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Catching up on the Buffalo Sabres 2022-23 season

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

The Buffalo Bills season came to an end yesterday with a thud. It was a disappointing end to what seemed like a team of destiny, but the good news is there is another good story to cling to. The Buffalo Sabres are fun and frankly a good hockey club this season.

In the past the Sabres have been out of any actual playoff race when the NFL season ends, but not this time. The city can funnel all its energy into a hockey club that deserves support.

I know not everyone follows the team as closely as we do during the football season. For some, hockey is their secondary sport of choice, and they won’t get into it until the Bills are out. Well, today’s piece is for you. I’m going to catch you up on what you missed during the first half of the season so you’re ready to jump on the train.

Playoff Race

Let’s start with the main attraction of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres enter play tonight five points out of the final wild-card spot in the East. They’re five points behind the Pittsburgh Penguins with one game in hand. They’re seven points back of the Washington Capitals, who occupy the first wild-card spot. However, the Sabres currently hold four games in hand on them.

Here is how the standings look in the East for the wild-car picture:

  1. Washington Capitals – 56 pts.
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins – 54 pts.
  3. Florida Panthers – 51 pts.
  4. New York Islanders – 51 pts.
  5. Buffalo Sabres – 49 pts.

While the Sabres are currently behind the Panthers and Islanders from a points perspective, that’s not the case if we strictly look at point percentages since the Sabres have games in hand on all of these teams. Here is how the standings look by points percentages:

  1. Pittsburgh Penguins – .587
  2. Washington Capitals – .571
  3. Buffalo Sabres – .544
  4. Florida Panthers – .531
  5. New York Islanders – .531

They’re right in the middle of the race with 37 games to go. The current pace for the final spot in the East is 94 points, which would mean the Sabres need 45 points over their last 37 games. The math on that is they would need to get 61% of their remaining possible points. It’s a big ask, but not out of the realm of possibilities. If we cheat and take out the eight-game losing streak, they’ve earned 66% of their points in the other 37 games.

Goals

We know that the Bills score points in bunches. Well, so do the Sabres.

They enter play tonight fifth in the league in scoring at 5 on 5 and first in the NHL in all situations. The catch, however, is they give up a lot of goals too. They’re 24th in goals allowed at on 5 on 5 and in all situations. That is what we call fun, high-event hockey.

Overall, they’re a break-even expected goal share team (49.5%) at 5 on 5 in Evolving Hockey’s model. That’s a good improvement over last season and why they’re in the playoff mix.

Back to scoring, the Sabres have five players on pace for over 30 goals this season:

  • Tage Thompson – 58 goals (32 goals in 45 games currently)
  • Alex Tuch – 40 goals (22 goals in 45 games)
  • Victor Olofsson – 38 goals (21 goals in 45 games)
  • Jeff Skinner – 35 goals (19 goals in 42 games)
  • Dylan Cozens – 29 goals (16 goals in 45 games)

Tage Thompson is their representative this year at the NHL All-Star game. The Sabres’ top-line center has been special this year. Almost all of his goals have been highlight-reel with his stick-handling ability or booming shot.

Oh by the way, Rasmus Dahlin is having a Norris Trophy type season and is on pace for 95 points. He has arrived as the player we all expected when they picked him first overall in 2018.

The Kids are Alright

But wait…there’s more! The Sabres are the youngest team in the NHL and their young players are making an impact this season. Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka were on fire a month ago, but have cooled off as of late in terms of production. However, they continue to play at a high level for players of their age.

Owen Power doesn’t have the production that will make you say “wow”, but his underlying numbers are some of the best we’ve seen from a defenseman at his age. He’s a force in the offensive zone with size and vision. His defensive game could use some work, but that’s to be expected for players of his age.

Peyton Krebs is also trending upward in the last month of the season. He’s playing fourth-line center between Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons. He’s one of the Sabres’ best defensive players this year and his offensive talent is starting to show up now.

The Goalies!

The most interesting thing going on with the Sabres right now may be their current goaltender situation. They’re currently carrying three goalies on the roster, which you don’t see often. The youngster, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, is the number one goaltender at this point. He has his ups and downs throughout a game, but he has earned the job with his ability to make the big saves when it matters.

Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie rotate in as the backup goaltenders as of now. We’ll see how Kevyn Adams and Don Granato handle this situation as it evolves over the next few weeks to months. It’s not ideal to use up three roster spots on goaltenders.

Tyson Jost

Get familiar with the name Tyson Jost. The Sabres acquired him on waivers from the Minnesota Wild in the middle of November. He was selected 10th overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2016 NHL Draft. The 24-year-old was unable to carve out a spot with the Avalanche or Wild. It has been a different story with the Sabres.

He has been an excellent addition as their third center, playing between Casey Mittelstadt and Victor Olofsson. You could argue that his line is the one that is going the best right now for the Sabres. All three players feed off each other well and have embraced their roles on the team.

Jost is creating some offense, playing very well defensively, and is getting that line to convert chances into goals. A great move by Adams and his front office staff.

That should get you pretty much caught up with everything you need to know about what is happening with the Sabres. They’re young, score a lot, and at times are frustratingly inconsistent due to their age. This is the first time in a while that I genuinely believe this club is on the correct path back to relevancy in the NHL.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Micah McCurdy
Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images
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