Sabres Should be Aggressively Shopping Colin Miller

From a wins-and-losses standpoint, the Buffalo Sabres have fallen off the map as of late. For a team that started the year strong (inspiring some fans to wonder if they could be a fringe playoff team), they’ve since meandered back toward where they were projected to land during the preseason.

It’s not all bad, however. Youngsters like Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens continue to make strides in their respective developments, while the Rochester Amerks continue to be catalyzed by their rookie forwards. Still, we’ve been snapped back to reality a bit as the Sabres have won just three times in their last 20 contests.

Personally, it’s inspired me to re-focus on the trade market and reassess value on the team’s expiring assets. With over a dozen pending unrestricted free agents on the ledger, Buffalo should be aggressive in shopping these assets as none of them (save for maybe Mark Pysyk) are likely to figure into Kevyn Adams’ future outlook for his squad.

Defenseman Colin Miller is conceivably the most valuable expiring contract the Sabres can dangle as a trade piece. In unison with the team’s place in the standings, the 29-year-old’s production (both base and underlying) has recently fizzled following an incredible start.

While most “rental trades” occur closer to the NHL Trade Deadline, Adams should begin shopping Miller before his value depreciates any further.

At one point during the Sabres’ 5-1-1 start, Miller was tied for the team scoring lead, posting five points in his first four games. Even as recently as November 22, he and Rasmus Dahlin led all Buffalo blueliners with 11 points in 18 contests. For a player who has averaged about 29 points per season at the NHL level (and 22 points per-82 games as a Sabre), that level of raw scoring production was rather unprecedented for him.

Up-and-Down Start

The most interesting aspect of Miller’s underlying metrics is his performance alongside Jacob Bryson. Before the start of this season, I noticed that the two of them posted solid numbers to close out the 2020-21 campaign (leading me to suggest trying them as a duo to start 2021-22).

Early in the year, their success together continued. Over the first 14 games, they posted an xGF rate of 52.89% as a duo, and Miller carried the second-highest xGF rate among all Sabres defensemen. During the 11 games to follow, however, the Miller-Bryson pair ceased to succeed as their xGF share dropped down to an abysmal 37.10%.

The reason for that is tough to pin down. Aside from a modest decrease in the OZS rate (50.4% over the first 14 games versus 43.48% over the last 11), there isn’t anything I can pinpoint in the data. Using my eyes, it sure looks like Miller’s defensive zone work has diminished as of late while Bryson stopped being as effective in transition. Those two factors combined could certainly lead to a dramatic expected-goal share dip.

Without turning this article into a deep-dive into the success and subsequent failure of that pairing, we’ll simply say that it has occurred in direct conjunction with Miller’s recently plateaued base-scoring totals. Following the aforementioned 11 points in 18 games he produced early on, he hasn’t registered a single point since.

Even with the recent regression, Miller has already matched his scoring total from last season and is on pace for 34 points (which would be the second-highest total of his career). Given what we’ve seen recently, that pace is unlikely to hold.

Just look at his GF versus xGF disparity this season.

That pace was never built to last. For that reason, it’s time for the Sabres to try and capitalize on his value before it’s too late. Either way, dealing with him now would require an interested buyer. So, which teams in the NHL could conceivably be in the market for a second/third-pairing right-handed defenseman?

Potential Buyers

In reviewing the defensive depth and salary cap situation for every team in the league, I narrowed the list of potentially interested parties down to four teams. Right off the bat, I eliminated any team that isn’t firmly in playoff contention (because why would they buy now on an expiring rental like Miller?). Then I narrowed the list down further based on how badly each contending team needs help on defense (primarily on the right side).

Three of the clubs on my list would need to send some salary back the other way, even if the Sabres were to retain half of Miller’s $3.875 million cap hit. Below I’ve listed each potential buyer in order of how aggressively they should be looking for help at RHD, starting from least to most. Then I threw in a hypothetical trade for each theoretical suitor because it’s fun and I felt like it.

Suitor #1 – Calgary Flames

Need for Defensive Help: Moderate

Cap Situation: Poor ($885,000 in cap space)

The Flames are in an interesting situation on defense. Though they already have four right-shot defensemen in their lineup, two of them are notoriously shaky analytics entities in Erik Gudbranson and Michael Stone. An upgrade on their third-pairing would make some sense given their lack of reliable depth.

Even if you look at the Flames’ rather formidable blue line at the AHL level, nearly every one of their promotable pieces is left-shot defenders. The only thing the Flames have going for them is the fact that they’re one of the best xGA teams in the NHL (currently ranked second in the NHL with an xGA/60 rate of 2.15).

That said, they’re one injury away from having two of the worst defensemen in the league manning two-thirds of their right side. Of the 584 defensemen to log at least 300 even-strength minutes over the last three years, Gudbranson ranks 514^th with an xGF rate of 44.42%. Stone has fared even worse, ranking 534^th with his mark of 43.29%

Calgary Receives: Colin Miller (50% retained)

Buffalo Receives: Eric Gudbransson, Calgary’s 2^nd-round pick in 2022, Calgary’s 5^th-round pick 2023

Given Calgary’s cap situation, the Sabres would need to take some money back (even if they retain money on Miller’s deal) in the form of a defenseman. Gudbranson has one year left remaining on his current $1.95 million AAV contract. He’s the perfect fit to facilitate this deal in what is largely a cap-strapped league.

