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Sabres power play remains an ongoing issue

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

The Buffalo Sabres’ power play has been an ongoing issue for at least two years, if not longer. It was always something fans discussed as a reason the team didn’t meet expectations, but it feels more significant this season.

The reason is that this team is on track to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. While some people, understandably, are still nervous about getting over the finish line to accomplish that goal. My focus has shifted a little to ok, what needs to happen to win a round in the playoffs.

If you’ve watched the NHL playoffs, you know that a power play is essential to have success in a seven-game series. The game is played closer at 5-on-5, and a team has to be effective there (most of the time) to advance through the tournament.

Flawed Plan

Sabres assistant coach Seth Appert takes the brunt of the scrutiny for that unit’s poor performance. As he should be, being responsible for that area of the game. However, Lindy Ruff carries blame in this, too.

I have a quote that some may have missed or didn’t catch at the time, and it’s stuck in my head. You may recall that on January 10th, Alex Lyon joined the Sabres broadcast during the second period while out injured. During a power play stretch, he said the following when asked about what a goaltender focuses on during a power play, in this case, a 5-on-3.

“If I’m scouting myself as the Sabres here, obviously we want to get Tommer and Ras coming downhill with the big shots there.”

Did he say the quiet part out loud? Then again, maybe it’s not the quiet part. It’s obvious what the Sabres’ primary plan has been for years. Feed the puck to Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin for shots. At times, it feels like those two are just passing to each other while the other players on the ice wait for the shot to come.

Dahlin and Thompson are two elite players at their position. Thompson is one of the best shooters and goal scorers in the game at 5-on-5. Notice I said 5-on-5.

A few years ago, Tage had a run on the power play, just hammering goals from the “Ovechkin” spot. Then the league adjusted. The Sabres did not.

Since 2023, among players to play at least 200 minutes on the power play, Thompson is 74th in the NHL in goals per hour. Dahlin is 168th in goals per hour, according to Hockey Stats. That doesn’t scream get those two players the puck as my primary shooting threats.

Yet, that remains the primary plan when you watch this team play, and by the numbers. When you break this season down among skaters to play at least 30 minutes on the power play, Thompson and Dahlin are two of the top three in shot attempts per hour. Josh Norris being second is interesting; we’ll get to why in a minute.

On the total for the season, Thompson and Dahlin take 40% of the shot attempts on the power play. Tage takes 22% and Dahlin 18%. Josh Doan is the next closest at 10%. So, not only do two players who score at a significantly low rate take the majority of the shots, but a poor percentage rate of those shots even hit the net.

As you can see above, according to Hockey Stats, Thompson and Dahlin have less than half of their shot attempts hit the net. The shots are either blocked or miss entirely. You may also have caught that Josh Norris has a team-low, 31% of his shot attempts hit the net. People hope that his return will help them on the man advantage, but I’m not sure about that.

Back to Thompson quickly as the primary shooter to drive the point home. Since 2023, 50% of his shot attempts have hit the net. That ranks him 187th among forwards in the NHL during that time. Dahlin, on the other hand, ranks 16th among all defensemen over the last three years. With Dahlin ranking highly among defenders in primary assists per hour on the man advantage, I’d prefer the puck be on his stick more as a distributor.

The Sabres’ power play is easy to defend most of the time because there are only three places on the ice where the majority of the shots come from, as you can see below in Hockeyviz’s heat map. Those shots come from two or three players who are always standing in those locations.

At the very least, they should try to move the players around more. Take Thompson, for example. Below, you can see that most of his shots come from the spot where he stands most of the time. The two red shapes on that side of the ice show where two of his power play goals have come from. On the opposite side of the ice, he has significantly fewer shots, but the same number of goals, two.

It’s difficult for me to understand why they won’t get back down low more often around the goal line and behind the net. They have such success with it, but refuse to do it. Josh Doan, Zach Benson, and Jason Zucker are three players who can be effective in that area. Below is an example of Doan attacking the net and scoring when he gets the puck low.

Here’s another one of the Doan behind the net feeding Zucker right in front of the net for a goal.

I’m not in the room, but the coaches may be telling the players to get the puck down low more often. The optics would tell a different story. Logically, if the Sabres show different looks consistently, it may force opponents to change their defensive approach, creating more opportunities for Thompson.

Setups

It has become more evident to me that teams are aggressively attacking the player with the puck when they do get control in the offensive zone. Below is a clip from the game against the Los Angeles Kings.

The high forward closes on Dahlin at the point, knowing he’ll likely shoot it. The other forward attacks Ostlund on the wall on the missed shot, and then the defenseman does so again in the corner. You’ll also notice Zucker doesn’t have support on the wall initially because Thompson has to retreat to his “spot” on the ice. This caused him and Doan to be standing in the same position on the ice.

The Montreal Canadiens did the same type of thing against them on Saturday night. As did the Toronto Maple Leafs earlier in the week.

I see it as a sign that teams have scouted and found that the Sabres don’t have an answer for puck movement, which takes advantage of that style. They throw the puck around the wall until a low-percentage shot is taken in desperation.

They’re not terrible at entering the zone with the man advantage and getting control. In All Three Zones’ data, they’re 19th in power play setups.

The main issue is getting a quality look once they establish possession. Entering tonight, the Sabres ranked 18th in power play percentage. They’re 21st in expected goals for on the power play in Hockey Stats’ model. This isn’t the worst power play in the league, but it’s not good enough for where it needs to be. Especially when you consider the scoring and finishing talent they have on the roster.

Data: Hockeyviz and Hockey Stats
Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images
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