It’s not a stretch to say that Tage Thompson being moved to center is a surprise, but it seems Don Granato is looking to move forward with the experiment to begin the season. And after “huh, interesting,” I feel indifferent to the move, so let’s think out loud.

Roster Context: Going to use Lance’s lines tweet from Tuesday (10/12) for reference:

So that fourth line is probably not being touched for the first part of the season. It’ll probably be Eakin’s job to center the two alternate captains until Ruotsalainen outplays Eakin and takes his place on that line (or Asplund does and Ruotsalainen joins the Thompson line), so with that, Tage will likely be at center until line shuffling happens with injuries and so on and we can proceed to imagine Tage centering Asplund and Olofsson. This is a line that I imagine has visions of including a Jack Eichel trade return piece, but here we are and that has yet to happen, which makes it more of a better time than any to test out the experiment. 

There won’t be a worry about getting shots off with this lineup, as both Thompson and Olofsson aren’t strangers to shooting and Asplund has put together a nice body of work of generating shot opportunities in front of the net, so that logic would suggest that the three can put together a good shot profile with whatever d-pair that joins them.

The Shots are good, but…

There are two questions to parse out for this trio, but since I’ll be using Corey’s manual tracking data to assist in finding a direction towards answers. (And as always sign up for Corey’s Patreon because he’s doing wonders in teaching more about the game outside of shot information).

First question: Is the defense going to generate all the shot assists? Thompson ranked in the 11th percentile in generating shot assists, or Primary Setups as Corey defines them – An estimated 8 of every 9 NHL players in 2021 were better at setting up shooters than Thompson. Asplund’s shot assist volume per 60 has been low as well with an estimated ranking in the 22nd percentile. Olofsson was above average in generating shot assists last season, but with his calling card being his shot, I’d prefer he be playing with linemates who set him up consistently. As I alluded to with the question itself, the defense will likely play a big role in setting the forwards up for shots with that lineup when the puck is settled in the offensive zone. In transition, however, with Thompson at center, there’s a fair implication that a lot of their opportunities will involve him shooting after entering or receiving the first in-zone pass. Which, considering his shot per 60 numbers in games Corey tracked place him above the 98th percentile in volume, is probably expected.

Speaking of transition, that’s the second question: How are they entering the zone? From the first look at the charts, it looks like it likely will be anyone but Thompson and be done with control. Neither Asplund nor Oloffson have carried the load of entries in the past, but I’d anticipate the team feels assured that they can do it, or at least split the reps with the defense; just while not being anticipated to pass to gain the zone.

Early Returns

It’s too early for transition data, but we have the shot data for the first two games to get an idea of how it’s going. And through two games, it’s going well so far based on what Natural Stat Trick and Moneypuck provide. 

Game 1 vs Montreal

Natural Stat Trick 

Moneypuck

Game 2 vs Arizona

Natural Stat Trick

Moneypuck

Okay so let’s not bury the lede here: 15-0 in shot attempts on Saturday. I don’t care who the opponent was: That’s phenomenal. While nothing about this sample is definitive of what is to come the rest of the season, as long as the results continue to be positive, there’s not a reason to break this line-up. It appears Granato is also attempting to keep this line’s zone starts to the offensive zone, as 10 of their 15 zone starts have been in the offensive zone, so that may be a sign of helping Thompson ease into the position a little bit. 

Speaking of Thompson, two games on 5v5 shot data don’t show too much, but last season saw shot volume at its highest in front of the net, so as long as his impact continues to center around shots in front of the net, and he continues to hover around 50% or higher, AND now with Mittelstadt hurt, I don’t see a reason to move Thompson back to the wing

That’s all for now. Thanks for reading as always!

Photo Credit:

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images

Data via: Corey Sznajder and Micah McCurdy