If you’re not aware, the Buffalo Sabres will be playing in a new division this season. They’ll still be with the Boston Bruins, but six other clubs will be in the new East Division. Those teams are the Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, and Washington Capitals. 

The Sabres will play only those seven teams in their 56-game schedule for the 2021 season. From year to year, things can change with how teams perform against others. Players move around, aging curves can impact players differently, and new coaches can occur.  

Just because the Sabres may have struggled against these seven teams in the last two years doesn’t mean that they will this season. Having said that, I thought it would be interesting to go through the last two years and break down how the Sabres have played against these teams. 

5v5 Performance

The data I’ll be using going through this is from the last two seasons (18-19 and 19-20). With the Sabres having struggled the last few years they’re going to end up looking poor. It won’t be the case with all teams, but I think there are some interesting data points.

I’ll start by looking at 5 on 5 on-ice shot quality. These metrics are score and venue adjusted from Natural Stat Trick to give us an idea of if the Sabres were truly outclassed or just ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. 

As you can see above, the Sabres have done well against the Devils over the last few years. They’ve given up little quality in those games and generate a good amount of offense. We’re going to see a similar thing with the Devils when we shift into points percentage earned over the last two years.

The Capitals and Penguins are the “high-event” opponents. Which isn’t surprising when you think about games the last few years. Those have been some high-scoring contests and usually are competitive games. Both those clubs have a ton of offense and questions on their blue line. That’ll be the case again this season.

Also, you shouldn’t be surprised to see low-event games against the Islanders and Bruins. The Sabres have really struggled against the Bruins and we’re all well aware of how the Islanders love to lock it down defensively.

The Flyers are on the opposite end of what they have with the Devils. The Sabres have been thoroughly outplayed in games against the Flyers the last two years and it shows here in the data.

Lastly, the Rangers may be the most interesting data point here. They are in the same category as the Flyers in controlling play against the Sabres. However, they have not had a roster that is as talented as what the Flyers put on the ice. This could be one of those situations I talked about initially with a team just having your number.

The Rangers have given up a lot of quality against at 5 on 5 over the last few years, but the Sabres have been unable to take advantage of that. Looking at New York’s roster this season, that defense is going to be an area of concern for them again. The Sabres will need to do a better job taking advantage of that.

Actual Points Earned

Shifting the focus here, the Sabres haven’t had a lot of success against these seven teams in regards to picking up points in the standings.

The Sabres have only picked up more that 50% of the possible points against two teams in this division over the last two years. Those two clubs are the Penguins and Devils. Like the Rangers have had the Sabres number in matchups, the Sabres have picked up points against the Penguins. That’s an interesting development because the Penguins controlled that matchup for a few years before the 2018-19 season.

They’ve been able to pull 50% of the possible points against the Capitals, but for the remainder of the clubs, they’ve only been able to pick up less than 40% of the possible points.

There’s no reason that the Sabres should not be able to compete with the Rangers next season and need to improve upon their recent performance. The Islanders are another team that on paper, the Sabres should be able to compete against. Adding some more offensive talent to the roster could help them break down the stingy defensive system.

The Flyers and Bruins are the two clubs that they’ve struggled the most against and that could continue. The Bruins are going to be without Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to start the season. They’re slated to return in February, but the Sabres may miss a chance to take advantage of that with how the schedule was put together. They don’t face the Bruins until the first week February.

Personally, I’m skeptical of the Flyers being at the top of this division, but they’ve just dominated the Sabres in recent history. It’s hard for me to predict that to change until we see it.

As I said in the beginning things can change from year to year with all of the movement and changes. The Sabres have a legitimate chance, in my opinion, to finish in the top four and be a playoff team. For them to do that, they’ll need to perform better against a few clubs in this division.

Data via: Natural Stat Trick and Hockeyviz.com

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports