Ten years ago Tuesday, the Buffalo Sabres snapped a three-game win streak with a 4-1 win over the Atlanta Thrashers. It was their first of 16 wins in their last 24 games: a 16-4-4 stretch to finish with 96 points that was good enough for the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference.

Going into this game, the Sabres were 27-25-6 through 58 games with 60 points, which is an 84 point pace, so the stretch to end the season that started ten years ago today is a good line of demarcation for the story of the 2010-11 Sabres. 

For palate-cleanser purposes amidst a tough stretch for the current version of the Buffalo Sabres with 5 games in 7 days with way too much of the New York Islanders sprinkled in, let’s look back at the last Sabres team to make the playoffs and see what contributed to their 24 game tear to make the playoffs. Not to look for a right answer or anything like that, but just out of curiosity, as a treat on a day off.

Full Season Context

As a whole, the 2010-11 Sabres hovered around a league average defense with an above average 5v5 offense and an even more stellar powerplay, highlighted by heavy shot traffic in front of the net (Thanks, Thomas Vanek).

In league context, their league-average defense and above-average offense at 5v5 fit in with other teams with similar talent and a similar finish to them. Fundamentally, it’s reasonable that a slightly above-average team would finish tied for the 14th best record in the NHL – one spot above the median finish of 15th or 16th.

Looking at the rolling goal differential (also via Moneypuck) for the Sabres, that final dip in the middle of February reached its low point following their February 20th loss to Washington, distinctly showing the start of the string of wins and close losses that brought them to the playoffs.

The string of good hockey at 5v5 started earlier than February 23rd, surpassing a negative goal differential that they didn’t drop back to the rest of the season after beating the Maple Leafs on February 5. There was a string of four straight games losing the 5v5 scoring in March that also reveals itself here.

Now to compare this to expected goals for the season, the Sabres were actually above expectation for the majority of the season, suggesting some misfortune in November and December at 5v5 that eventually corrected itself by January and improved in by March. More on that last stretch of seven games or so where they appear to have held on for dear life coming up later.

First 58 Games vs Final 24 Games

	CF Total	CA Total	CF Per Game	CA Per Game	CF%
First 58 Games	2502	2428	43.1	41.9	50.75
Last 24 Games	1094	1108	45.6	46.2	49.68
Full Season	3596	3536	43.9	43.1	50.42

	xGF Total	xGA Total	xGF Per Game	xGA Per Game	xGF%
First 58 Games	103.44	92.68	1.78	1.6	52.74
Last 24 Games	45.47	43.88	1.89	1.83	50.89
Full Season	148.92	136.56	1.82	1.67	52.16

	GF Total	GA Total	GF Per Game	GA Per Game	GF%
First 58 Games	106	101	1.8	1.7	51.21
Last 24 Games	56	42	2.3	1.8	57.14
Full Season	162	143	2	1.7	53.11

	SH%	SV%	PDO
First 58 Games	7.49%	92.38%	0.999
Last 24 Games	8.76%	92.68%	1.014
Full Season	7.88%	92.47%	1.004

At 5v5, shot attempt differential hovered around the same even split the whole season, while their expected goal differential was closer to 50% in the final 24 games. Part of the Sabres’ ability to win two-thirds of those final 24 games appears to be reflected by the expected goal differential at 5v5 decreasing while the actual goal differential at 5v5 was about 6% higher than in the first 58 games while maintaining a fairly neutral PDO for the whole season. This is in part from the increase in goals per game from 1.8 to 2.3, scoring about 11 5v5 goals more than expected in the final 24 games while goals allowed remained consistent during this time as the defense and goaltending performed consistently to the expectation from the shots they allowed.

Onto The Games

Find the Natural Stat Trick game reports from every game for the Sabres in 2010-11 here

February 23 – March 6

The first seven games of the 24 game stretch were ultimately the driver to put them over the edge from out of the mix to have a legitimate shot of making the top 8. A seven-game point streak with four regulation wins an overtime win, and a shootout and an overtime loss. Definitely a strong stretch for the Sabres, who added Brad Boyes to start March.

