In this week’s episode on the Expected Buffalo Podcast, defensive forwards (and their perceived value) came up as one of the topics. Our conversation on the subject inspired me to dive into the numbers, and illustrate how the Buffalo Sabres’ defensive wingers have effectively provided “behind the scenes” value this season.

I wanted to hone in on a few specific areas. First, a broad-spectrum look at how the Sabres use these assets. Then, an examination of how much the defensive forwards (namely, on the wing) have impacted their linemates’ expected-goal share. Lastly, and most interestingly, I wanted to judge whether the Sabres have been optimally using these entities.

There is an intriguing debate to be had here as it pertains to not only impact but usage philosophy, especially on a team full of young offensive entities.

Advanced Stats Flyover

Individually speaking, the best defensive forwards on the team are near the top of the Sabres’ overall xGF list this season. Rasmus Asplund and Zemgus Girgensons rank second and third, respectively behind Alex Tuch. They also lead the team in even-strength defensive WAR. Kyle Okposo is closer to the middle, but that is a more recent development as his metrics have taken a slight dip following an incredible start to the season.

In terms of zone deployment, Girgensons has one of the more lopsided metrics with an OZS rate of just over 38% on the year. Okposo and Asplund have experienced a more even deployment setup at 47.23% and 49.40%, respectively.

To an outside observer (i.e. someone who doesn’t watch this team regularly), these deployment settings might indicate the type of linemate(s) these players are being used to compliment. While Girgensons is utilized primarily in a defensive shutdown role (indicating that he doesn’t get a lot of ice time with offensively talented linemates), Asplund and Okposo seem to get a healthier situational mix.

Linemate Impacts

It’s tough to truly understand what this indicates unless you look at their most common linemates. The question that must be asked is – are these defensively-inclined forward assets playing together on a line, or are they producing these results independent of one another?

In the Sabres’ case, it’s a mix of both. The degree of that “mix” depends on the player in question. We’ll start with Girgensons, who has played alongside a pretty consistent slate of linemates this season. The most common of whom happen to be Okposo.

When paired together on a line, Girgensons and Okposo have fared well, posting an xGF rate of 50.52% on the year. This mark is even more impressive when you consider the fact that over 97 of the 208 minutes they’ve spent together (roughly 46.6% of their TOI) has been spent with Cody Eakin as their centerman.

For those who are unaware, Eakin has been one of the least effective forwards on the team this season. Through 44 games, he holds an xGF rate of 40.65%. When skating alongside both Okposo and Girgensons, however, that rate jumps immensely, up to 50.53%.

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, Girgensons and Okposo’s xGF rate both with and without Eakin is virtually identical. This is a good indication that when paired together, they can successfully drive play, independent of who is skating down the middle.

Then you have Asplund, who has spent virtually zero time with Girgensons and Okposo simultaneously. Though he has skated with each of them individually, his most common linemates have been of the offensive variety.

Both Tage Thompson and Victor Olofsson have skated alongside Asplund for around 200 even-strength minutes in 2021-22. Both players have seen immediate underlying benefits from his presence. Each of their respective xGF marks have experienced a near 13% increase with Asplund (96 even-strength minutes as a trio).

Now that Alex Tuch is in the fold, Asplund’s specialties are no longer required next to Thompson. Tuch does a lot of the same things and helps Thompson and Jeff Skinner create more offensively. Asplund is, however, serving in a similar role next to another young center (which we’ll expand on shortly) so his usage, in theory, hasn’t changed in that regard.

Is It Working?

So, what does this tell us? Now that we’ve defined these players’ respective roles with the help of TOI data, can we confidently say that Don Granato has deployed his defensive forwards in an optimal way? Given the injury circumstances (which have plagued the Sabres for most of the year), I would say that he has.

The TOI data shows that Asplund has served most predominantly as a defensively competent winger on scoring lines for most of the year. He has spent about two-thirds of his even-strength time in this role. A true complementary piece to offset linemates with clear defensive shortcomings.

The data tells us that his presence helps immensely in this regard. Of the eight Sabres forwards with whom Asplund has played for at least 50 minutes this season, he’s had a positive xGF impact on seven of them. Most of these upticks are significant (sometimes more than 10%).

While his base scoring numbers won’t jump off the page, he’s still on pace for a career-high 28-point season. Given how well Girgensons and Okposo can handle shutdown minutes regardless of who plays down the middle, saddling Asplund on that line would be nonsensically redundant.

Full marks to Granato for moving away from this idea after trying it for a short while. Because of the team’s current injury luck (or lack thereof), Asplund is back with Okposo, but they are flanking Casey Mittelstadt as their centerman.

Though this trio has only played a couple of games together so far, they’re crushing their expected goal share with an xGF rate of 69.98% right now. The sample is incredibly small, but it’s enough to warrant an extended look for this trio. Again, deploying defensively-shaky centers with competent two-way wingers has been a trend under Granato and it has yielded strong results.

Okposo has served up and down the lineup, though it does seem like when the team is healthy (rarely the case this season), he defaults back to a shutdown line role. I refer to Okposo as sort of a chameleon winger in the sense that he can transform his game based on whatever is required of him at that time.

If he needs to play shutdown defense, he can contribute. If he needs to help chase pucks and win board battles with more offensively skilled forwards, he can handle that as well. Though his overall defensive RAPM metrics have dipped a bit from his “LOG Line” days, he’s providing value in transition to offset it. Only Dylan Cozens has been more effective at flipping the ice this season in Buffalo.

As for Girgensons, he has served almost exclusively on said shutdown line, regardless of how healthy the forward ranks have been. With the understanding that this is mostly out of necessity, I would like to see how he fares in a similar role to Asplund.

While the 28-year-old is probably the best defensive forward on the team, he has the speed and forechecking energy to help a young center like Cozens, or even Peyton Krebs if they transition him back to a pivot spot at some point.

Unless you want to get nitpicky, it’s tough to be dissatisfied with how Granato is utilizing his two-way forwards this season. Depending on who he has healthy and at his disposal, he’s done a nice job of balancing skillsets, while also leaving himself a dependable shutdown line to absorb some tougher matchups.

The only real “knock” here is his insistence on playing Cody Eakin in critical situations (or at all), but that’s not completely his fault. Like it or not, Eakin is a trade piece and the Sabres will want to boost his value ahead of the trade deadline. While someone like Mark Jankowski would be undoubtedly better suited for the fourth-line center role in Buffalo, Granato has done a decent enough job “sheltering” Eakin with solid wingers (as explained above with Okposo and Girgensons) who can cover some of his shortcomings.

Inherent Value & Closing Thoughts

Being a defensive winger in the NHL is often a thankless job. These players tend not to appear on the score sheet with any degree of regularity, and fans typically have low opinions of them as a result.

Additionally, other factors are working against the players we’ve discussed here. Girgensons is a former 14^th-overall draft choice. Asplund is a high second-round pick. Okposo makes $6 million per year. The expectations for all three of them were beyond that of a complimentary defensive winger, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t effective NHL players.

The trick is putting these entities in positions where their skill set is not only maximized individually but results in an overall impact boost for their entire line. In that regard, Granato has done a nice job keeping things fluid and finding ways to make these players a key part of his tactical approach.

Advanced Metrics and TOI Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, JFresh Hockey, and Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images