It’s no secret that the Buffalo Sabres have glaring needs at center. Even if Johan Larsson is retained (which is far from imminent), Kevyn Adams needs to add at least one pivot to his depth chart for the 2020-21 season. For that reason, we’ve put a particular focus on the which UFA centers the Sabres could pursue if reinforcements cannot be acquired via trade.

Coming off his third full NHL season with the Vegas Golden Knights, Tomas Nosek is one potential UFA forward Buffalo could consider. While he has proven to be a positive impact presence in the Golden Knights’ bottom-six, would his particular skill set be a fit with the Sabres? Let’s dive into the metrics to find out.

In a somewhat sheltered role, Nosek has posted relatively consistent metrics. Despite only posting 15 points in 67 games, his xG rate of 54.73-percent this season ranked near the middle of the pack among Vegas forwards. That being said, he also had one of the higher OZS rates on his team at around 62-percent on the year.

In digging actual versus expected production, for three consecutive seasons now, his raw GF rate has been far lower than his expected rate. While he does a great job of producing his own shots, as well as a high rate of primary shot assists, he and his linemates just couldn’t finish with any consistency. He also seems to have been carrying the load in terms of offensive transition, which again makes you wonder if his linemates have held him back to an extent.

When you consider the fact that Nosek spent nearly 73-percent of his even-strength minutes last season alongside Ryan Reaves, you can see why his base stats don’t really match his individual shot data. On the opposite side, William Carrier was his second-most common wingman in 2019-20.

None of these three players possess any discernible finishing ability. Perhaps Nosek would have better base numbers if he had centered at least one goal-scoring winger for an extended stretch, but even in 2018-19, that really wasn’t the case. This situation is vaguely comparable to what the Sabres have experienced with the Larsson line. Obviously, their respective deployments are very different, but the GF versus xGF contrast is similar due to a lack of finishing ability.

Offensive possession is great, especially for a defensive shutdown unit, which is why the “LOG Line” has been so valuable. For a trio that starts primarily in the offensive-zone however, the lack of production from Nosek’s line doesn’t compensate by shutting down their opponent’s top-scoring forwards (like the Larsson line has done so effectively).

It’s the primary reason why the prospect of Nosek serving as a potential replacement on the fourth line is shaky. Even if the Sabres wanted to go into 2020-21 with a more balanced zone deployment approach on the fourth-line, they have no other defensively capable centers to help accommodate such a strategy. This isn’t to say that Nosek would definitely fail in a defensive role, but it would be a major transition from what he’s been asked to do in Vegas.

On top of the concerns surrounding where Nosek would fit into the lineup, his anticipated demands on the UFA market are equally deterring. According to Evolving Hockey, his ask will likely land in the four-year, $2.6 million AAV range. That’s only a shade less than what they anticipate for Larsson, a demonstrably more impactful asset.

Even if Buffalo does end up needing a replacement pivot on the fourth line, someone like Curtis Lazar or even Arttu Ruotsalainen could conceivably provide comparable impacts to Nosek for less-than half the cost. That’s not so much an indictment of the player, but more so the Sabres’ current roster (and salary cap) situation.

It seems odd to suggest Adams turn his nose up at an analytically positive centerman, but for the anticipated price, he’d be better off pursuing a proven two-way option who can thrive in a defensively-tilted role (especially if Larsson signs elsewhere).

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