The Buffalo Sabres are one Zach Benson appearance away from reaching his nine-game limit before a year is burned off his ELC. In eight games this season, the 18-year-old has acquitted himself spectacularly, posting four points and leading all Buffalo forwards with an xGF rate of 56.71% at five-on-five according to Evolving Hockey.

Sounds like an easy decision, right? The franchise is flirting with a 13th-consecutive season without a playoff berth, and a team in that position should be most concerned with icing its best roster. At least you would think so.

Sadly, the decision isn’t as straightforward as it should be. There are extenuating factors that will play a role in the decision. We’ll touch on those shortly. Let’s start by taking a look at where Benson has provided positive impacts early, and why sending him back to the WHL would be indicative of a team that feels insufficient urgency to end the league’s longest-active playoff drought.

Immediate Emergence

Before we get into the extenuating factors that could impact whether or not Benson remains in the NHL for the rest of the season, I wanted to take a look at his production and establish just how effective he has been.

It’s not a stretch to call Benson one of the most refined D+1 forwards the Sabres have ever had in their system. His smallish frame does not deter him from engaging in (and winning) battles along the boards, and his two-way acumen is developed beyond his years.

On a Sabres team that has exhibited noticeable improvement on defense this season, Benson has certainly been part of the solution. His xGA/60 rate of 1.78 is far and away the best mark among Buffalo forwards. While his offensive impacts have been somewhat pedestrian relative to his contemporaries, his defensive efficiency is driving his overall xGF rate, which currently ranks second on the team.

Though Corey Sznajder has yet to release any tracking data for the 2023-24 season, the eye test would suggest that Benson’s puck retrieval numbers will be among the best on the team. The way he leverages position and physically engages himself to win puck battles is a breath of fresh air.

Kevyn Adams has made it a point to add puck retrievers to his roster over the last year or so. Jordan Greenway, Connor Clifton, and Erik Johnson all have a history of efficiency in that area. Still, the Sabres roster is thin with regard to that skillset, and Benson’s presence has been a welcome change of pace.

Some Zach Benson clips vs. WPG pic.twitter.com/ZwjKuTTDIw

— Sabremetrix📊 (@Sabremetrix) November 19, 2023

Benson’s tenacity on the puck has also made him an asset in terms of defensive zone exits. His ability to disrupt opposing counter-rushes with intelligent positioning and positional poise has served him well. The montage above from the Sabres contest against the Winnipeg Jets last week is an excellent encapsulation of what we’re talking about. Benson does a lot of “behind the scenes” work that could go unnoticed at the moment (hat-tip to our friend Sabremetrix for putting it together).

To put it bluntly, this isn’t a WHL player. He’s very much NHL-ready and a team in the Sabres’ position can’t afford to leave him off the roster. Not when you consider the tools he brings to the table, many of which the Sabres do not possess elsewhere on the roster.

Roster Space Examination

As it stands, the Sabres currently have 12 forwards on the roster. When Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn return from injury, they’ll have 14 (math is our strong suit here at xB). On a team that seems insistent (and justifiably so) on keeping three netminders on the roster, this would create a need to either trade or waive a forward (if and when the roster reaches full health).

Injuries happen, and there’s always a possibility that a space opens up organically in that way. Even if it doesn’t, the logical choice would be to simply waive Victor Olofsson (since nobody is interested in a $4 million sniper who… doesn’t score). While I wouldn’t necessarily support it, Tyson Jost could be another waiver candidate if the coaching staff is dead-set on having Olofsson available as the extra skater.

For argument’s sake, here is what the forward lines could look like if the Sabres have no new injuries on the books when Thompson and Quinn return to the lineup:

I do not for a second buy an argument that some phantom logjam is keeping Benson from a full time NHL role. Any such thing is self-inflicted and easily resolvable. It would require an entry-level amount of effort to secure a role for a player who has performed like he’s one of the Sabres top-six forwards so far this season.

An outside addition, however, could complicate things…

The Kane Factor

As the roster stands today, there is a simple and logical path to keeping Benson in the lineup with no significant transactional hurdles. If the Sabres end up signing Patrick Kane, however, that would make things more complicated.

There’s the obvious conversation surrounding Kane’s age, recent surgical history, and downward xG trajectory, but Chad DeDominicis covered a lot of it last week, so we won’t relitigate that part of the conversation. Still, it is tough to see a scenario where the Sabres can sign Kane and keep Benson on the roster.

This, of course, ties into the coaching staff’s reluctance and refusal to scratch one of Kyle Okposo or Zemgus Girgensons. Both players wear a letter, and that means something, but if winning games is the highest priority, they could handle some rotational duty down the stretch without sending the locker room dynamic into a vortex of doom.

Operating in reality, the Kane acquisition (assuming a fully healthy roster) would require all of the following things – waiving Olofsson, waiving Jost, and scratching one of Okposo or Girgensons on a nightly basis. If the organization is unwilling to do any of the above, it lends to reason (and historical trend) that they would simply take the path of least resistance and send Benson back to Wenatchee.

In my opinion, this is a scenario where acquiring Kane would represent an almost certain downgrade in the Sabres’ forward ranks. There is very little to suggest that he would come in and positively impact the forward group in the way Benson has to this point. Sure, anything is possible, but it’s far from likely.

At best, you’re trading two-way competence at even strength for power-play improvement. Beyond everything we’ve discussed to this point, it would also completely close off any real possibility for Jiri Kulich and/or Isak Rosen to play NHL minutes (of which they are both more than deserving) in 2023-24, again, barring a rash of injuries (which certainly could happen).

Closing Thoughts

Simply put, the Sabres are out of excuses when it comes to icing their best roster on a nightly basis. The argument for prolonged development at the expense of victory isn’t a luxury that can be afforded to a franchise in its position.

A healthy portion of this article could be applied to Ryan Johnson too. Hopefully, he doesn’t become a victim of roster space on the back end, because he’s played like a bonafide top-four defenseman to date. Again, veteran loyalty to a struggling Erik Johnson plays a factor here.

If either player is sent down shortly (to facilitate a Kane acquisition or otherwise), it would represent a clear indictment of either the organization’s sense of urgency as a whole, or even more concerning, their ability to assess NHL-readiness.

Advanced Metrics and Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and CapFriendly

Photo Credit: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images