this to some extent, but neither Girgensons nor Okposo did anything to get themselves in an open position to receive a pass. Instead, they both seem to crash the net and drive head-first into a gaggle of Vancouver Canucks back checkers.

By my assessment, Quinn’s zone entry was just a little too fast for his linemates. If he made that turn of his body just a split second later, he may have been able to hit Okposo as the veteran winger crashed the net. Instead, the play is broken, Girgensons falls, and the Canucks flip the ice with relative ease.

Unlike the rest of the Sabres’ forwards, Girgensons and Okposo have found the most offensive success in a dump-and-chase environment. That proclivity serves in stark contrast to Quinn’s style of play, contributing to their struggles as a group.

It’s a two-fold issue. Not only did most of their counter-rushes end up disjointed (rarely resulting in sustained offensive puck possession), but Okposo and Girgensons’ over-commitment to crashing in deep when deployed with Quinn, left their opponents with open counter-rush lanes of their own (forcing the Sabres’ defensemen back on their heels, an area where they have largely struggled this year).

In watching them a bit more closely, it’s easy to see why this line hasn’t worked. Kudos to Granato for abandoning that experiment after just a few games. Conversely, the prolonged offensive zone cycles I’ve cited when Quinn plays alongside Mittelstadt and Olofsson have caused a positive xGA impact (since they operate most of their shift in the offensive zone with established pressure), hence his current RAPM results (pictured above).

Power-Play Prowess

Due to the sample being so small, I don’t want to place too much focus on this, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention it. Since Quinn’s inclusion as a member of the Sabres’ top power-play unit, the team’s success rate with the man advantage has increased significantly.

We’ve established how well Quinn positions himself in the offensive cycle at even strength, and that ability has translated nicely to the power play. On the year, his presence has resulted in an xGF increase of about 37% so far.

We’ll see if that continues, but it’s promising. Quinn is proving that he’s capable of being more than just an “Olofsson-lite”, firing one-timers from the right dot. For a team that has struggled mightily to establish consistency on the man-advantage since Bob Woods left the organization, it’s an inspiring development.

Closing Thoughts

Eventually, the “little things” Quinn does will translate to more appearances on the score sheet. His early performance reminds me a bit of Dylan Cozens’, not so much in terms of skillset (though they do share some player traits), but trajectory.

As an efficient transition forward, the points came slowly for Cozens early in his rookie campaign. The same is occurring with Quinn. Eventually, and inevitably, when a player continues to produce strong offensive microstats as a rookie, the points will come.

It’s too early in the season to pull any charts on this, but based on my observations, Quinn might carry the highest zone-entry success rate on the Sabres roster so far this season. Once he gains a bit more confidence and perhaps receives an opportunity to play with some more complimentary, less redundant linemates, the base statistical results will help shine a light on just how effective he’s been.

In short, don’t fret over point totals. Quinn’s transition to the NHL level has been extremely successful thus far regardless.

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Hockeyviz and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports