I recently wrote about some trade options for the Dallas Stars in the offseason. We’ll keep that train going today by discussing a Stars unrestricted free agent forward that the Buffalo Sabres could have interest in.

Mattias Janmark is an intriguing option as a forward that can step in to replace some spots in the bottom six of the Sabres lineup that could be vacated by a few players leaving the organization in free agency.  The issue with the 27-year-old forward is if he’ll be worth the projected price tag on the open market.

Shooting Talent

According to Evolving Hockey, he’s projected to receive a four-year contract with a $3.46 million cap hit

Looking through is production over this four-year career is interesting. His first two years in the league he scored 15 and 19 goals respectively. In the last two years, however, he has only scored six goals in each season. His shooting percentage went from 14% in the first two years to 5.7% and 7% in the last two.

I’m a sucker for interesting data points like this, so I wanted to see if I could figure out which of these two years were real. I took a deeper look into his shot quality and shooting talent.

In four seasons with the Stars, Janmark has finished no higher than fourth-lowest on the team among all forwards to play at least 300 minutes in individual shot quality at 5 on 5, according to Moneypuck. This tells us that he’s not the type of player that gets to quality scoring areas.

If a player has above-average shooting talent they can outperform their shot quality. Similar to what we see with Victor Olofsson. Unfortunately, Janmark doesn’t possess even average level shooting talent. Moneypuck projects him at -3.3% below average shooting talent. This past season he shot 2.9 goals below expected at 5 on 5, but he’s expected goals rating based on shot quality was only 5.9.

Therefore when you have a player that doesn’t get to quality scoring areas and has below-average shooting percentage, we can surmise that the most recent years are likely an accurate indication of his future production.

Overpriced Option

As you can see above in Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact chart, that the offensive side of the game matches what we discovered in Mockeypuck’s shooting data.

Where Janmark could be a serviceable addition for the Sabres is his impact on the defensive side of the game. Essentially the Swedish forward would be a replacement for Zemgus Girengsons. They have a similar skillset and it could be a seamless transition on the fourth line if Kevyn Adams and Ralph Krueger want to keep a revamped defensively deployed fourth line intact.

While in theory, the player fills a need in the bottom of the Sabres lineup, it doesn’t make sense from a salary cap perspective. It’s likely the could get similar results from a younger player like Arttu Ruotsalainen or a cheaper free-agent acquisition.

Data via: Hockeyviz.com, Moneypuck, and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images