After months of speculation, the Buffalo Sabres’ expansion draft protection list was revealed this afternoon. To the delight of many, the protected group were relatively predictable, and did not include any unwelcome assets. Unfortunately, there was one valuable defensive piece left unprotected (which was expected to an extent), which we’ll get to shortly.

Either way, today’s news narrowed the scope of potential outcomes for when the Seattle Kraken make their selection from the Buffalo roster on Wednesday evening. With that in mind, let’s unpack and analyze the most realistic scenarios.

Outcome #1: Seattle Selects Colin Miller

We’ll start with the most desirable of possible occurrences. With one year remaining on his current deal worth $3.875 AAV, Miller struggled during the 2020-21 season. As a player whose name has appeared on the rumor mill dating back to last season’s trade deadline, his expansion draft departure would be a welcome one.

It is important to acknowledge that there are two conceivable sub-contexts in this scenario. The Kraken could take Miller instead of an option like William Borgen. Despite the fact that Borgen was a demonstrably better player last season (not to mention younger and less expensive), Seattle may see Miller’s past experience as part of an expansion franchise (2017-19 with the Vegas Golden Knights) as a positive.

In third-pairing minutes with the Golden Knights in that stretch, Miller fared very well. Clearly his performance in Vegas was what inspired former Sabres GM, Jason Botterill to part with multiple draft assets in order to acquire him two seasons ago.

A second possibility exists where the Kraken still select Miller, but do so in exchange for a Sabres draft pick (likely a 3^rd or 4^th-round selection). This scenario would occur as a result of Kevyn Adams wanting to ensure Borgen’s return, and not leave it up to chance.

Ultimately, Seattle’s decision may depend on what they do up front. Across the league, swaths of valuable forwards were left exposed today. The only problem is that many of them carry hefty price tags. If Ron Francis is keen on spending money up front while looking for discount options on defense, Miller may not make as much sense.

The final important factor here pertains to how easily Seattle could flip Miller as an asset if need be. Should Francis see him as a trade piece that could net him a return in the form of future pieces, perhaps that alone could be enough reason to take him.

Outcome #2: Seattle Selects Zemgus Girgensons

Though this would obviously be another desirable outcome for the Sabres, it’s probably the least realistic. As previously stated, the Kraken have a myriad of options to choose from up front. The likelihood of them selecting a player who is probably overpaid ($2.2 million AAV through the 2022-23 season) and coming off a season-ending Achilles injury, is likely low.

Prior to missing the entire 2020-21 season, Girgensons had consistently posted very strong defensive metrics as a member of the Sabres’ famed “LOG Line”. Whether or not his positive underlying numbers were a direct result of playing alongside a top-end defensive center in Johan Larsson is a topic of debate. Either way, his prowess in the defensive end and ability to aid in zone-exit transition is a plus (on top of his ability to kill penalties).

As a player who relies heavily on his above-average skating speed, the Kraken would need to be comfortable that Girgensons can make a full recovery. If not, he may struggle to be as effective.

Outcome #3: Seattle Selects William Borgen

Here we arrive at the least palatable outcome. Borgen’s exposure has been the hottest topic of debate among Sabres fans over the past few weeks. Many (myself included) felt that the Adams should have “called Seattle’s bluff” and exposed Rasmus Ristolainen in lieu of Borgen. After all, would have seemed like a strange decision for a very analytics-heavy front office to select a player with some of the worst underlying metrics in the league.

That move would have carried a little risk along with it. Perhaps the Kraken brass would have seen Ristolainen as a valuable trade chip despite his poor advanced stats. This move would have also represented a gamble on the Sabres’ end, particularly if they feel there is a legitimate trade market for the soon-to-be 27-year-old. Either way, exposing him seemed like a risk worth taking, but alas.

To analytics folks like myself, Borgen is the “slam-dunk” option for Seattle among the Sabres’ exposed assets. He is only 25 years old, and as a pending RFA, he is expected to command $800,000 AAV on his next deal, per Evolving Hockey. Despite only playing nine games for Buffalo last season (mostly as a result of a long-term upper-body injury), he has shown well in limited NHL action.

Borgen’s defensive prowess from three seasons with the Rochester Amerks didn’t appear to miss much of a beat. During limited minutes alongside Rasmus Dahlin, the two of them looked like excellent compliments for one another, Dahlin being the “free-wheeler” of the two, while Borgen played more conservatively.

There is an opinion (one which I hold) that Adams should try everything he can (within reason) to convince the Kraken not to select Borgen on Wednesday. Those in favor of this approach have speculated that the Sabres could send a mid-round draft pick to Seattle in order to accomplish this, but there are perhaps alternative measures.

One outside-the-box thought is that the Sabres could offer up a comparable asset who happened to be expansion-exempt in Jacob Bryson. As another young defenseman in the Sabres’ system, Bryson showed flashes of skill in his 38-game stint with the blue-and-gold last season. His strongest asset his his puck-carrying ability, which helped him lead all Buffalo defenders in controlled zone-exit rate last season.

Unfortunately, that’s where his positive attributes start and stop. In particular, his defensive zone play left a lot to be desired. To put it plainly, he’s really only effective when the puck is on his stick. From a skillset standpoint, he is extremely comparable to Brandon Montour in that way.

At 23 years old, he is a waive-exempt player. This could be a huge selling point to Francis who will find himself trying to assemble something resembling a farm system in the coming months. With players like Dahlin, Ryan Johnson, and Mattias Samuelsson slated on the left side of the Sabres’ defensive future, Bryson looks like sort of the odd-man out projecting forward. If the Sabres end up selecting Owen Power (another left-shot defender) with the first-overall pick in the 2021 draft, Bryson’s climb to a regular spot in Buffalo becomes even more steep.

On the opposite side of the spectrum of this debate, there are many who feel that Adams should offer Seattle nothing and simply let the chips fall where they may. Those opposed to trading a future in order to secure Borgen’s return are quick to site his waiver status, which is a compelling point. With all of the blue line talent available to the Kraken on Wednesday, perhaps Borgen wouldn’t end up being one of their top-seven defensemen.

As a waiver eligible player, Borgen cannot simply be sent down. He would need to pass through waivers and the Sabres have top claim priority as the league’s last-place finisher in 2020-21. Still, this doesn’t seem like a worthwhile risk for a team that has very little in terms of RHD in the organizational pipeline.

It will be interesting to see what ultimately happens on Wednesday evening. Hopefully Francis et al decide to take Miller without compensation and Sabres fans can all sleep soundly that evening.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Joe Hrycych/NHLI via Getty Images