Fast-forward to the first game of the 2020-21 NHL season (whatever month that ends up being). The offseason has come and gone, and for fans of the Buffalo Sabres, their nightmare has come true – Jason Botterill has once again failed to find a second-line center.

Couldn’t happen again, right? Well, if the NHL Draft does indeed take place in June (and player-centric deals can’t be made on the draft floor), this scenario becomes a possibility, even if you ignore Botterill’s past history of failing to address the position.

So, the public address announcer makes his way through introductions, and he finally calls out the name of your new second-line pivot, 19-year-old Dylan Cozens. Now, this is scary for a couple of reasons. For starters, the Casey Mittelstadt experiment is still fresh in everyone’s mind. After not only failing to shelter his ice time, Phil Housley doubled-down on the issue by saddling the former eighth-overall pick with a rotation of lackluster wingmen.

For those who need a refresher, Mittelstadt’s rookie campaign was set up for disaster from the start. Though his individual play left a lot to be desired, having Tage Thompson and Kyle Okposo as two of your three most consistent wingers on the second line, definitely didn’t help matters.

Mittelstadt’s individual xGF rate of 44.08-percent was the third-lowest mark among Sabres forwards (who played in more than 20 games) in 2018-19. His Corsi-for percentage of 47.91 was fourth-worst under the same criteria. At the end of the day, he was sent to the AHL (not nearly soon enough, mind you) where he’s done fine, all things considered.

If for some reason the organization decides to try and repeat a similar approach (while obviously expecting different results), is there any imaginable way to give Cozens the tools to succeed while still finding some semblance of roster optimization? Alternatively, is there a player on the current roster the coaching staff could try at 2C in lieu of Cozens while gets accustomed to the NHL?

We’ll start by taking a look at who the Sabres could put alongside him to try and help mitigate the severity of his adjustment to the professional ranks. Despite once again failing to obtain another line-driving centerman in this scenario, we’ll give Botterill a little help and assume he did, however, manage to add a talented winger to the top-six. Jesper Fast seems to be a popular name right now, so for argument’s sake, let’s say it’s him.

Could Buffalo find success with a top-six that looks something like this?

Perhaps. It’s tough to imagine a better pair of wingers for a teenage center to grow alongside. Still, with that level of talent on either side of him, Cozens would have a lot of ice time and the responsibility that goes with it. That would be a tall task in his first year regardless of having Skinner and Reinhart to help “drive the line”, so to speak.

For the optimist in all of us, we should recognize the fact that while their age, position, and draft pedigree are all comparable, Cozens and Mittelstadt are not the same player. When looking at their respective NHLe metrics, Cozens superior rate of production is evident.

In 34 games as a freshman with the University of Minnesota, Mittelstadt posted 30 points. An impressive showing at the World Junior Championship definitely boosted his stock, but based on his collegiate numbers that year, his NHLe mark stood at just 24 points over an 82-game season.

Cozens’ 85 points in 51 games this season with the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL puts his NHLe mark around 41 points. That’s significant, and if you combine his superior production rate as a D+1 prospect along with a far better set of wingers, perhaps he could succeed in short order.

Still, he shouldn’t have to. With trade assets like Rasmus Ristolainen and Brandon Montour on the blue line, there is no excuse for Botterill to fail to put a fair package together to avoid gambling with another promising teenage player.

Now, let’s get weird.

We have already heard the strong arguments to switch Sam Reinhart back to center (something the organization appears to have no interest in trying), but is there another roster incumbent who could fill in as a top-six center? Last season, Ralph Krueger experimented with Marcus Johansson in that spot (a player who hilariously hadn’t served in that role in nearly eight seasons), which, as many predicted, worked out poorly. Beyond that, the Sabres do possess one other forward who happens to be a possession monster, and who also posted outstanding metrics in a defensive role for the past two seasons.

Johan Larsson is a polarizing player among Sabres fans. Many in the analytics community love what he brings, and feel he could be similarly effective in a revised role. Others believe Botterill should let him hit the unrestricted free agent market this summer.

Last season, Larsson did experience a brief stint alongside Skinner (95:48 to be exact), and the two exhibited some success, posting a relative Corsi of 2.04, and a relative xG rate of 9.69-percent. Again, the sample size is small, but perhaps we’ve been too quick to conclude that Larsson can only be successful in a shutdown role. He’s certainly excelled in a defensive-zone heavy start-rate, but as one of the best possession forwards on the team, perhaps his defensive capability could help make a player like Skinner even more effective long-term.

As a unit, the line of Larsson, Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons was the best trio on the team in 2019-20, not only in terms of xGA, but xGF as well (sample size of over 100 minutes at even-strength). That’s impressive, considering their OZS rate of 35.86-percent. What they lacked was a finisher, but the offensive opportunities (and by extension, prolonged zone-possession time) were certainly there.

Is it a better option than forcing Cozens into that role right out of the gate? Maybe. It would at least be worth a shot, but to put it bluntly, this isn’t a scenario the coaching staff should have to consider.

Botterill’s first priority this offseason needs to be the acquisition of a bonafide second-line center. Nothing about Cozens’ superior D+1 production, or Larsson’s versatility changes that. Whether he views things the same way remains to be seen.

Corsi, xG and Linemate Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Line and Pairing xG Chart courtesy of Charting Hockey

RAPM Chart courtesy of Evolving Hockey

NHLe Metrics courtesy of Dobber Sports