With just a few short weeks until the Buffalo Sabres play their first preseason game, it’s time to start examining the roster. In particular, it’s the center position that holds the most open-ended set of potential outcomes. Now that Sam Reinhart has been traded and Jack Eichel remains unavailable (i.e. mired in omnipresent trade and surgical drama), the Sabres are very thin down the middle.

At the start of the offseason, there was consensus speculation that a pivot reinforcement would come back as part of a seemingly inevitable Eichel trade. At the very least, an inexpensive minute-eater via free agent like Derek Stepan would have helped insulate some of the club’s younger forwards.

Obviously, none of that happened. Eichel is still on the ledger, and the Sabres didn’t really bring in any bonafide centermen from the free-agent market. So, with the roster, as it currently stands, what are the Sabres’ options at the position?

Let’s dive in and take a look.

CENTER LOCKS

We’ll start by identifying the two players who are virtual locks to assume center duties in 2021-22. As of today, Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt are safe bets to appear down the middle (likely in the top-six forward group).

Both players made strides last season. Cozens put together an impressive rookie campaign while Mittelstadt came on late (following Ralph Krueger’s ousting) and finished the year strong. While the underlying impacts don’t look particularly attractive on paper, there is some promise moving forward (particularly in Cozens’ case).

Last week, Mittelstadt signed a three-year, $2.5 million AAV contract extension. The Sabres clearly rewarded the 22-year-old for his strong play under Don Granato. Given the team’s lack of depth down the middle, he might start the year as the first-line center.

As for Cozens, the charts don’t really tell the whole story. After Buffalo lost Eichel due to injury last season, the 19-year-old was thrust into serving as the de facto second-line center behind Reinhart. You’ll notice that the chart above also shows a disparity between his GAR and xGAR production. That’s actually a good thing.

Historically, over large samples, xGAR tends to “regress” toward actual GAR. If the metrics were flipped in this case, it would be a bit more concerning. Still, there is a lot of room for improvement and fans will watch closely for marked signs of growth in 2021-22 where he’ll undoubtedly serve in a key role.

The Other Guys

Cozens and Mittelstadt will occupy two of the four starting center positions on opening night. So, what are the options for the Sabres’ vacant bottom-six pivot positions? As it stands, Cody Eakin is the only other “natural centerman” on the team (yes, that felt gross to write out).

Given the fact that Granato seemed to have little use for Eakin toward the end of last season, it lends to reason that he might not be in the second-year coach’s plans. If that theory holds, Granato will need to choose from the rest of his NHL forward crop, most of whom have either never played center at the NHL level, or haven’t served in that role in several seasons.

Zemgus Girgensons

Girgensons is the only other player on the roster with significant experience playing down the middle (at the NHL level at least). Over the first four years of his NHL career, he served primarily at center (half of that time came during the infamous “tank” years).

If we look at his underlying metrics from that time, it paints a very ugly picture on paper. It is worth noting however that, as a player in his early-20’s he was expected to lug around linemates like Matt Moulson, Brian Flynn, and a struggling Tyler Ennis.

The Girgensons line also played against top-end competition from 2013-2015. That’s likely part of the reason that his relative xGF rate in that span (+8.41%) looks significantly more attractive than his actual xGF rate (44.69%).

After missing the entire 2020-21 season, throwing Girgensons back into a role he hasn’t played in nearly four years might not be a great approach. That said, the Sabres may not have much choice, and could simply defer experiencing to start the year.

Vinnie Hinostroza

Though he is listed as a center by certain outlets, Hinostroza has played primarily on the wing throughout his five-year NHL career. The reason I find him particularly intriguing as an option is because of his proclivity as an excellent puck-carrying transition forward.

In a relatively small sample with the Chicago Blackhawks last season (17 games, to be exact), the 27-year-old led the team in both zone-entries per-60 and carry-in rate on offense. The good news is that he was similarly productive in that area during the 2019-20 season with the Arizona Coyotes where he appeared in 68 contests. Of his teammates at forward that year, only Taylor Hall fared better as a zone-entry entity.

