The Buffalo Sabres’ decision to lift the “interim” tag and make Don Granato the team’s next head coach was an expected one. Following what at least appeared to be a thorough coaching search, the team finally announced their decision on Tuesday, signing the 53-year-old to a three-year agreement.

Taking over for Ralph Krueger, who was arguably the worst tactician in the history of the organization, comes with very low-pressure expectations. With the Sabres long removed from any realistic playoff conversation, the stakes for Granato were relatively low. Still, we’re talking about a man who was vying for a permanent head-coaching role, so regardless of the circumstances that preceded him, his modest success to close out the 2021 campaign was noteworthy.

For a team that had been obliterated with injuries (and missing its franchise player in Jack Eichel), Granato’s ability to enact on-the-fly tactical adjustments with an extremely young and inexperienced roster is impressive. Though his record of 9-16-3 to close out the year was far from headline-worthy, given the circumstances, it represented an improvement (again, not hard to do for a team that had recently tied an NHL record with 18 consecutive losses).

The question now is whether or not Granato can display that same level of competence as the bench boss next season. In terms of wins and losses, the answer to that question will depend heavily on whether Kevyn Adams plans to simply “retool” his roster this summer, or commence a complete purge of the Sabres’ existing core.

Retooling or Rebuilding?

Let’s take a look at what seem to be the two most likely (and viable) paths Adams could take in the coming months. For this exercise, we’ll assume that the endless trade speculation surrounding Eichel is legitimate, and he ends up being traded before the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. There is no doubt that dealing away the team’s best player is a sign of a rebuild, but in this case, it might not necessarily be indicative of an imminent roster demolition.

During Granato’s 28-game run to close out last season, Eichel was unavailable to him as he was still sidelined with a neck injury (among other ailments). Instead, his group was elevated by Sam Reinhart, a player who was utilized primarily on the wing before Granato’s takeover. As the team’s de facto top-line center, the 25-year-old flourished down the stretch, posting 21 points in those 28 contests.

Given his less-than-enthusiastic tone during the end-of-season press conference, speculation about Reinhart’s future in Buffalo has been brought into question as well. As a pending RFA, would he be interested in signing a long-term extension with Buffalo, and is that even something that Adams is interested in pursuing?

That remains to be seen, but the answer will be the most telling indicator as to what Adams envisions as a reasonable lead-time before the Sabres become a serious playoff contender. With Reinhart back in the fold, the task of “retooling” the roster is a lot less daunting. It’s worth mentioning that every time he’s been asked about Reinhart, Granato has given glowing reviews, acknowledging how Reinhart stepped up as a leader last season.

Without Reinhart, there would very little depth protection down the middle for players like Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, and the other developing forwards on the roster. Granted, in the event of a full-blown rebuild, Adams would probably acquire a “bad money” veteran in one of these trades to insulate his young core (Adam Henrique is a good example of what I’m referring to here), but the existing youngsters would still be asked to do an awful lot.

It would seem that the “lead time” for how quickly the Sabres expect to become a playoff contender will depend a lot on what they do with Reinhart. With Eichel all but gone, what they do with Reinhart will be the biggest indicator as to just how much they plan to go scorched earth for 2021-22.

Development From Within

The good news here is that regardless of the path the Sabres elect to choose in a post-Eichel reality, Granato was still the most logical hire. Any way you slice it, this team will be very young at both ends of the ice. As a coach with a player development background from his days with the USNTDP, his proclivity for adjusting his system to facilitate growth and contribution from young players was on display when he took over for Krueger.

One really important note in support of this claim is the impact Granato’s unshackled system had on Rasmus Dahlin. The change in the 21-year-old’s underlying metrics under Granato was nothing short of astounding. For a player that excelled as a free-wheeling entity throughout his junior career, there is no tangible evidence to suggest that his poor start to the 2020-21 campaign was a result of being asked to do less of what he did best (before Granato’s takeover).

https://twitter.com/ntrider825/status/1410357767941103622?s=20

Mittelstadt is another good example of someone who experienced underlying improvements (and base statistical upticks for that matter) over the last 28 games of the year. Under Granato, he was producing at a 49-point pace (over a full 82-game slate) while playing primarily down the middle.

Another factor here is Granato’s decision to mitigate some of Mittelstadt’s defensive shortcomings by having him skate with Rasmus Asplund on his wing, resulting in a mutually beneficial xG relationship for both players. In fact, Asplund ended the season as one of the top xGF/60 players on the team with a rate of 2.29.

The Sabres want to be better at developing talent from within. Part of that plan must involve ending the vicious cycle of organizational over-development where players can’t penetrate a wall of veteran roadblocks in their pursuit of an opportunity with the big club.

On top of an improved understanding of age curves, the team must also be better at putting developing assets in positions to succeed once they do receive their NHL opportunities. Having an experienced youth facilitator like Granato (who has on multiple occasions preached a policy of letting his young players simply play their game instead of dwelling on the possibility of making a mistake) at the helm should only help that cause.

Closing Thoughts

As previously mentioned, the Sabres are highly likely to ice one of the youngest rosters in the NHL in 2021-22. We’ve already seen positive returns (in a short sample) from players like Cozens, Dahlin, and Mittelstadt. With other youngsters like William Borgen, Jacob Bryson, Matthias Samuelsson, and Arttu Ruotsalainen likely to experience expanded responsibilities over the next couple of seasons, Granato seems like the best choice, given the circumstances.

While yesterday’s introductory press conference didn’t provide a whole lot in terms of soundbite value, Granato confirmed a few things that many had already noticed. He mentioned that giving Dahlin “a little more freedom” was indeed intentional. He also made sure to note that every player’s development must be handled on a case-by-case basis.

Don Granato: "When you're talking about player development, it's as much about what you don't say and don't do. A lot of intricacies go into it. Every player is at a different stage, has different identity.

— Crossing Swords ⚔️ (@CrossSwordsPod) July 1, 2021

This sentiment is another example of how Granato is the antithesis of a coach like Krueger, who felt that every player should adapt to his system and not vice-versa. It’s amazing to think that these two men served on the same coaching staff at any point.

Had the Sabres come out and said that they would try another year with the current core, perhaps a more experienced head coach like Bruce Boudreau would have been the better play. Now that their roster shakeup intentions have been pretty well telegraphed, a stable, patient bench boss with development experience is the move they needed to make to help smooth the threshold of another inevitable roster transition.

If Adams does what most of us expect by trading off veteran core assets like Eichel, Reinhart, or RIstolainen, the 2021-22 squad will essentially be a blank canvas for Granato to work with.

I guess you could say that the (meat)ball is in his court…

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Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images