Last night was one to remember for Dustin Tokarski. The 32-year-old put together an unbelievable performance in the third period against the Pittsburgh Penguins to preserve a 2-1 victory for the Buffalo Sabres.

Throughout the season they’ve received outstanding goalkeeping from Craig Anderson and Tokarski. Another sign that trying to predict goaltending is difficult to do in the NHL. They were projected by many (including myself) to have the worst goaltending tandem in the league. Through 15 games they’re league average in most goalie statistics.

The Numbers

After last night, Dustin Tokarski ranks 16th in all situations in Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected (GSAx) model among goaltenders to play at least 200 minutes this season. At 5 on 5, he ranks 17th in the twins’ model.

You may have been expecting better numbers and prettier-looking charts for Tokarski. However, getting league average performance between the pipes hasn’t happened for the Sabres in a long time. Especially when you consider the player doing it didn’t appear in an NHL game since 2016 before last season.

Anderson’s numbers look a little worse overall because of how that west coast trip wrapped up before his injury. He ranks 26th in all situations in GSAx with a -0.96 rating. At 5 on 5, his numbers look rough as he ranks 42nd in the EH’s model.

You’ll see in the chart above that the penalty kill has been the area of the game that Anderson has come up big for the Sabres this season.

Defense

While the goaltenders have performed above expectation this season, the impact that team defense has played can’t be overlooked. The Sabres enter tonight’s games as a top 15 shot suppression team. They rank ninth in shot attempts against at 5 on 5 (score and venue adjusted) per 60 minutes and 11th shot quality against (xGA/60), according to Evolving Hockey. There are nights that this team looks like they’re giving up a lot, but they’re not. Last night was a good example of this. At 5 on 5, the Sabres kept the Penguins to the outside for the most part. They only gave up 1.77 expected goals against, which is relatively low.

In the other situations, well that wasn’t so pretty last night.

The biggest improvement in their defensive game has been their penalty kill. The Sabres gave up a lot of quality chances against while shorthanded the last two years under Ralph Krueger. In the twins’ model, they ranked 24th in expected goals against per 60 minutes in the 2019-20 season and were ranked 27th last year. This season, they’re ranked 14th.

You can see in Micah McCurdy’s heat map above how they’ve managed to drastically reduce the opportunities that they’re giving up to their opponents while shorthanded. For reference, below is the chart from their penalty kill last season.

It’s a perfect storm right now. The goaltenders are up to the task when they’re being called upon and Don Granato has his team playing good defensive hockey that doesn’t come at the expense of their offense. This team is fascinating to follow even though they may not put up a lot of wins. We’ll see how sustainable this perfect storm is as the season goes along.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Micah McCurdy

Photo Credit: Bruce Bennett Getty Images