Since 2018, Hinostroza has posted consistently strong defensive impacts. Pair that with his aforementioned talents in transition, and he could make for a sneaky-good defensively-deployed option down the middle.

Arttu Ruotsalainen

Though the entirety of Ruotsalainen’s North American experience has come on the wing, he played a great deal of center during his time with Ilves in Liiga. There is no question about the 23-year-old’s offensive acumen, but he hasn’t quite shown the two-way skill set that would be required of him on the Sabres.

Ideally, if the team were to move him back to center, he’d need to be sheltered and play alongside linemates who could help handle defensive responsibilities. He’d also probably need a pretty heavy offensive deployment rate, and a solid playmaking winger to help maximize his excellent finishing ability.

That’s a lot of circumstances, and with a pretty distinct lack of experienced talent at forward, it might be difficult to facilitate. Conversely, he’s accustomed to the position, and this could be another situation where the Sabres coaching staff sees that as a significant factor.

Rasmus Asplund

Asplund is really interesting to think about here. As a rookie during the 2019-20 campaign, he played a fair bit of center in his 29-game campaign with the big club. Before that, he served primarily as a center with the Rochester Americans.

As a rookie, his center duties were mostly as a replacement for Johan Larsson as he recovered from injury. Even though both players were known as defensive entities, the skill contrast was obvious, and Asplund’s underlying metrics were rather pedestrian. On top of that, his base scoring rate of eight points over an 82-game season was downright dreadful.

After transitioning to the wing for the 2020-21 season, the 23-year-old flourished alongside offensively skilled centers like Mittelstadt. In fact, there is good reason to believe that Asplund’s assumption of defensive responsibilities was a critical factor in the Mittelstadt line’s success to close out last season.

There is certainly a chance that after another year of development, he could aptly switch back to his natural position. Still, he’s so useful on the wing, and it might be hard to justify moving him away from a role where he finally showed that he could carve out a productive NHL career.

Drake Caggiula

Rounding out the list is a relatively unconventional option in Caggiula. Though he hasn’t played center since his rookie season with the Edmonton Oilers (2016-17), he made positive impacts in a defensive deployment role.

In fact, his xGA/60 rate of 2.06 that season was the best of his career to date. Unlike Hinostroza, Caggiula hasn’t historically excelled as a transition player. It’s part of the reason that, while he was good at scoring-chance prevention as a member of the Oilers, his line struggled to generate anything offensively.

Still, there is no denying his defensive acumen and with the right linemates (perhaps Hinostroza if they elect to keep him on the wing), it could be made to work.

Preference and Prediction

Now that we’ve examined the candidates, I’ll dive into both what I’d like to see happen here, and what I predict will occur in reality.

With Cozens and Mittelstadt handling top-six duties, it lends to reason that one (maybe both) of the bottom-six lines will need to handle a lion’s share of defensive deployments. For that reason, I believe that one of Hinostroza or Caggiula should serve as the defensive line’s primary pivot.

It doesn’t really matter to me which one, as long as the other serves as a winger on that same line. If I had to choose, give me Hinostroza down the middle with Caggiula flanking him.

As for the other open center slot, it’s really tough to exclude Girgensons, given his experience. That said, I need the Sabres to at least take an extended look at Ruotsalainen. In what is obviously a rebuilding year, it only makes sense for the coaching staff to see what their young assets are capable of so they can better plan for the future.

Although Phil Housley and Ralph Krueger never really allowed their forwards to switch positions mid-season, Granato seems like the type to try and experiment. If that’s the case, I imagine we’ll see a sort of rotation at center, specifically if a player who starts the year there begins to struggle.

Granato’s presence is part of the reason that, while I don’t love the Sabres’ situation down the middle, I am excited to see how it gets handled. He showed in a small window that he has no problem mixing things up when they aren’t working.

Regardless, it’ll still be interesting to see who elects to roll with on the opening night, assuming Kevyn Adams doesn’t add another asset before then, of course.

Photo credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images