Unrestricted free agency can be a dangerous route to improve your hockey club. The Buffalo Sabres have found this out the hard way a few times. While building through the draft and trades has led to more success for teams (most of the time), free agency can be beneficial when it’s approached the right way.

The unrestricted free agent market is scheduled to have some bigger names available when the offseason does get into gear. Players like Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo, Tyler Toffoli, and Jacob Markstrom are a few names that highlight the upcoming class.

Analysis

We all know that the Sabres still have a bunch of holes to fill on their roster and they can do so via the free-agent market. Therefore, I decided to put together the best options by position that are currently on track to hit the market.

Up first I’m going to look at forwards that appear to be the best value. I looked at a few different areas to determine which players should be at the top of the Sabres list when the venture into free agency. The first data point I used was Evolving Hockey’s contract projections. I used this as the baseline to determine the type of contract that each player will get in free agency. The twins’ projection model was quite accurate last year.

This. Is. Bananas.

cc: @EvolvingWild pic.twitter.com/AlerFz8ZWQ

— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) September 17, 2019

The next data point I considered was Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement (xGAR) model. This model is better than regular GAR in predicting the future impact of a player.

GAR is very difficult to project; it is inherently quite noisy/random season to season. This, I think, makes sense and is not a design flaw. Hockey is extremely random, and measuring “actual” value added tends to reflect this.

— EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) February 15, 2020

Lastly, I took age into account. We all know the impact that the aging curve has on players in the NHL. Of course, there are some rare instances where some players are more productive into their mid-30’s. However, the best practice is to attempt to get players in their late 20’s in unrestricted free agency.

Now, let’s go to the chart.

On the chart above you’ll see the free-agent forwards xGAR from 2019 on the y-axis and their projected cap hit along the x-axis. The different shades in color on the bubbles is to indicate the differences in age. The darker red the bubble, the older the player is. 

This visualization gives us a bulk look at the players that have value and those that you likely want to avoid on the open market in free agency. At this point, we can begin to select the top three options at forward that the Sabres should explore. 

1. Tyler Toffoli

The player at the top of the list for me is winger Tyler Toffoli. He’s currently a member of the Vancouver Canucks after being traded from the Los Angeles Kings at the trade deadline. He was available via trade for most of the season and would likely have been a good option for a team like the Sabres that were in need of scoring help.

He has the highest xGAR (11) of any player on this list and his projected cap hit is under $7 million, according to Evolving Hockey. They predict that his most likely contract will be a seven-year deal that carries a $6.745 million.  Getting a player of his talent for less than 8% of a salary cap percentage on an $84 million cap ceiling is a great value.

He turns 28-years-old at the end of April, making him one of the youngest players available. A seven-year contract would take him to 35-years-old. It’s possible the team that signs him would get at least five good years out of that contract. 

His most common linemates with the Kings were Jeff Carter (48%) and Anze Kopitar (31%). Carter is on the downside of his career and isn’t the type of player that Kopitar is. When he was given the opportunity in Los Angeles to play on the top line he was to be productive, but that wasn’t often.

Since being traded to the Canucks he’s played primarily with J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. In 10 games with Vancouver, he had six goals and 10 points playing in a first-line role. You’d think that you would get similar production putting Toffoli with an elite center like Jack Eichel.

2. Jesper Fast

Jesper Fast is the hidden gem in this potential free-agent class, in my opinion. He’s a player that can play up and down your lineup. His primary linemates with the New York Rangers this season have been Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. He’s a strong two-way forward that can play special teams as well. 

Fast is the only player on the list that is under 30-years-old with an xGAR above four and carries a projected cap hit below $4 million. The Evolving Hockey projected contract is a three-year deal with a $3.06 million cap hit. That seems like a no-brainer for the 28-year-old Swede. I wouldn’t have a problem paying up to $4 million per season to make sure I can add him to my roster.

3. Craig Smith

The final player in my top three is Nashville Predators winger, Craig Smith. He’s the oldest player in this top three at 30-years-old. However, his projected contract of a three-year deal with a $4.55 million cap hit makes him affordable with the low contract term. 

He carries the second-best xGAR (9.7) on the list and has been a consistent producer for the Predators. He’s another good two-way winger that can get you around 20 goals a year. This is something the Sabres have been searching for in the middle-six for years. 

Smith also provides some leadership and playoff experience to add to the club. He’s an underrated player that would be a nice low-key signing for the Sabres. 

Honorable mentions: Mikael Granlund and Tyler Ennis 

Bad Ideas

I probably should take a moment to point a few players that you’d want the Sabres to avoid in free agency. The player at the top of that list is Taylor Hall. He carries a -1.5 xGAR and is projected to receive a seven-year contract with a $8.8 million cap hit. The only interest I would have in Hall is on a one-year deal. 

I’d bet on him having a slight bounce back over the next few seasons, but I’m not sure it would be enough to account for that type of contract. He’s showing signs of decline and you don’t want to be the team that pays him his next contract. 

Another player to avoid is current Sabres winger, Wayne Simmonds. He carries a -1.3 xGAR and is projected to receive a higher cap hit than Jesper Fast. Combine that with his age (31) and you have to hope the Sabres don’t offer him a new deal. 

The last player I would avoid from this analysis is Alex Galchenyuk. He’s only 26-years-old but is a few years removed from making any type of positive impact on his team. He’s only projected to get a one-year deal with a cap hit under $2 million, but it’s just better to avoid that player in general. It reminds me a lot of the Jimmy Vesey situation that the Sabres took a chance on that did not work out. 

Up next I’ll take a look at the blue line and some get an idea of some players the Sabres can explore if they want to add to that position.