Suitor #2 – Nashville Predators

Need for Defensive Help: Moderate

Cap Situation: Outstanding ($14.5 million in cap space)

This one is a bit of a wild-card I threw in here. Similar to Calgary, the Predators are doing a great job at preventing high-danger chances against this season. That being said, they too are pushing their limits when it comes to depth on the right side of their blueline.

The disparity of talent on the left side of the defense versus the right is rather comical in this case. Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Mark Borowiecki man the left, while Philippe Myers, Dante Fabbro, and Matthew Benning manage the right.

As the only team on the list who could absorb Miller’s cap hit without the Sabres retaining salary, I thought they would make an interesting candidate.

Nashville Receives: Colin Miller (no salary retained), Arttu Ruotsalainen

Buffalo Receives: Yakov Trenin, 2023 3rd-round pick

I tried to mix things up a little bit in terms of trade details here. Yakov Trenin is a 24-year-old forward who has posted outstanding defensive impacts at the NHL level. Meanwhile, Ruotsalainen has offensive prowess but seems to have fallen out of favor a bit under Don Granato. Both seem like good “change of scenery” candidates to include in this deal

Because Trenin is a little more valuable than Ruotsalainen right now, the draft pick compensation coming back is a little more modest, especially considering that the Sabres wouldn’t be retaining any salary in this case.

Suitor #3 – Edmonton Oilers

Need for Defensive Help: High

Cap Situation: Sub-Optimal ($900,000 in cap space)

This one was trickier than it initially appeared on paper. Edmonton has very limited cap flexibility, and a lot of money already invested on the blue line (mostly bad money, but money all the same). Last week, Ken Holland expressed defensive reinforcements as a team need. He’d be hard-pressed to find a more readily-available option than Miller.

Unfortunately, the Oilers don’t have a lot of attractive futures to send back. Their second and third-round picks are locked down as they can be impacted by the conditions established in the trade that sent Duncan Keith to Edmonton. They’d need to be a bit more aggressive than the other potential buyers, all of whom have futures to spare.

Edmonton Receives: Colin Miller (50% retained)

Buffalo Receives: Kyle Turris, Conditional 2023 1^st-round pick

Turris is a pending UFA with a salary cap hit of $1.65 million this season. He’s beyond useless as an NHL entity at this point, but the Oilers need a lot of help to make the money work here. Due to the Oilers’ lack of futures (both in the form of prospects and draft picks), I decided to get creative.

The 2023 1^st round pick is conditional on the Oilers making the second round of the playoffs this season. If they do not, they can choose to push that pick to 2024. Should they choose to delay the pick, however (or if they choose to re-sign Miller), they must forfeit an additional fourth-round selection to Buffalo.

Suitor #4 – Los Angeles Kings

Need for Defensive Help: High

Cap Situation: Sub-Optimal ($986,000 in cap space)

We’re just past the quarter mark of the 2021-22 campaign and the Kings have already dealt with a rash of injuries on their blueline. It’s to the point where they had to re-claim Christian Wolanin off the waiver wire from Buffalo.

Simply put, their blueline is devoid of depth. They took another hit two days ago when veteran defenseman, Alex Edler was injured against the Minnesota Wild, and subsequently placed on injured reserve.

The Kings are right in the thick of competing in a relatively weak Pacific Division. If the Sabres were to take advantage of a team looking to add immediate help on the blue line, Los Angeles might be their best bet. Unlike the Flames, the Kings have struggled to prevent changes against this season. Their team xGA/60 of 2.53 ranks 20th in the league, so the lack of depth is certainly having an impact.

Los Angeles Receives: Colin Miller (50% retained)

Buffalo Receives: Trevor Moore, Pittsburgh’s 3rd-round pick in 2022, Los Angeles’ 3rd-round pick in 2023

Again, Moore represents a “cap dump” of sorts, but unlike Gudbranson, he still has some value. He’s also locked into a reasonable $1.875 million AAV contract through next season.

At 26 years old, that’s not a bad depth piece for a rebuilding Sabres team. He’s nothing special, but there are worse players to acquire as a “cap dump”. Due to the urgency of need here, I waffled as to whether or not to make the 2023 draft pick a second rather than a third, but it’s semantics.

Closing Thoughts

Some of these projected trades might seem modest in terms of the return coming back to Buffalo. The offseason market on right-handed defensemen has clouded expectations to a degree. It must be understood that a midseason trade for an expiring entity is not the same as a deal conducted in the offseason.

Teams simply don’t have the same financial or roster flexibility. As for the Sabres, this is the perfect time to get a deal worked out. Not only is Miller’s value set to depreciate (even more than it already has) as time marches on, but Mattias Samuelsson is currently tearing up the AHL with 11 points in 12 games to start the season.

He’s certainly ready to make the jump to the NHL, but there are simply too many veteran assets standing in his way. Trading Miller now not only capitalizes on his current point trajectory but also opens a spot for one of the organization’s more promising prospects to start gaining NHL experience.