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Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch have turned the Sabres’ power play around

The Buffalo Sabres’ power play was a major problem in the first half of the season. Not only because it wasn’t producing, but it was also giving up goals against at a historically bad rate.

Once Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs entered the lineup full-time, that special teams unit took a turn. To be clear, their power play unit hasn’t transformed into some powerhouse. The change we’re seeing now is them going from historically bad to roughly league average this season.

Numbers

When I say that the Sabres were performing at a historically bad level on the power play, it’s not an exaggeration. According to the numbers, they had some of the worst in the league over the last 10 years in shot quality for and overall quality share with the man advantage.

Through the first 32 games of the season, the Sabres held a 4.60 expected goals for per 60 minutes rating on the power play, according to Evolving Hockey. No team over the last 10 years held a shot quality for rating that low with the man advantage.

But wait there’s more.

They had the second-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes over the last 10 years. Only the 2018-19 Boston Bruins gave up higher quality looks against.

When you put all of that together the Sabres had a 75% expected goal share on the power play during the first part of the season. As you’d expect, that is the lowest expected goal share on the power play any team has had in the last 10 years in the twins’ model. The next closest was the 2018-19 Bruins at 81%.

In terms of shots alone, the Sabres had the second-lowest shots attempted and the third-lowest unblocked shots attempted over the first 32 games.

Now, combine all of that with the fact that they struggled with entering the zone and setting up their power play. According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, they have a 25% setup per entry attempt rate. That’s the lowest of the league. This is actually one of the areas that have not improved with the addition of Krebs and Tuch.

In summation, we can clearly see there were a lot of issues with the Sabres’ power play over the first 32 games. Since the calendar flipped to 2022, the power play unit has become more effective.

Since January 1st, they’re 22nd in expected goals for per 60 minutes. They also have the sixth-lowest expected goals against on the power play. They’ve been able to create more quality looks and have drastically reduced short-handed opportunities against.

The Sabres have also improved their shot efficiency with the man advantage. Since the beginning of the year, they rank 17th in both all shot attempts (CF) and unblocked shot attempts for (FF) per 60 minutes.

Utilizing the Entire Zone

We’ve established the improvement, but you may be asking yourself why do Krebs and Tuch get the credit here. Well, the answer is simple. They’ve introduced two things to the power play that the Sabres didn’t have until they showed up.

Tuch is a puck retriever and a legitimate threat in the “bumper” spot on the power play. For those that don’t know, the bumper spot is referred to as the player that is in the middle of the setup.

Krebs has given them a player on the wall that is not thinking shoot first. He’s a playmaker that has unlocked a willingness to use the other players on the ice that are set up below the goal line. Krebs also has a good understanding of passing lanes and how to set up defenders to open cross-ice lanes.

You can see in both of the isolated impact charts from Micah McCurdy above that the Sabres are getting shooting opportunities in the middle of the ice and down around the left side of the zone by the net because Krebs is consistently finding that high to low, cross-ice pass.

Before the arrival of Krebs and Tuch, the Sabres’ plan with the man advantage was to set up a one-timer shooting opportunity on the wall for either Tage Thompson or Victor Olofsson. Those are the only two players that would really touch the puck when the top unit was on the ice, along with Rasmus Dahlin. Here is how the power play looks in Micah’s model without Krebs on the ice.

Those three would play a game of catch before one of them unloaded a low percentage shot that you hoped for the best out of. Nothing in the middle of the ice below the face off dots. You’ll see a video example of this below.

This approach made it easier for their opponents to defend and pressure those three players. It resulted in more turnovers. Thus the inflated expected goals against on the power play in the first part of the year.

Now, let me show you how the power play looks now with utilizing the entire offensive zone and other players on the ice with good passing.

Example 1:

Example 2:

The Sabres’ power play is never going to be at the top of the league until they figure out how to successfully enter the zone consistently to set up their structure. However, they now have a unit that can be effective when they can set up in the offensive zone.

Data via: Corey Sznajder, Evolving Hockey, and Hockeyviz.com
Photo Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

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