Last season, Dylan Cozens was one of the most unexpectedly polarizing players on the Buffalo Sabres’ roster. As Trevor Zegras (who was selected two spots after Cozens at the 2019 NHL Entry Draft) racked up highlight-reel offensive sequences for the Anaheim Ducks, a certain segment of the fan base bemoaned Cozens’ lack of counting stat production (relatively speaking).

With one year remaining on his entry-level contract, the 2022-23 campaign could be a pivotal point in Cozens’ career. A base scoring improvement could ultimately land him a long-term extension. Conversely, another year of middling box score numbers (regardless of underlying impacts) could result in a bridge deal next summer.

While the 21-year-old centerman certainly figures into the Sabres’ long-term vision, the extent of their commitment will likely be impacted by how he performs in 2022-23. With that in mind, let’s assess which specific facets of Cozens’ game need to improve as he embarks on his third season at the NHL level.

Areas of Strength

Before we explore the specific areas where Cozens needs to exhibit marked growth, we should acknowledge the existing strengths in his game. While specific facets of his game did improve as the 2021-22 season progressed, Cozens’ most significant impact came in transition.

Along with Jeff Skinner, Cozens stood head-and-shoulders above his fellow Buffalo forwards when it came to flipping the ice last season. Though Skinner had a slight edge in controlled zone entries per 60, Cozens led the team in entries leading to scoring chances.

The term “transition” can be relatively vague, but for a team like the Sabres, Cozens’ transitional aptitude is especially valuable. No other team in the NHL last season deployed a system so strictly predicated on rush offense.

As a team, the Sabres had the lowest rate of “dump-and-chase” sequences in the NHL. If that is to remain a hallmark of Don Granato’s tactical approach, Cozens’ natural ability to not only enter the zone with control but also create chances off the rush, will remain particularly valuable.

Another facet of Cozens’ development that has been largely overlooked, is the significant defensive growth he exhibited last season. During his rookie campaign (2020-21), Cozens’ xGA/60 mark of 3.04 was one of the worst rates among Sabres forwards. Last season, that mark improved down to 2.60, which brought him closer to the middle of the pack among his contemporaries.

This improvement came in part due to Cozens’ increased willingness to engage defensively. If you look at his puck retrieval metrics, he did an admirable job of establishing puck retrievals that led to zone exits. On the flip side, he also led the team in botched puck retrievals.

That might sound contradictory, but it’s just an indication of how often Cozens was involved in the defensive sequence. While he certainly could stand to improve the rate at which he can successfully win defensive puck battles (and subsequently come away with control), his willingness to get his hands dirty defensively is encouraging.

Should that trend continue, he could establish himself as an “all-situations” center. Last season, he was relatively sheltered as nearly 57% of his shifts started in the offensive zone. It will be interesting to see if his defensive development inspires Granato to give him a higher rate of defensive zone starts in 2022-23.

Improvements Required

In reviewing Cozens’ metrics as it relates to improvement (or otherwise) over time, most facets of his game are on an expectedly steady trajectory. The most glaringly obvious area where he continues to struggle is his inability to produce finishing impacts.

Though he tends to create a high rate of primary shot-assists, those setups aren’t often of the “dangerous” variety. In addition, Cozens’ hasn’t had an established “finisher” on his line (with any degree of consistency) during his first two NHL seasons.

Compounding on all of this are his individual shooting metrics. His shooting percentage of 8.1% last season did represent an improvement over his rookie rate (6.5% in 2020-21). His propensity to shoot in general also improved (iCF/60 of 10.4 as a rookie versus 12.66 last season).

That growth is mildly encouraging, but the upward trajectory in that regard needs to continue. In addition to taking it upon himself to simply shoot the puck more often, Cozens could use a finisher capable of finding openings in high-danger areas.

He’s already an adept puck-distributor (as further evidenced by the “setting” rate in the image above), but that only gets you so far if your linemates can’t convert scoring chances (or even establish said chances with a degree of consistency). The addition of a positionally-intelligent shooter and a solid forechecker should help optimize Cozens’ existing ability as a passer and transition entity.

