It’s probably fair to say that no other player on the shortlist for our Expected Development series carries as much intrigue as Dylan Cozens. As the team’s de facto top centerman heading into 2021-22, the 20-year-old enters the years with high expectations.

During his rookie campaign last season, Cozens impressed fans with his speed, forechecking, and added physicality he brought to the top-six on a nightly basis. If there was any lingering doubt about the Sabres’ decision to select him ahead of names like Trevor Zegras or Cole Caufield in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, those skepticisms were largely silenced.

For everything Cozens did well in his inaugural season, there are areas of his game that need refinement. Let’s take a look at what he did well in 2020-21, and what he needs to work to improve as he takes the next step in his development with the rebuilding Sabres.

Strengths

Unlike our last article in this series which featured Tage Thompson, you don’t need to look very far to find where Cozens excels in the metrics. As I’ve frequently stated (both in my written work and on the Expected Buffalo Podcast), transitional proclivity is something I always look at more closely when evaluating young centers.

As both a forechecker and an offensive facilitator off the rush, he was one of the most efficient and effective Sabres forwards last season. Only Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall registered more effective carry-in rates, and entries per-60.

As mentioned in the Thompson article, NHL teams have a historically higher propensity to score off the rush (versus set plays). Knowing that I was intrigued by the fact that, despite Cozens’ strong microstats in transition, his raw expected offensive numbers were still somewhat pedestrian.

Part of the reason for this likely has to do with his linemates. There exists a pretty stark contrast between Cozens’ high-danger passing proficiency (which was very high) versus his most common linemates’ ability to translate said passes into shot attempts.

As you can see from the chart above, Cozens ranked fourth among Sabres forwards in high-danger passes per-60. The y-axis tracks which Sabres had the most success creating shots as a result of high-danger passes. Of the six Sabres forwards who ranked above the league average in this regard, the only one Cozens spent any significant time with was Eric Staal (130 minutes at five-on-five).

Taylor Hall, who was one of Cozens’ most common linemates, was by far the best high-danger passer on the team last season. Having that redundancy isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but where there is no third entity to create shots off their high-danger passes, the skill is neutralized to a degree.

This discussion then leads to an examination of Cozens’ quality of teammate versus quality of competition. At first glance, there is a disparity in those rates, but nothing that seems too crazy (see chart in the opening section for reference). The fact that his QoC rate was higher than his QoT is a good thing and indicates a difficult workload.

Though the delta between the two rates seems rather slim, there is a necessary contextualization to be made in the sense that rookie centermen are often sheltered in this area. What that means is – traditionally speaking, first-year pivots are often deployed with QoT rates that far outweigh their QoC. Cozens experienced no such sheltering.

Again, this serves as another conceivable “disadvantage” that needs to be applied to his baseline offensive impacts. Cozens is an excellent case study on the value of compounding contextual disadvantages, and how microstats are necessary to fairly analyze baseline impacts like xGF and the like.

Weaknesses

This section is a little more tricky than it was with Thompson, and it’s not just because of the obvious talent disparity. Thompson has three full seasons of NHL experience to pull from. The sample size helps to truly “define” his flaws. Conversely, Cozens’ single season (a shortened one at that) of data exhibits negative impact sections, but it’s probably unfair to establish them as concrete “weaknesses” at this point.

On a surface level, the glaring metric that jumps out as particularly bad is his on-ice xGA rate at even-strength. The Sabres got shellacked while he was deployed. Again, to determine the legitimacy of this information, the QoT and QoC factor needs to be applied on top of things like OZS rate (45.90% last season).

Not only was Cozens playing against the top-end competition, but his line was often starting in the defensive zone. In principle, this isn’t a bad approach by the coaching staff (considering Cozens and Hall’s respective transitional proficiencies) but certainly won’t help make the raw xGA numbers look pretty.

I don’t want this to sound like I’m absolving Cozens of any blame here. There were instances where he looked his age in the defensive zone. I’m simply pointing out that there are factors that certainly didn’t work in his favor and must be considered.

To summarize, fans should look for Cozens to work toward becoming part of the solution in this regard. If he is going to be a top-line center in this league, he needs to be able to elevate his linemates despite the factors weighted against them. That’s a big ask of a second-year player who will inevitably be thrust into similarly difficult circumstances next season. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but there needs to be some tangible improvement here in year two.

2021-22 OBJECTIVE

I’ll put this plainly. Cozens established himself as an offensively competent NHL asset last season. There’s no denying that point, and his xGAR numbers should trend toward his actual GAR numbers (which were much higher) as a result.

What we need to see is a “rounding out” of his game. Offensive centermen are great, but top-six pivots need to have a defensive component to their game (unless their team can shelter them with a defensively competent winger, similar to how Don Granato deployed Rasmus Asplund beside Casey Mittelstadt last season).

Unfortunately, the 2021-22 Sabres don’t have the winger depth (or talent) to facilitate that. The responsibility will rest on Cozens’ shoulders to a degree. Seeing him take that step and make tangible strides in his two-way game should be the main objective.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, JFresh Hockey, Corey Sznajder, and Hockeyviz

Linemate TOI and Deployment Rates courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo credit: Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images