Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju are currently the two headliners when it comes to the future with the Buffalo Sabres on defense. Owen Power will join them next year and Mattias Samuelsson has just entered the equation.

Under Don Granato, the two of them have played a lot of time together. In theory, it made sense to see if they worked as a pair to build around in the future. I was in favor of the move and giving them the minutes as a top-pair this season.

Having said all of that, it’s time for the experiment to end. It doesn’t work. Honestly, it never has.

Continuing to play them together when you already have your answer on how they would perform as a pair is not only hurting the team, but it’s negatively impacting them individually.

On-Ice Numbers

They’ve played together for at least 100 minutes in each of the last three years. This season is the worst of the three and that’s saying something. According to Evolving Hockey’s model, among pairs to play at least 150 minutes together (114 pairs) they are the second-worst defensive duo in on-ice score and venue adjusted shot quality at 5 on 5 (36.85%).

They’re fourth-worst in shot quality for per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 and 18th-worst in shot quality against per 60 minutes. If you’re a visual person, let me show how that looks below in Micah McCurdy’s model.

One concern I have is that the Sabres may be getting fooled a bit by their actual goal share as a pairing this season. That number is far better than their expected goal share at 49.37%. The catch is that they’re benefiting from an on-ice save percentage of 94.02%. That ranks 21st among this same group of pairs.

Last season is the only year you can make a small argument that the pair worked at the end of the season all things considered, but that’s still a stretch. Among 144 pairs to play at least 150 minutes in the twins’ model last season they ranked 103rd in 5 on 5 shot quality share.

In a little over 100 minutes in the 2019-20 season, they were 22nd-worst in 5 on 5 shot quality share and ninth-worst in xGF/60.

Over three years they’ve played 848 minutes together at 5 on 5 going into last night’s game. They have the 26th-lowest expected goal share of any pairing to play at least 200 minutes together over the last three years combined. No pair below them in that metric has been together for more than 500 minutes.

It goes beyond the numbers too. They don’t pass the eye test as a pair. One of their biggest problems on the ice is that they struggle with the same things in the defensive zone. Neither of them is good in front of their own net and it allows opposing offenses to take advantage of that. Both also have trouble dealing with forecheckers and moving the puck under pressure.

Numbers Without Each Other

What’s most frustrating is that Jokiharju and Dahlin have better on-ice numbers away from each other. Here’s a look at the numbers without each other, according to Natural Stat Trick:

Shot Share (Corsi)

• Dahlin and Jokiharju – 47.57%
• Dahlin w/o Jokiharju – 49.84%
• Jokiharju w/o Dahlin – 48.78%

Shot Quality Share (xGF%)

• Dahlin and Jokiharju – 43.59%
• Dahlin w/o Jokiharju – 47.01%
• Jokiharju w/o Dahlin – 48.08%

Both players also see a significant improvement at 5 on 5 in expected goals for and against in NST’s model.

Solutions

Oddly, Granato continues to try to force this pairing on a nightly basis. Earlier in the year, there were not a lot of options to try with all of the injuries. However, the blue line is mostly healthy now with only Colin Miller and Will Butcher being out.

Mattias Samuelsson has been a big addition to the blue line and may be a good partner for Jokiharju. If you recall, the Finnish defender played some of his best hockey with Marco Scandella. Samuelsson provides some of those similar traits in his game. He’s strong defensively, can help with breakouts, and can control the front of the net. Samuelsson also excels at defending the defensive blue line which will help reduce the amount of time Jokiharju would spend in the defensive zone.

With Dahlin, Granato could put him back with Mark Pysyk. That did work for a little bit when Jokiharju was injured. Another option that I may consider is playing Dahlin with Casey Fitzgerald. He’s undersized but does a good job defending the middle of the ice. Fitzgerald’s biggest issue in his game is the turnovers, but that can be reduced if Dahlin does most of the puck carrying on that pair. It may not work, but it’s something Granato could attempt.

This pairing may be one of my biggest issues with the coaching staff at this point. There are so many signs that they don’t work as a duo. There’s no need to continually try to make it a thing and force it. We have our answers on them as a pair.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Natural Stat Trick