In summation, the absence of finishing impacts is the most critical issue that Cozens needs to try and resolve moving forward. Assuming that he “stays the course” regarding the steady improvements we’ve seen in most other areas of his game (not a sure bet), this is the main component holding him back from becoming a complete top-six centerman at the NHL level.

Skillset Optimization

Last season, the winger combination of Rasmus Asplund and Victor Olofsson posted outstanding metrics as a duo. For the majority of their even-strength ice time, they were centered by Casey Mittelstadt. While this line held a strong xG rate overall, the expected offensive production was relatively pedestrian.

Simply put, this trio scored well above expectation. Their expected-goal total of 5.9 as a unit at even strength serves in stark contrast to the 11 actual goals they produced. Any line with Olofsson on it tends to produce goals over expectations, but not to such a dramatic degree. That type of PDO outcome probably isn’t replicable.

In terms of skillset, Cozens would seem like a better fit to center Asplund and Olofsson (on paper).  As you can see from the zone-entry chart in the first subsection of the article, all three of Asplund, Olofsson, and Mittelstadt are average (at best) offensive transition players. In terms of entries that lead to scoring chances, Mittelstadt had one of the lowest success rates on the team last season.

So, what does this entail? While Mittelstadt is thought of as a good passer, Cozens is a better one. He’s also more talented in transition, which we’ve already discussed here. There are very few things Mittelstadt does better than Cozens in terms of skills required to truly round-out an Asplund-Olofsson winger tandem.

In an extremely limited sample last season, my thought process was provided with a glimmer of vindication. Though we’re talking about a 49-minute sample, Cozens’ presence between Asplund and Olofsson (instead of Mittelstadt) led to some intriguing results.

In the last section, I touched on the idea that Cozens would be well-suited to serve alongside a winger capable of finding an open position in high-danger areas. Unsurprisingly, nobody on the Sabres roster had a higher rate of shots off high-danger setups than Olofsson last season.

As someone who isn’t married to the idea of Mittelstadt as a center in general, replacing him with Cozens on that line seems like a worthwhile experiment to start the 2022-23 season. Another side benefit of this line would be some added deployment versatility. The Asplund-Mittelstadt-Olofsson line held an OZS rate of nearly 61% last season.

Cozens seems to have surpassed Mittelstadt as far as defensive development goes (not a particularly difficult feat). With Asplund in support, placing Cozens as the center on this line could help Granato utilize it in a wider variety of situations.

Contract Scenarios

Speculating Cozens’ next contract is an open-ended endeavor with many possible outcomes. As previously stated, the extent of his offensive growth (finishing impacts being the primary factor), will largely dictate the price and term.

If he hovers around a half-point per-game scoring rate, I could see the Sabres opting for a “show me” type of bridge agreement. Though, if his underlying numbers continue to climb despite stagnated box score production, it might be a savvy gamble to lock him down for more term at a lower AAV.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, should Cozens kick down the doors like the 2021-22 version of Tage Thompson, things could get expensive quickly. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as the Sabres don’t have a “sure-fire” top-line center at the NHL level right now.

Coincidentally, Thompson’s current deal is also set to expire next summer. Should he replicate his production from last season while Cozens continues to make offensive strides, the Sabres might have to adjust their plans regarding future expenditures (specifically at the center position). Thankfully, the salary cap ceiling should climb a bit more dramatic in the coming years.

The best thing the Sabres have going for them in this situation is that Cozens doesn’t have any arbitration leverage. Again, the range of outcomes is vast, and prognosticating the specifics of his next deal (or Thompson’s for that matter) would be a wasted venture right now. Still, it’s something to keep in mind as the 2022-23 season progresses.

Closing Thoughts

The good news is that last season, Cozens’ numbers improved in nearly all of the “weak areas” he exhibited the year prior. To go a step further, there was also demonstrable in-season improvement in his shot volume, and defensive play as the 2021-22 campaign progressed.

Should his upward trajectory in these areas continue, he’ll make for a very well-rounded centerman. If he can add some degree of finishing prowess to his game, this is a player who still carries top-line potential.

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Hockeyviz, All Three Zones, and CapFriendly

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images