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Value Shopping: Targeting untapped potential

Various platforms, including this site, have outlined the salary cap situation the Buffalo Sabres are looking at in the offseason. One of the things I believe that they need to prioritize is finding players that can be an impact on a value contract.

The Sabres don’t have a lot of young talent in the system that is on track to crack the lineup soon. Dylan Cozens is the player at the top of the list, but others like Rasmus Asplund, Casey Mittelstadt, and Tage Thompson are question marks.

This offseason there could be a few players available that can fit into this category for the Sabres. Jason Botterill took this approach last summer when he acquired Henri Jokiharju. That worked out well and he needs to explore going down that road again.

So, let’s explore a few players they could look into acquiring this year.

Henrik Borgstrom

Up first is Florida Panthers center, Henrik Borgstrom. The 22-year-old was a promising prospect a few years ago out of the University of Denver. He was selected 23rd overall by the Panthers in the 2016 draft.

After an average rookie season, the Panthers placed Borgstrom in the AHL for the majority of this past season. The Finnish forward regressed this season and may not be happy with his situation in Florida. There was a report a week ago that he was exploring returning to Finland to play for Jokerit of the KHL. However, according to Elliotte Friedman, his agent stated that Borgstrom’s priority is to play in the NHL next season.

The Sabres are slim at depth down the middle in the organization and if a young player with potential is available at that position they should be exploring that option. Borgstrom would be a restricted-free-agent at the end of the season and his next contract would come relatively cheap. The contract projection via Evolving Hockey is a two-year deal with a cap hit of $838k.

As you can see in Micah’s impact chart above, Borgstrom was average in all areas of his game when he was in the NHL. He still has potential that should intrigue a lot of teams if the Panthers are interested in moving on from him.

Tyson Jost

Another 2016 first-round pick that hasn’t reached his potential yet is Tyson Jost. The Avalanche selected Jost 10th overall that year. His career has gone a similar path to that of Mittelstadt. After an underwhelming rookie season and a poor start in year two, he was demoted to the AHL.

The interesting part is that although his actual production doesn’t show an improvement, he took a step in the right direction this past season in his on-ice impact. He fought some bad luck in goal scoring this season by shooting 1.4 goals below replacement, according to Moneypuck. At 5 on 5, Moneypuck had Jost tied for the lead on the Avalanche in shot quality (expected goals per 60 minutes).

Looking into his microstats, you can see the positive impact he had on the Avalanche offensively. He was one of the better forwards on the team in primary shot contributions, which is a good stat to look when attempting to predict future production.

Jost is a non-arbitration eligible restricted-free-agent in the offseason and the Avalanche could look to move him to acquire a piece to help them continue to build a Stanley Cup contender. It’s also possible the savvy Avalance front office is aware of his improvement and wouldn’t be willing to place him on the market.

Sam Bennett

The last player I’m going to highlight is the other Sam that was selected in the top five of the 2014 NHL Draft. That player is Calgary Flames forward, Sam Bennett. Unlike the three players selected ahead of him, Bennett has failed to reach his potential with the Flames and his name has been in the rumor mill the last two years.

After this season, he has one more year remaining on his contract that carries a cap hit of $2.55 million. The Flames need to flip their depth and find some talent on their blue with a handful of players scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency. They may use Bennett as a bargaining chip and the Sabes have some defenders they’d be open to moving.

The 23-year-old hasn’t been anything more than replacement-level throughout his entire career, as you can see above. However, I wonder if he hasn’t been given the opportunity to perform better offensively. His most common linemates the past two seasons have been Derek Ryan, Tobias Rieder, Milan Lucic, Mark Jankowski, and Mikael Backlund, according to Evolving Hockey.

It’s possible that in the right situation he can find that offensive potential that made him a top-five pick a few years ago. He grades out as a slightly positive offensive player in Micah’s new model and he’s an interesting player to dive into in terms of his offense over the last few years.

He’s the type of player that gets quality scoring opportunities but fails to convert on them. He’s been top three on the Flames in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 in each of the last three years, according to Moneypuck. That site also has him shooting below expected in two of the last three years. Here’s how that breaks down:

  • 2019-20: 0
  • 2018-19: -4.3
  • 2017-18: -4.9

You have to wonder if this is a case of bad luck or a scenario in which he doesn’t have the shooting talent to score consistently. This three trend probably indicates that it’s more of a shooting talent issue, but he’s still generating quality offense for his team when he’s on the ice.

At the right price, Bennett can be a nice buy-low option for a team looking to find untapped potential on a decent contract.

Honorable Mentions

These three are not the only players that the Sabres could explore that fall into this category. Pavel Zacha of the New Jersey Devils is another. A follower of mine, Jamie (@VonsabreC), has been on the Zacha train. Admittedly, it’s not one of my favorite ideas, but Jamie makes some good points him being a defensive centerman that could potentially fill the role of Johan Larsson if he doesn’t return to the Sabres.

On the blue line, Olli Juolevi of the Vancouver Canucks is a player they could explore that follows the path of the Jokiharju trade last season. He was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft and not come close to meeting the expectations the Canucks had for him. He’s battled some injuries, but at only 22-years-old he could be worth a flyer if the Sabres make other moves on the blue line to create some space.

There are always players out there that teams fail to give proper opportunities to succeed and could excel in a new situation. The Sabres need to find some of these players to fill the gaps on the roster, but take up minimal space on the salary cap as a cost-controlled asset. This is critical with the salary cap situation the team will be facing in the next few years.

Data via: Moneypuck, Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, Cap Friendly, and Rank King App

2 thoughts on “Value Shopping: Targeting untapped potential

  1. Good stuff! Love the idea of bringing Bennett and his sandpaper to the Sabres. Wish I had more faith in Botz to make the kind of smart, bold moves that are required

    Great site. Congrats!

  2. ” flip their depth and find some talent on their blue with a handful of players …”
    Huh?

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