We’re now 11 games into the Sam Reinhart at center experiment with the Buffalo Sabres. It has been one of the more interesting storylines to watch as the club has hit a heater under interim head coach Don Granato.

It’s important to note right off the top that we’re dealing with a small sample size here. The good news is we’re likely going to get another 11 games to add to the mix. It’s an interesting path that the Sabres took to get here. They have appeared adamant that they did not see Reinhart as a center with their unwillingness to try it any point during the countless lost seasons.

Out of nowhere, Granato pulls this rabbit out of his hat.

Generating Offense

Not only did Reinhart get placed at center, but he also stepped in as their top-line pivot right out of the gate. They haven’t sheltered him during this 11-game stretch. He has faced top-line and pairing matchups.

Let’s start with the offensive side of the game. There’s no denying that his line is generating the on-ice production of a top line in actual goals and the underlying numbers. According to Natural Stat Trick, Reinhart has the second-highest scored adjusted 5 on 5 shot quality for on the team behind Jeff Skinner. That number varies based on the model you look at. For example, Evolving Hockey has him third behind Skinner and Victor Olofsson. Coincidentally, those are his current linemates.

In actual goal production, he sits third on the team since 3/31 in goals for per 60 minutes behind Olofsson and Dylan Cozens at 5 on 5. Individually, he has nine points in 11 games playing the middle. The good thing that we’re seeing happen with Reinhart is he’s settling into the role of playmaker without Jack Eichel. He’s producing individually and showcasing his talent for creating for others.

In Corey Sznajder’s tracking data he has tracked four games since the coaching change. In three of those four games, Reinhart has been at center. Again small sample, but Reinhart is behind only Cozens in shot assists per 60 minutes at 5 on 5.

Defense

Overall, Reinhart has been close break-even in score-adjusted shot quality at 5 on 5. Once again it’ll vary by model. Natural Stat trick has him at 50% and the twins’ site would have him at 48% after yesterday’s game. Evaluating the club defensively right now is difficult. They’re playing a high-event style of hockey and everyone on the team has had their shot quality against balloon over the last month of the season. In score-adjusted 5 on 5 shot quality against he’s between 2.67 and 2.72 depending on the model. That puts him as roughly the eighth-best forward on the roster in that regard.

The defensive numbers are not great, but you can live with it if he’s still winning the share as he has on most nights. We shouldn’t gloss over these numbers by any means because they can be evaluated relative to the team. What we should note, as I mentioned, that we have a team here shifting into a high-event style and are playing with inferior talent most nights.

We know Reinhart is a good defensive forward. I’m not too worried about that part of the game and that goes for every player on this roster right now. I’m concerned if they’re getting close to breaking even at overall share. Reinhart has shown through the underlying numbers that he can be trusted defensively. You can see in Evolving Hockey’s RAPM model below that he has remained consistent in that regard over this full season.

Spoils of Success

At the end of the day, I don’t think there is much of an argument to be that this hasn’t been a successful venture overall. If this continues down the stretch, it opens a lot of possibilities for the Sabres heading into the offseason.

No, one such possibility isn’t moving Eichel. He remains as the only true top-line center on this team. Reinhart is better suited for a middle-six role at center along with Dylan Cozens. They could conceivably go into next season with a center spine of Eichel, Reinhart, Cozens, and Casey Mittelstadt. In my opinion, they still need to find a checking line center.

What Reinhart being able to play the middle does is open up avenues of lineup and roster construction. They can move Cozens back to the wing next season, but he has shown that playing as a middle-six center at 20-years-old is not too much for him if they want to keep him there.

Mittelstadt could go back to the wing to make room for that checking line center. He was already having success on the wing before he was put back at the pivot. His skill set is not reliant on him being a center. His best asset is his shot and playing on the wing may force him into using it more as opposed to trying to be a line drive at center.

Of course, the Sabres could move Reinhart back to the wing alongside Jack Eichel. However, not only has these 11 games at center shown that he can be a play driver, but he has done it since Eichel’s absence. He has 14 points in 23 games since Eichel’s last game on March 6th. Since the coaching change, he has led the team in scored-adjusted 5 on 5 expected goal share at 53%, according to Evolving Hockey.

Keeping Reinhart at center fills a large void in the roster and allows them to attack upgrading at wing. Which we know is an easier assignment than finding a top-six center to play behind Eichel. This flexibility to move pieces around the lineup going into the offseason is an unexpected gift with the way this team has come together under Granato. It sets Kevyn Adams up for an easier path to improve the roster for next season.

Data via: Corey Sznajder, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockeyviz.com

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images