Game	xGF%	CF%	PDO
2011-02-23 – Thrashers 1, Sabres 4	57.41	51.92	1.121
2011-02-25 – Senators 2, Sabres 4	69.58	61.05	1.011
2011-02-26 – Red Wings 3, Sabres 2 – SO	45.41	48.6	1.074
2011-03-01 – Sabres 3, Rangers 2	37.4	48.61	1.003
2011-03-03 – Sabres 2, Hurricanes 3 – OT	46.21	52.08	0.978
2011-03-05 – Sabres 5, Flyers 3	59.67	41.05	1.108
2011-03-06 – Sabres 3, Wild 2 – OT	56.87	51.11	1.027

March 8 – March 26

More solid results during this stretch. In 7 of the 10 games, the Sabres won the 5v5 expected goal battle and won the corsi differential in 6 of the 10 games, even overcoming a bunch of tough PDO games, which is why I included to shooting and save percentages for this stretch for more context. 6-3-1 was the Sabres record in this 10 game stretch, still keeping pace headed into the final 7 games.

Game	xGF%	CF%	PDO	SH%	SV%
2011-03-08 – Sabres 1, Penguins 3	54.68	58.11	0.886	4.35	84.21
2011-03-10 – Sabres 4, Bruins 3 – OT	56.67	51.32	0.901	3.7	86.36
2011-03-12 – Sabres 3, Maple Leafs 4	58.49	53.23	0.89	5	84
2011-03-13 – Senators 4, Sabres 6	44.56	44.79	1.072	17.24	90
2011-03-15 – Hurricanes 1, Sabres 0	53.22	51.04	0.962	0	96.15
2011-03-19 – Thrashers 2, Sabres 8	55.22	38.96	1.214	29.41	92
2011-03-20 – Predators 4, Sabres 3 – OT	48.24	50.45	0.934	5.88	87.5
2011-03-22 – Sabres 2, Canadiens 0	55.56	51.85	1.063	6.25	100
2011-03-25 – Panthers 2, Sabres 4	62.83	48.15	1	11.11	88.89
2011-03-26 – Devils 0, Sabres 2	46.7	48.35	1.077	7.69	100

March 29 – April 9 – Please Fasten Your Seat Belts

The Sabres lost to Toronto on March 29 in a game that stands out because it was the last time we saw Ryan Miller in game action until April 8 after suffering an upper-body injury. After Jhonas Enroth pitched a 23 save shutout against the Rangers on March 30, the Sabres lost the 5v5 expected goal and corsi differentials in each of their final 5 games. They also didn’t surrender a standings point in any of those games, going 4-0-1, making their record 5-1-1 in the final 7 games. Despite being dominated at season’s end by their opponents, the Buffalo Sabres were headed to the playoffs for the second straight season.

Game	xGF%	CF%	PDO
2011-03-29 – Sabres 3, Maple Leafs 4	43.65	54.64	0.957
2011-03-30 – Rangers 0, Sabres 1	53.89	50	1
2011-04-02 – Sabres 4, Capitals 5 – OT	41.21	48.28	1.022
2011-04-03 – Sabres 2, Hurricanes 1 – OT	49.57	45.78	1.01
2011-04-05 – Lightning 2, Sabres 4	41.17	48.72	1.067
2011-04-08 – Flyers 3, Sabres 4 – OT	43.2	46.07	1.032
2011-04-09 – Sabres 5, Blue Jackets 4	29.04	45.78	0.995

That final stretch shows up here in the final plots, which show goals for, goals against, and goal differential above expectation at 5v5.

These season-end numbers show a fairly “lucky” Sabres team that made the playoffs, but aside from the final games of the season, the 24 game stretch that started on February 23 was filled with consistently strong hockey that propelled the Sabres into the playoffs. A little bit of luck got them to the finish line.

That’s all I have for now. If you want to talk more about hanging on for dear life and luck more, look no further than the Flyers series. Ryan Miller stole games 1 and 4 for the Sabres. As I said, this wasn’t about any point. I was just curious and didn’t have the same analytics access in 2011 when I was in eighth grade (Sorry Anthony).

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Gerry Broome