We’ll start by acknowledging the fact that reading into underlying metrics after just three games is a foolhardy endeavor (assuming you’re looking to glean something of value). That being said, analytics in very small samples are often wild (and frankly, hilarious). This is especially the case for the currently undefeated Buffalo Sabres.

Don Granato has the team firing on all cylinders out of the gate, but a lot of the early returns probably aren’t sustainable. That’s not to say that the Sabres are due for freefall in their underlying numbers, but the initial metrics are dramatic. A regression of some sort (severity pending) is certain to take place as the season marches on.

Still, the Sabres have looked outstanding in the early going, and their all-around team success has produced a handful of unlikely analytics darlings to start the year. With this in mind, let’s try to have a little fun and look at some wacky charts following 185-straight minutes of utter domination thus far by the blue-and-gold.

Team Results

We’ll start by examining overall team data before we dive into the individual standouts. Currently, the Sabres rank 23^rd in the NHL in xGF/60 (2.03) and 2^nd in xGA/60 (1.35). Again, it’s extremely early, but this would represent a stark contrast from what the Sabres produced under Granato during his 28-game tenure to close out the 2020-21 season.

During that stretch last year, the Sabres ranked 22nd in the NHL in xGF/60 (2.14) and 28th in xGA/60 (2.66). This will be interesting to keep an eye on as the year marches on. For now, the coaching staff seems to have found some balance in their high-event approach.  

Overall the team ranks fourth in the league with an overall xGF rate of 60.17%. Their team Corsi ratio of 57.32% also ranks fourth. For now, Buffalo doesn’t appear to be overly hindered by the loss of top-six personnel on offense (namely, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart). On the other end, improvements made on the blue line (both in the form of additions, and subtractions) this summer seem to have created an immediate positive impact.

Perfect Pairings

Speaking of the Sabres’ defense, all three of Granato’s initial pairings (Henri Jokiharju’s injury notwithstanding) have meshed quite nicely, producing outstanding impacts thus far. At the top, Rasmus Dahlin and Will Butcher pairing have done a great job helping create offense with an on-ice xGF/60 rate of 2.94. Interestingly, Butcher’s inclusion in the defensive top-six has been a significant one, as he currently leads all Sabres defenders with an xGF percentage of 71.13.

The Jacob Bryson and Colin Miller tandem has posted incredible defensive numbers (I referenced their strong results as a pairing in my “Expected Development” article highlighting Bryson last month). In watching them play, their ability to effectively exit the zone with control has stood out to me. Miller has done a good job retrieving possession in the defensive zone, and Bryson has stood out in taking said retrievals and turning them into effective transitions.

Rounding out the group is perhaps the most surprising duo in Robert Hagg and Mark Pysyk. While Pysyk has a history of posting fantastic underlying metrics, the same cannot be said for Hagg. Since 2017, Pysyk ranks 27th in relative xG (0.14) among defenseman who has logged at least 3,000 even-strength minutes. Hagg holds the fourth-lowest mark (-0.28) of the 141 blueliners who meet that criteria.

Either way, it seems to be working nicely so far and Granato is expected to roll these same three pairings out against a tough Boston Bruins team this Friday.

The Asplund-Thompson-Olofsson Line

Just like everyone drew it up, Tage Thompson has made a seamless transition to the center position thus far. After struggling on the wing for virtually his entire career to date, the decision to move to the middle left a lot of fans scratching their heads. Positionally speaking, he’s arguably been the Sabres’ biggest shooting threat in the early-going (our very own Eddy Tabone examined Thompson’s strong start yesterday).

Through three games, the 23-year-old has been outstanding in that spot. His xGF rate of 75.09 ranks second on the team, falling one-hundredth of a percent short of his linemate Rasmus Asplund. The Asplund, Thompson, and Victor Olofsson trio leads the Sabres in pretty much every offensive category, including an insane xGF rate of 81.17% as a group.

It’s not a stretch to say that this has been the Sabres’ best line in each of their first three contests. It will be interesting to see to what extent this success can be maintained. Thompson and Olofsson have both struggled historically at five-on-five. Hopefully, this is a sign of sustained growth rather than a blip on the radar.

Kyle Okposo, Time Lord

What has gotten into Kyle Okposo? The 33-year-old certainly looks reinvigorated in the early-going, and there is a strong argument that he has been the team’s most valuable player to start the season.

We’ve known for a few years that Okposo is a strong defensive forward, but it has been his offensive impact that has left something to be desired for a player making $6 million AAV. So far this year, his defensive metrics have been unreal, and he’s produced some offense to go with it.

Despite currently holding an OZS rate of 37.5% (which, if it were to hold, would be the lowest of his career), his line has completely extinguished opposing offenses. Part of that has to do with Okposo’s high-energy presence and how well his line has assisted in exiting the defensive zone and establishing the counter-rush. He leads all Sabres with an on-ice xGA/60 rate of 0.64.

Okposo has also been one of the Sabres’ most dangerous and effective power-play entities on a team that is converting man-advantage at a 36.4% rate.

Zemgus Girgensons and Cody Eakin (Okposo’s linemates) deserve a tip of the cap here too. Girgensons is playing some of his best hockey after spending a year sidelined with a severe hamstring injury. At the moment, he leads the team with four points and holds an xGF rate of 71.14%.

A strong case could have been made last season that Eakin was the worst player in the NHL. He has managed to keep pace with his linemates early on and could turn himself into a tradeable asset if he keeps it up.

Craig Anderson, also a Time Lord

How about those goalies, eh? Specifically, Craig Anderson, who may or may not have appeared in the first game of ice hockey ever played. The 40-year-old looks like he too has discovered the fountain of youth. As one of the three oldest players in the league (and the oldest goaltender), he has got things started with a bang.

As the starter in two of the Sabres’ three games so far, his save percentage of 95.4 ranks fourth in the NHL among netminders with two or more starts. His GSAx rate of 0.89 ranks him 16^th under the same criteria. Not bad for an old guy.

Craig Anderson saves on the PK #LetsGoBuffalo #Canucks pic.twitter.com/CDrH7fizjr

— Buffalo Hockey Moments (@SabresPlays) October 20, 2021

In Dustin Tokarski’s lone start, he too put on a strong display, stopping 20 of the 21 shots he faced against the Arizona Coyotes. We knew goaltending would be a big factor in where the team ultimately finished this season. Hopefully, these two can keep it up (to a reasonable degree).

Looking Ahead

I’ll reiterate – analytics in a small sample should not be taken at face value. Underlying stats in a three-game span should be consumed with a Tage Thompson-sized grain of salt. That being said, the first week of the season has been a blast, and it has resulted in some extremely dramatic advanced stats.

The idea of this piece was just to have a little fun and identify a few particularly interesting things to keep an eye on as the season progresses. There are some potentially intriguing storylines here, but the key will be how they hold up over a longer span, against tougher competition.

An undefeated start is great and all, but things should level out a little bit since Buffalo doesn’t get to spend the year playing Montreal, Arizona, and Vancouver on an infinite loop.

Advanced Stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Chad DeDominicis

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports