At the end of last week, I debuted the first piece of my three-part series looking at unrestricted free agents. The first article looked at the most-valuable free-agent forwards that could be on the market in the offseason.

Part two will be a look at the defensemen that could be available in the upcoming free-agent class. The Buffalo Sabres likely won’t be in the market for help on the blue line and if they are it’ll be a depth move. They still have a handful of players that will return to the defense group, including a few that are knocking on the door for an opportunity in the NHL.

If the Sabres do move one or two defenders in the offseason, then it’s possible they’ll look for replacements in the free-agent market. Unfortunately, the class this year isn’t great. They have some big names like Alex Pietrangelo from the St. Louis Blues and Torey Krug from the Boston Bruins. However, there are not a lot of players in that “value” signing category.

The analysis will be similar to what I used for the forwards. I’ll be looking at Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above the replacement (xGAR) model and their contract projections. You can click the link above to see the full breakdown of how the analysis is conducted if you’re interested in the deeper thoughts behind it.

Let’s start by taking a look at the chart that plots these players based on the aforementioned data points to get a bulk view of the class.

1. Dylan DeMelo (RD)

Starting off our list is current Winnipeg Jets defender, Dylan DeMelo. The 26-year-old was traded to the Jets from the Ottawa Senators at the trade deadline this past season. He’s one of the youngest players available in the class and is seventh overall in xGAR (4.2).

Where you find the value in DeMelo is his age and projected contract. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year contract with a $2.936 million cap hit. He’s only one of three defensemen on the list with an xGAR above one and a projected cap hit under three million.

The Canadian-born defender isn’t going to give you much offensively, but he’s solid in his own end of the ice. His underlying numbers were especially impressive defensively for a defenseman on the Ottawa Senators. He’s second among all defensemen in the free-agent class in the twins xGAR model in even-strength defense.

2. Marco Scandella (LD)

The second player is old friend Marco Scandella. This gives you an idea of how much talent is in this class and also how strong of a bounce-back season he had. It wasn’t only with the Sabres; Scandella played well for the Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues as well. He’s tied for fourth with TJ Brodie among all of the players in xGAR (7.1).

It’s hard to gauge what kind of player you’re going to get with the big defender. He came into this season riding a three-year decline in goals above replacement, but he rebounded in a big way, which is rare for a player of his age. Scandella was utilized properly as a bottom-pair defender and not a top-four defenseman. That appears to have helped him find his game again.

He’s 30-years-old so you don’t want to invest long-term. The twins model projects a three-year contract for him that carries a $3.43 million cap hit. The Sabres depth on the left side isn’t as strong as it is on the right and we know that he pairs well with Henri Jokiharju. It’s unlikely we see a reuniting of the two sides, but Scandella has earned a decent new contract with another team.

3. Trevor van Riemsdyk (RD)

Finding a third player to list wasn’t easy. I landed on Carolina Hurricanes defenseman, Trevor van Riemsdyk. The 28-year-old is essentially a replacement-level player that is fine defensively and could be a good cheap depth signing.

Evolving Hockey projected only a one-year deal that carries a cap hit of $882,000. The Sabres would likely just go with a player like Will Borgen to play depth role as opposed to signing a defender like van Riemsdyk.

Honorable Mentions

I left a few players off the list, but they’re worth mentioning as decent options with some concerns. The first player is Los Angeles Kings defenseman, Ben Hutton. The 27-year-old had a nice season with the Kings after some really poor years with the Canucks. He came in near the top in the class in xGAR (6.2).

Where it starts to get tough is when we begin to look at contract projections. These projections have him getting a five-year deal with a $4.447 million cap hit. That’s a steep commitment to make for a player that only has one strong season. Especially on a team like the Kings that had a handful of players with strong underlying numbers, but it didn’t carry over to results for the team.

I don’t buy the turnaround for Hutton. I’d fear that he would return to the player he was with the Canucks. Therefore, I’d steer clear of him in free agency.

Another interesting name is Brodie from the Calgary Flames. His underlying numbers have been good throughout his career, but his age and contract commitments are the problems here. The 30-year-old is projected to get a three-year deal with a $5 million cap hit. The term isn’t bad, but the Sabres shouldn’t be investing that much cap space into a player in an area of strong depth when the forwards need a lot of help.

Bad Ideas

Of course, there are a few names that the Sabres should avoid at all costs if they plan to explore the free-agent market on the blue line. The player at the top of list is Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman, Tyson Barrie. He had one of the lowest xGAR (-1.5) on among all of the UFA defenders and is projected to get a seven-year deal with a $7.3 million cap hit.

Barrie is overvalued because he has some offensive ability in his game, but he’s really poor in his own end of the ice. He’s the worst among all the defensemen on this list in even-strength defense (-3.2) in the model.

Speaking of Leafs defensemen, Cody Ceci is another defender to avoid. He also was among the worst in xGAR and has been a below replacement level player his entire career. Ceci doesn’t add to his club offensively and isn’t great in his own end either.

The last player to stay from is Travis Hamonic of the Calgary Flames. The 29-year-old is another defenseman that is bad in his own end and could receive a contract that doesn’t match his ability. He’s projected to receive a five-year contract with a $5.3 million cap hit.

I’ll wrap this series later this week looking at the goaltenders that could be on the market. The Sabres are in need of an upgrade at the position and could be players in the market. Goalies are hard to evaluate, so I’m curious to see how the numbers turn out.