The Buffalo Sabres are not off the start fans were expecting. Despite a relatively soft schedule in terms of competition level, the team has kicked-off the year with a 2-4-0 record. A disappointment to be sure.

In analytics, we constantly stress sample size. Six games is not a viable sample to glean much of anything. As a senior in high school, I received a piece of advice from my Macro Economics teacher that has stuck with me for years (on the off chance he’s a subscriber, shoutout to Mr. Basehart).

“Don’t lose the forest among the trees.”

As a moody 18-year-old, it didn’t resonate at the time. What he was trying to tell me is not to lose sight of the big picture while you’re busy focusing on one specific aspect of a problem. Given where we stand with the 2023-24 Sabres, that sentiment probably applies. With that in mind, let’s look at what is different about this year’s team, and how their revised overall approach could create more sustainable success.

Sustainable Hockey

We know what the Sabres were last season. A young, fiery team whose success was almost exclusively predicated on their ability to score off the rush. As we know, rush chances have a higher propensity for success than cycle chances so, there was merit to the approach.

Don Granato also had a team of offensive weapons (many of which had yet to be “unlocked”), many of whom were not defined defensive entities. He worked with what he had and managed to get his team within a point of the postseason (despite most prognosticators projecting them as an 80-84 point team at best).

Skillset Diversification

On the flipside, the book was out so to speak, on how to beat them. Teams that can effectively run the 1-3-1 (i.e. the modern trap), have been extremely successful in taking away the Sabres’ offensive transition game. Fans saw the New York Rangers and New York Islanders execute the approach with perfection during the Sabres first two games of the 2023-24 campaign.

Credit where it’s due, @HaseksCage on Twitter (a friend in real life whose name I’ll omit for the sake of their privacy) inspired me to think about this a bit further during a text conversation following last night’s disappointing loss to the Montreal Canadiens. The more I thought about it, the better it made me feel.

So, let’s try to find the forest among the trees. As we’ve noted before, Kevyn Adams has been keen to add players who address areas of deficiency, as opposed to doubling down on the team’s full-send offensive approach from 2022-23. It started with Jordan Greenway, a player who, to some, did not seem like a logical fit on a team like Buffalo, but provided offensive puck retrieval and defensive skills that the team had previously lacked up front.

Then, this summer, he added Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson. Two more players with a penchant for puck retrieval and defensive acumen. There’s an argument to be made that these were the Sabres’ greatest deficiencies in 2022-23, and it speaks toward what we’re now seeing from a tactical standpoint early in this season.

The Upfront Cost of Defensive Reconditioning

There is no doubt that the Sabres have a reimagined approach on defense to this point. Last year, their team xGA/60 of 2.90 ranked 27th in the NHL. Through six games (again, a ridiculously small sample), the improvement has been noticeable, as their xGA/60 of 2.73 currently ranks 21st. Not a huge shift, but it’s better in the early going.

An unwelcome byproduct of this (among other things that we’ll touch upon) is an equally severe and converse result on offense. While it’s far too early to glean anything from team microstats, it’s painfully apparent in just watching the games, that the Sabres have been ineffective at establishing dangerous rush sequences to this point in the season.

Initially, I thought that part of this was a shift in philosophy offensively. It seemed to me that the team was trying to establish the offensive cycle with a greater degree of consistency compared to last season. We need a larger viewing sample to be certain, but I think I might have been incorrect with that initial impression.

I’m not sure that this development is intentional. Instead, I’m entertaining the possibility that the team’s newfound defensive focus has caused an early lack of previously established cohesion on the counter-rush. This has led to fewer zone-entries with control, and fewer scoring chances off said rush.

Here’s where the diversification of skill comes back into play. Assets like Greenway and Zach Benson have provided strong puck-retrieval results (as expected for Greenway, and a welcome NHL-ready revelation in Benson’s case). So, despite a reduced rate of danger off the rush, the Sabres are spending a bit more time with possession in the offensive zone (and less time hemmed in the defensive zone) than they did last season. Again, I stress that this is a very small sample.

We’ve looked at the trees, now back to the forest. What we have here is a previously one-dimensional team that certain teams could extinguish with amazing ease. Now, we have a squad trying to not only regain their offensive prowess but also add other dimensions to their approach.

This, of course, has led to some disjointed efforts in the early going. It has also led to concern that the Sabres are forfeiting their greatest weapons in a venture for added tactical balance. Again, I was one of those people, but thinking upon it further (another nod to @HaseksCage for inspiring me to do so), I believe that the Sabres are working out kinks to make themselves a well-rounded team with a more sustainable tactical model.

Patience is a Virtue (And a Bleepin’ Audacious Thing to Ask For)

To implore Sabres fans to “be patient” takes a lot of nerve at this point. It has been 12 years since the team’s last playoff appearance. They’ve been plenty patient.

Compounding on the mental strife is a General Manager who has taken an extremely measured and conservative approach to player acquisition. It was always a recipe for fan ire if the team didn’t come out of the gate firing on all cylinders this season.

As expected, the Sabres’ shooting bender from last season has not carried over. They’re shooting at 6.8% compared to last season’s mark of 9.46%. That will almost certainly regress positively back toward the mean. When that happens, it will be interesting to see how it changes the perception around them and inspires them to play a more confident, less frustrated game.

If and when that offensive uptick occurs alongside an improved defensive approach, the 2023-24 (and beyond) Sabres will be more dangerous than the 2022-23 team could have ever hoped to be. You’re already seeing how the defense has made life easier on the team’s netminders (who have posted a positive GSAx rate of 2.87 early on).

I’m not here to tell you not to be frustrated. I’m also not here to tell you to be patient (lord knows I haven’t been). What I am asking is whether you want to see the Sabres double down on their approach from last season (which may get you into the playoffs, but probably not very far after that), or work through some transitional strife as they adapt to a more well-rounded approach.

For now, I’ll opt for the latter. Time will tell how it all shakes out.

Advanced Metrics and Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, and NHL EDGE

Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports