Usually, Anthony and I agree on most hockey opinions, but we had our rare disagreement on Twitter about acquiring Andreas Athanasiou in exchange for Brandon Montour. I felt as though the Buffalo Sabres should make that deal if there are no other options. Anthony, on the other hand, felt the Sabres were better off taking a third-round pick and cap space.

Thus a new form of content was born, Expected Buffalo Faceoff. Anthony and I will share our thoughts on why our side of the argument is correct.

Anthony

For a team in the Sabres’ situation, flipping Montour for Athanasiou doesn’t feel like the most optimal course of action. Looking beyond Athanasiou’s poor metrics (which, let’s face it, is the case with almost everyone on the Detroit Red Wings), this boils down to finance and flexibility.

On Twitter, the scenario posed to us was whether we’d rather trade Montour for Athanasiou, or instead, a third-round pick from a mystery team. According to Evolving Hockey, the 26-year-old speedster is projected to command around $3.5 million as a pending RFA. That’s a hefty price for a player who would essentially be a gamble for a Sabres team that needs established offensive production in the worst way.

So, if Buffalo elected to instead take the third-round pick, they could take that theoretical $3.5 million they would have paid to extend Athanasiou, and instead, spend it on an unrestricted asset that is more provably impactful (and therefore less of a risk). Some of the UFA names that fall into a similar price range according to EH are Jesper Fast ($2.9 million projected AAV), Matt Nieto ($3.55 million projected AAV), and Mattias Janmark ($3.47 million projected AAV). You could make a very strong argument for all three of them as better players than Athanasiou.

To go a step further, the Sabres could put said cap space toward making a push for a truly excellent player in Nashville Predators’ pending UFA forward, Craig Smith, who is expected to command about $4.4 million on the open market. As for the third-round pick, I don’t really care what they do with it. Use it, include it in a larger package, etc.

The key here is flexibility. The Sabres have to carefully navigate the salary cap while also adding more than a few roster reinforcements. Spending $3.5 million on a boom-or-bust type like Athanasiou seems ill-advised, given the circumstances. Smart money says to take the financial relief (and the draft choice) and make a push for a more demonstrably valuable piece on the open market.

Chad

I get what Anthony is saying, but he’s wrong.

Athanasiou is by no means a perfect player, but he would bring speed, as well as some offensive ability to the Sabres. I think a lot of people underestimate his impact offensively. You can see in Micah’s isolated impact below that he has value offensively.

You can also see above that Athanasiou does a great job drawing penalties for his team with his speed. According to Evolving Hockey, he was top 35 among all forwards to play at least 300 minutes in penalties drawn per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 in two of the last three years.

The 26-year-old was also one of the top offensive creators for the Detroit Red Wings over the last four years. He was no worse than second on the Red Wings in individual shot quality at 5 on 5 in three of the last four years, according to Moneypuck.

At best, Athanasiou is a middle-six winger that can infuse some speed into the lineup and generate some offense. I don’t think he’s going to replicate his 2018-19 season when he scored 30 goals. However, he can be a 15 goal and 30 point player in the right role.

I don’t see the value in taking a third-round pick when a player you’d trade that third-round pick for is sitting right there as an option. You’re taking an asset that has below a 20% chance of becoming an NHL player if you make the pick and likely isn’t going to get you any type of major impact player in a trade.

I’ll take the impact now over a roll of the dice that I have to wait for years to see any type of significant impact.

Photo Credit: Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Moneypuck